Week 5 brings the start of bye weeks, which means that fantasy football managers will need to build out their depth to keep their records afloat. With the likes of Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery on bye, several managers could use help at running back.
Rico Dowdle and Chase Brown were two backs who found the end zone on Sunday. According to Pro Football Network’s Start/Sit Optimizer, Dowdle is the slightly superior option, with a projection of 7.3 points compared to 5.3 for Brown.
Below, we take a look at the case between the two and why you should lean toward PFN’s projections if debating between the pair.
Should You Add Rico Dowdle or Chase Brown in Week 5?
This comes down to a volume vs. explosiveness dilemma. Dowdle has enjoyed the superior workload, taking 40% of the Dallas Cowboys’ rush attempts this season compared to 32% for Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals.
However, Brown has averaged 6.3 yards per rush compared to 3.9 for Dowdle, and he actually has more rush yards as a result (184 to 134). He also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, both from Week 4 against Carolina, compared to none for Dowdle (though the latter did have a receiving TD versus the New York Giants).
Chase Brown's role is growing over the last three games:
Snaps: 18%, 23%, 42%
Attempts: 20%, 37%, 48%
Routes: 12%, 12%, 34%Also handled 2 of 3 carries inside the five yard line in Week 4.
Bengals coaching staff said this was a 1A/1B all summer, might finally be happening.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024
Both have difficult matchups — Dowdle faces a Pittsburgh Steelers team that ranks second in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Meanwhile, Brown faces a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks fifth against running backs, so the matchup factor is essentially a wash.
One factor that might tip the scales toward Dowdle over Brown is the game script. The Bengals are likely to be slight underdogs against the Ravens, which could spell trouble for Brown. Zack Moss has taken 74% of the offensive snaps in dropback situations this season for the Bengals. In contrast, it’s been much more even on designed runs (64% for Moss, 37% for Brown).
In addition, playing time has been much more consistent for Dowdle. The Cowboys’ back has played between 44% and 47% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in every game this season, giving him a higher floor. Brown played a season-high 41% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps in Week 4, but that would represent a season-low for Dowdle.
And even though Dowdle’s snaps have remained consistent, his share of the backfield carries has actually increased as Ezekiel Elliott appears to be getting marginalized:
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 1 and 2: 32.0% and 33.3%
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 3 and 4: 61.5% and 61.1%
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 30, 2024
Both Dowdle and Brown are running backs on the rise and could conceivably be the clear starters on their respective teams by midseason. But for this week, both face tough matchups that limit their overall ceilings. In that case, Dowdle’s higher floor might be the more palatable option for fantasy managers.