The Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 16 matchup could have huge ramifications for the AFC West, but which players will be the ones who stand out? Our NFL betting experts give their top player prop bets for this Raiders vs. Chiefs game based on what value the current odds offer.
Top Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: First things first — a healthy Patrick Mahomes. As much as this team wants to play well down the stretch, a healthy Mahomes is their path to playoff success.
With that in mind, Mahomes being held under 10 rushing yards in three of four games (after reaching 20 rushing yards in nine of 10) isn’t that shocking to me.
The Raiders are bottom three in both pressure rate and opponent aDOT. Without the ability to create chaos in the backfield, Mahomes is unlikely to have motivation to run, and the short depth of opponent target suggests that they play umbrella coverage that encourages dink-and-dunk passing.
I’m reading that as the short pass supplementing Mahomes’ rush attempts, and where do those short attempts go?
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-130 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Rashee Rice has come on of late, and I’m 100% on board with his breakout. That said, his catch prop is higher than that of Travis Kelce’s, the GOAT tight end who has 6+ catches in nine of his past 12 games.
Kansas City controls the clock, scores on a consistent basis, and reminds us that this Las Vegas offense is far more limited than what we saw last Thursday night.
Travis Kelce Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Derek Tate: Kelce has still been among the most productive tight ends this season, but his production isn’t head and shoulders above everyone else at the position like it has been in the past.
One could argue that Father Time could be tapping Kelce on the shoulder. Nevertheless, he’s still a force when the Chiefs’ offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Kelce’s receiving line feels quite low because of his 28-yard outing in Week 15 against the New England Patriots. He has also failed to top 60 yards receiving in four out of his last seven games, which makes this line pretty fair, to be honest.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Raiders have been allowing an average of 51 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, but Kelce did drop 91 against this same defense back in Week 12.
With the Chiefs still in the mix for home-field advantage in the AFC and Kelce coming off of his worst performances of the season, expect him to be very involved early in this contest and deliver a vintage Kelce performance in Week 16.
Isiah Pacheco Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at ESPNBet)
Ben Rolfe:Â Isiah Pacheco will return in Week 16 after missing the last two games. He’s coming off a shoulder injury that required a “cleanup surgery” after having had a larger surgery on his shoulder during the offseason.
Pacheco should be back as the starter, but my concern here is how much the Chiefs lean on their main RB in his first game back.
The vision for Kansas City this season is much bigger than Week 16. They’re one win away from potentially clinching the AFC West and don’t need to lean on Pacheco heavily here. This could end up being a scenario where we see Pacheco handle some work in crucial spots, but he splits time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The Chiefs need Pacheco fully healthy for their playoff run, so running him into a stout Raiders’ defense 15+ times wouldn’t make much sense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Pacheco utilized in the passing game where they can get the ball in space, but see fewer rushing touches than we might normally expect.
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