The Baltimore Ravens have experienced a roller-coaster 2024 season but entered the playoffs with a four-game winning streak.
Now, after defeating their AFC-North-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round, let’s examine the Ravens’ opponent in the Divisional Round.
Who Do the Baltimore Ravens Play in the Divisional Round?
After the Buffalo Bills defeated the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round, the Ravens and Bills will now face off in the Divisional Round at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo.
This was always the most likely scenario in PFN’s model, and now fans will be treated to a battle of the top-two MVP candidates: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
We do not yet know what day or time the game will take place, which will be announced before Monday’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings is over.
Here is the updated NFL playoff bracket now that the AFC matchups are decided:
Could the Ravens Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require the Bills and Chiefs losing before AFC Championship Game, since Buffalo and Kansas City is seeded higher than Baltimore.
In the case of the Bills, the Ravens will have to take care of that themselves. Baltimore and Buffalo will face off in a matchup of the top two MVP candidates in Jackson and Allen. The two also met in the 2020 Divisional Round in Buffalo, with the Bills prevailing 17-3 after Jackson left the game in the third quarter with a concussion.
However, the Ravens would still be dependent on a lower seed upsetting the two-time defending Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs will face the Texans in the Divisional Round, and Kansas City will be a significant home favorite.
The only teams seeded third or lower to host a Conference Championship since 2000 are the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed), 2008 Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 seed), and 2006 Indianapolis Colts (No. 3 seed). All three of those teams won to advance to the Super Bowl.
What Were the Ravens’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 3 seed, there were two potential opponents for the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The two teams they could not face in the Divisional Round were the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs.
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Therefore, the Ravens couldn’t host the Broncos next round because Baltimore couldn’t be the highest-seeded team standing after the Wild Card round. They also couldn’t see the Chiefs yet because the Ravens can’t be the lowest-seeded team remaining either.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Ravens’ most likely opponent was always the Buffalo Bills. With the No. 2 seed favored to beat the Broncos at home (61.8%), the Ravens and Bills would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
There was a 61.8% chance that the Ravens played their Divisional Round game in Buffalo. The Ravens had a 38.2% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket: Divisional Round Schedule, Playoff Seeds, Matchups
As outlined above, the Ravens will face the second-seeded Bills since Buffalo won at home against Denver. At that point, the Texans’ win over the Chargers is irrelevant to Baltimore’s Divisional Round destination.
Had the Broncos pulled off the road upset, Baltimore would have faced the Texans. That’s due to Denver being the lowest-seeded team in the AFC field, which means the Broncos would have automatically drawn the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
A Broncos win would have resulted in the Ravens hosting a Divisional Round game instead of heading on the road.
The Ravens played the Bills during the regular season and demolished them 35-10. It was Buffalo’s largest loss of the regular season.
