Entering the season, the consensus opinion was that Rhamondre Stevenson was the most worthwhile fantasy football option in any other desolate New England Patriots offense. Stevenson lived up to that billing with a tremendous Week 1 performance against the Cincinnati Bengals but has curiously tailed off amid ball security problems.
For the season, Stevenson ranks 23rd among running backs in fantasy points per game (9.5) and has totaled 8.5 points over the last two weeks combined. Using the Pro Football Network Trade Analyzer, we examine whether Stevenson’s managers should bail on the Patriots’ running back and what they should look for in return if they do.
Should Fantasy Football Managers Trade Rhamondre Stevenson?
Trading Stevenson right now would be a clear sell-low but could also be getting ahead of his value plummeting even further. The fourth-year pro has fumbled in five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. While the Patriots have not declared a benching or backfield split, it’s worth noting that he’s played just 52% of the snaps in the last two games after taking 75% of the snaps in the first two weeks.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson fumbles for the fourth straight game…
Bench him.pic.twitter.com/7OeLtT3V31
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 29, 2024
Some of that is game script-related, as Stevenson will cede some snaps to Antonio Gibson in clear passing situations. But that’s not promising for a Patriots team that will likely trail in the majority of its games this season. According to FantasyPros, New England has the sixth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule for running backs as well.
The ideal situation for fantasy managers would be to see Stevenson play a strong game or two before moving off of what will likely be a volatile week-to-week player. The Patriots’ schedule does ease up in the coming weeks, with a home game upcoming against a Miami Dolphins team playing on a short week.
Miami ranks 29th in fantasy PPG allowed to running backs this season, so Stevenson’s managers can potentially hold on for another week in hopes of a bounce-back effort.
What Should Fantasy Managers Look To Acquire When Trading Stevenson?
According to the Pro Football Network Trade Analyzer, a roughly equal trade at the moment would be for Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard. Pollard got off to a slow start on his new team but had a much more efficient game in Week 4 versus the Dolphins.
Part of that likely stems from Mason Rudolph replacing Will Levis due to injury and stabilizing what had been the most turnover-prone offense in the league.
Stevenson actually has a string of relatively favorable matchups leading into his Week 14 bye, so it’s conceivable that his value could become higher as we approach most fantasy trade deadlines.
The Patriots’ last three games before their Week 14 bye are against the Los Angeles Rams, Dolphins, and Indianapolis Colts. All of those teams currently rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing defense, a potential selling point in trade negotiations.
The other factor to consider is the likelihood of Drake Maye taking over at quarterback at some point this season. While it’s hard to imagine a much lower floor than what the Jacoby Brissett-led offense has delivered the last two weeks, Maye does not profile as a polished prospect capable of immediately elevating the Patriots offense.
However, the rookie’s presence could also lead to a greater reliance on Stevenson, provided his ball security problems get rectified.
Stevenson represents a risky week-to-week option that could be facing a short rope in the interim. That makes his short-term fantasy value shaky in trades, but if his managers can hang on a little longer, he could net a better return in a couple weeks.