Week 10 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 10 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at ARI)
Aaron Rodgers posted his second-best QB+ grade of the season on Thursday night, and it came in about as goofy of a way as you can imagine.
In the first half, he matched a career low for passing yards in a half (minimum 10 attempts) with 32, and the Jets’ fans wanted the franchise to be sold. In the final 30 minutes, however, he had as many touchdowns as incompletions (three) on his way to his best second-half passer rating (147.7) since being perfect in Week 11, 2021.
Rodgers was getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry and to the right guys — Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson accounted for 65.6% of his targets and a mind-boggling 85.8% of his passing yards. It goes without saying that rates like that aren’t sustainable, but I’m encouraged by his willingness to put his best players in a position to determine the outcome of the game (and his fantasy day).
The Cardinals’ defense ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in passer rating, yards per attempt, and pressure rate. Could this just be the beginning of an epic Rodgers run? Could the nation handle that?
I’m not sure the answer to either of those questions, but I can tell you that the four-time MVP is back inside of my top 10 this week and trending in an awfully optimistic direction given the upcoming schedule (Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams).
Anthony Richardson | IND (vs. BUF)
Joe Flacco wasn’t good last Sunday night, and that, naturally, led to speculation about this 4-5 team going back to the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Shane Steichen wasted no time in squashing that story and announcing the veteran as his Week 10 starter.
Can we drop Richardson?
I think so. It’s possible that the Colts reverse course should they, as expected, lose each of their next three games (Bills, Jets, and Lions), but does Indy losing give you any more confidence that Richardson will develop consistency with your fantasy season on the line? Are you going to feel comfortable in starting him should he get the nod?
My guess is that if you’re that thirsty for upside at the position, you’re fantasy team likely isn’t playing meaningful games in December. If I’m wrong about that and you’re hanging on for dear life, you probably can’t withstand a bye for your QB1 in Week 14.
As much as it hurts, this is a tough time of year where every roster spot has the potential to impact your starting lineup, and I don’t think you’re getting that from Richardson in standard leagues.
Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. SF)
I’ll admit that when Baker Mayfield lost both of his star receivers, I didn’t imagine myself typing “longest active streak of multi-touchdown passes (six)” in November, but here we are.
I don’t want to say Mayfield is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but in those three games, 60.4% of his completions have gone to RBs/TEs, and that’s usually a target tree that caps upside significantly. That hasn’t been the case up to this point, though. However, you can put me in the skeptical camp when it comes to Mayfield’s ability to pull fantasy points out of a hat in this spot.
Nine times has a receiver reached a dozen PPR points against the 49ers this season, with CeeDee Lamb dismantling them prior to the bye (39.6 points, thanks to a 45.9% target share that resulted in him gaining 60.1% of their receiving yards).
San Francisco’s defense isn’t as scary as it’s been in years past, but the 49ers are coming off of their bye, with the expectation that Mike Evans (hamstring) will remain out.
The only quarterbacks that have even flirted with usability against the 49ers this season had access to one of the game’s finest receivers (Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold) or possessed unique athleticism (Kyler Murray had a 50-yard touchdown run). Mayfield checks neither of those boxes and sits outside of my top 15 this week despite the form he enters with.
Bo Nix | DEN (at KC)
How fun is Bo Nix?
“Fun” isn’t always productive, but it does introduce a level of upside that is appealing for streamers.
Usually.
That’s not the case so much in this spot. The Chiefs are an above-average pass defense in both touchdown rate and yards per completion, traits that could result in Nix’s fifth finish outside of the top 15 at the position. The rookie is an athlete who can break contain and make plays, a fantasy-friendly skill set that you need to track as we come down the stretch but not one that you need to worry about in the scope of Week 10.
Brock Purdy | SF (at TB)
Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Brock Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6, 7, and 8 as a top-10 fantasy signal caller. Purdy’s versatility and its impact on his fantasy status can’t be overstated — he has three scores on the ground over the past two games and has a run of 10+ yards in six of eight games. More important than his ability to do that is his coaching staff buying in.
In Weeks 1-7 last season, Purdy’s quick-pass rate was 74.1%. Since then, that rate has been trimmed to 55.4%. That tells me that this offense is getting more creative with their play-calling, and that should have Purdy managers excited. The Bucs have allowed a QB to clear 24.5 fantasy points five times this season, a run that includes each of their past three games.
Purdy ranks ahead of the streaming tier this week, and that’ll be the case every week moving forward.
Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. NE)
Only once this season has a QB reached 18.5 fantasy points against the Patriots (Aaron Rodgers in Week 3), an interesting fact given that this is the seventh-worst yards-per-play defense in the league.
I remain enamored with Caleb Williams’ skill set, and if I’m a dynasty manager with him rostered, I’m more than happy to take my lumps this season with the understanding that high-end fantasy production could occur as early as this time next season.
Williams is battling through an ankle injury, and we haven’t seen enough consistency from him as a passer to consider him if the rushing upside is limited. At the moment, he checks in as my QB17 for Week 10.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. DET)
I’m not sure what is more encouraging for C.J. Stroud this week, the hopeful return of his WR1 or the projected game script of what could be the most fantasy-friendly contest of the week.
It doesn’t matter.
Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three). He was a top-10 QB in two of his first four games this season, a form I like him to get back to this week as long as reports around Collins remain optimistic.
As for the matchup, the Lions are better defensively than you assume from a rates perspective, but they do give up volume due to the efficiency of their offense; that is what we, as fantasy managers, are ultimately concerned with. In Collins’ healthy games, the Texans cashed in 72.7% of their red-zone trips, a rate that has tanked to 47.4% since.
I went over the impact of having a pedigree receiver last week in my “Blame NFL Teams for Failing Young Quarterbacks” piece, and the same logic translates here. Stroud hasn’t been usable for a month now but deserves to be in your lineup as long as Collins returns — both things can be true.
Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. PHI)
You need Cooper Rush to pick up the Dak Prescott trends against the Eagles (five straight multi-TD pass games, averaging 305 passing yards per game over that stretch) if you’re going this route in a Superflex situation. Even then, we are talking about a player with just 275 passes (60% complete) on his NFL résumé.
The Eagles own the fifth-best defense on a yards-per-play basis this season, and that is why I have Rush ranked in the bottom five of starting signal callers this weekend.
Dak Prescott | DAL (vs. PHI)
News broke on Monday that the hamstring injury that resulted in an early Week 9 exit for Dak Prescott will cost him at least a month in a season that is spiraling out of control in the Big D. This shouldn’t doom your fantasy roster; Prescott has only been a QB1 twice this season, so hopefully this injury doesn’t undo the good you’ve done up to this point.
Derek Carr | NO (vs. ATL)
After missing three games with an oblique injury, Derek Carr returned to action only to lose his top receiver and lose to the hapless Panthers — yeah, safe to say that 2024 isn’t exactly going to script for the 33-year-old.
He threw a late touchdown last week to salvage a little bit of fantasy value, but when your path to fantasy production against the worst team in the league is to ask Foster Moreau to high-point a ball in the end zone, we are talking about a thin profile that doesn’t need your attention.
The Saints have punted on this season With Carr not set to hit free agency for another two seasons, I think we could see more Taysom Hill packages coming down the stretch this season in an effort to not put Carr in harm’s way.
Drake Maye | NE (at CHI)
I don’t have Drake Maye ranked as a top-15 QB this week, but that’s solely a matchup thing as I think this kid has a skill set that is built for fantasy. Only once this season has a quarterback reached 17.1 fantasy points against the Bears — it was Jayden Daniels in Week 8, and he doesn’t get there if not for the Hail Mary.
Maye plays with a lack of fear; that should terrify his coaches as much as it pleases his fantasy managers. I’ll be calling his number down the stretch this season in DFS situations and maybe in deeper redraft leagues, but I’m saving those bullets.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (at DAL)
The expectation is for the Eagles to roll in this game, and when Philadelphia beat Dallas last season, Jalen Hurts was about as efficient as you could ask: 17-of-23 for 207 yards and a pair of scores to go alongside 36 yards on the ground and a touchdown.
Hurts has, of course, been nothing short of phenomenal this season (rushing TD or multiple passing TDs in seven of eight starts), and there is no form being shown from the banged-up Cowboys (104 points allowed during their three-game skid) to suggest that he won’t continue to produce at an elite level.
With his bye week in the rearview and a Washington/Dallas two-step during the fantasy Super Bowl period, Hurts is my QB1 for the remainder of the season.
Jared Goff | DET (at HOU)
Since Week 3, Mason Rudolph has had the same number of pass attempts as Jared Goff despite making just three starts. Additionally, the recently benched, then starting again Joe Flacco has more.
The idea that Goff has completed over 81% of his passes in back-to-back-to-back weeks and ranks as QB19 in total points (QB22 per game) over that stretch is difficult to understand. However, Detroit has scripted him out of producing at all. That’s a problem considering that we all have the Lions labeled as the class of the NFC right now.
With Jameson Williams (suspension) back and a vulnerable Texans defense on the other side (24th in yards per completion and 32nd in pass touchdown rate), I again have a strong grade for the ever-efficient Goff. He looks a lot like 2023 Brock Purdy to me, and the floor that was created in such a season is comforting, even if the volume upside simply isn’t there.
If you roster Goff, you’re praying that the Texans activate Nico Collins this week, giving C.J. Stroud the ability to try to match this powerhouse blow for blow. He sits as my QB10 right now, but that’s atop a tier that extends to QB15 — and it wouldn’t take much to drop him.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. PIT)
Jayden Daniels is pretty clearly “built different” than most, but mobile QBs have been the ones struggling against Pittsburgh this season. Bo Nix (Week 2), Anthony Richardson (Week 4), and Daniel Jones (Week 8) all failed to reach 8.5 fantasy points in this matchup while the three most productive quarterbacks were pocket-locked veterans (Joe Flacco, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers).
It’s not that Daniels can’t solve this defense, I’m just not sure we get a performance that resembles the Rookie of the Year. I’ve downgraded him and will be looking elsewhere in the DFS streets, but that doesn’t mean you get cute in a season-long format — he’s still a top-10 QB (QB1 on seven occasions this season) in my Week 10 rankings.
Joe Flacco | IND (vs. BUF)
Joe Flacco had a fun game against the Jaguars, but in his two games since, he has 63 passes for 368 yards (5.8 per attempt) with as many interceptions as touchdowns (two). He probably gives this team a better chance to win, but not in a fantasy-friendly way.
The majority of QBs in today’s game offer more mobility than Flacco, and at least a quarter of the league has a more talented group of pass catchers to help elevate him. Combine those team-level concerns with an offense that is the fifth-slowest in the league, and I’m not sure this weekend looks much better for Flacco than last (16-of-27 for 179 yards and an interception in Minnesota).
Josh Allen | BUF (at IND)
What more is there to say about Josh Allen? He’s dialed back the reckless rushing and senseless risk-taking, making him a more consistent player for both the Bills and fantasy managers. The physical runs are still a part of his game, but he doesn’t seem to be seeking contact the way he did in the past. That’s good news across the board.
Allen has multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests, a sign to me that he is gaining comfort with his teammates. The level of talent around him is only going to improve as Amari Cooper gets healthy and acclimated, positioning Allen for yet another Tier 1 finish at the position this week and this season.
If you’re curious, the indoor status of this game can’t hurt: Allen has only played inside four times in his career, but he’s cleared 26 fantasy points in three of those instances. I think Jalen Hurts’ ceiling is a touch higher, but ranking Allen as my QB2 this week isn’t a knock — if you have him rostered, you have a chance to win any matchup.
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs. TEN)
Slowly but surely this Los Angeles offense is opening up, and Justin Herbert is benefiting. The franchise quarterback has produced consecutive QB1 finishes after not posting a single top-15 week previously, and I think there’s a chance we see viable production moving forward, something I wasn’t at all expecting to say a month ago.
The numbers last week were impressive, but 94 yards and two touchdowns coming on completely broken coverages need to be highlighted as plays that are difficult to bank on. That said, he did have a stretch of 13 straight completions during the game, further proof that he is gaining a level of comfort in this system that we didn’t see early on.
I’m still taking a cautious approach in less-than-ideal matchups (TEN: league-low 6.0 yards per pass against), but Herbert has my attention with plus matchups on the horizon (home games against the Bengals and Ravens in Weeks 11-12).
Kirk Cousins | ATL (at NO)
There’s just no way around it — Kirk Cousins is the rare pocket-locked QB that fantasy managers can count on. His first-quarter touchdown pass to Drake London was a great example of why, as he is putting his playmakers in a position to, well, make plays.
Kirk to London for the @AtlantaFalcons TD!
📺: #DALvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/FOZIladhpV— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Funny how that works, isn’t it? Cousins completed 12 of his 13 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns through four drives last week and could find such a rhythm this weekend against the second-worst yards-per-play defense in the league.
I’m not the least bit worried about this being a rematch of a game that saw Cousins struggle (21-of-35 for 238 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception) as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. Captain Kirk resides inside of my top 10 at the position this week, and I’m locking him in wherever I have him.
Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. NYJ)
Five times this season has a QB run for 30 yards or a score against the Jets, and those are the top-five fantasy outputs by a signal caller in this matchup this season. I’ll admit that it’s been a low bar to clear due to the stingy nature of the Jets, but that just further highlights the need for versatility.
Kyler Murray has had his ups and downs this season, but he has found a way to record five QB1 finishes, and I think he will make it six this weekend, even in a less-than-ideal spot. Against the best yards-per-play defense in the league.
Murray has a 20-yard scamper in five games this season and is pacing for the second-best yards per pass attempt season of his career. If you believe that Aaron Rodgers figured things out last week, then you believe that Murray will be in catch-up mode, and I’m perfectly fine with that.
Mac Jones | JAX (vs. MIN)
Mac Jones is a professional quarterback and should be able to keep the train on the tracks, but this is an offense that was borderline usable as it is, and that doesn’t change here.
The last time we saw Jones in a regular role was with the Patriots last season, a year in which he finished with more interceptions than touchdowns.
There’s no fantasy change here — you’re not playing the QB of this offense and all of the attached pieces come with more risk than reward.
Mason Rudolph | TEN (at LAC)
Mason Rudolph has been … fine? That’ll work for desperate Superflex managers, though a date with the Chargers isn’t ideal.
The backup QB is averaging 41.3 opportunities per game (pass + rush attempts) in his three starts, so while we can question his efficiency all we want, volume like that will allow you to fall into viable fantasy production from time to time.
I’m not tempting fate with anyone attached to this passing game in Week 10, but I thought it was worth taking 60 seconds of your time to highlight what Rudolph has done lately (he was a top-10 performer in our QB+ metric last week!).
Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. MIA)
Matthew Stafford has been a viable fantasy option in both weeks since his receiving reinforcements returned, and if you like the Rams to win this game, a third straight week is very much in play.
Stafford has won six prime-time games as a member of the franchise:
- 122.3 passer rating
- 9.7 yards per attempt
- 15 touchdowns
- 3 interceptions
With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua by his side, Stafford is a streaming option for me. Do I love the fact that Kyren Williams soaks up a bunch of scoring equity? I don’t, but with Miami posting the third-lowest sack rate in the league through nine weeks, my hope is that Stafford can connect on scoring passes of length so that we don’t have to sweat out run after run after run on the doorstep.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. DEN)
Last season, Patrick Mahomes threw just one touchdown pass against three interceptions against the Broncos (two games and 78 pass attempts). In fact, the division as a whole has given the All-Pro problems recently.
Over his last five divisional games, Mahomes has totaled just six touchdown passes and an 87.2 passer rating, essentially the definition of ordinary. Before last week, that would be the perfect description of his 2024 season, but we saw him thrive when targeting DeAndre Hopkins against the Bucs in prime time and immediately got sucked back in.
I’m not ready to put him back among the elite at the position (Week 9: QB3, his first top-10 of the season), but I am willing to admit that the presence of an alpha receiver was a sight for sore eyes. You’re going to have a hard time turning anything close to a profit for what you paid for Mahomes this summer, but I have him valued as a starting option the rest of the way, not something I was saying with confidence seven short days ago.
Russell Wilson | PIT (at WAS)
Russell Wilson has at least 260 passing yards without a pick in both of his starts this season, a level of production that may not seem extraordinary. But when you consider that the only other quarterbacks to string together two games like that this season are Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert, it’s a little more impressive.
Speaking of Herbert, part of the problem in his profile is the same as Wilson’s — his team doesn’t want him to put up gaudy numbers as that is not their preferred path to victory.
A player like Joe Burrow is put in a position to fall into fantasy value because that is what his real-life NFL team needs from him. However, if Russell Wilson can complete 70% of his passes and move the chains, Pittsburgh is fine with that and doesn’t need 300+ yards and a multi-touchdown showing.
That’s why I can’t yet rank him as a top-15 option. I could see him being as efficient as Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford, but the volume is likely to lag. Without much rushing left in his profile at this point, I’ll need to see him give us 20+ fantasy points again before projecting it within his range of likely outcomes.
Sam Darnold | MIN (at JAX)
Sam Darnold was in control from start to finish against the Colts on Sunday night, completing 28 of his 34 passes for 290 yards and three scores in the win. He had two interceptions, but the overall efficiency was back to where it was early in the season as he seems to have rediscovered his footing after a messy game in London against the Jets (over 8.5 yards per pass in three straight games).
Jaguars’ pass defense, 2024:
- 29th in touchdown rate
- 30th in interception rate
- 30th in yards per pass
- 30th in completion percentage
- 32nd in passer rating
This Jacksonville defense is about as vulnerable as it gets. With Minnesota having very little room for error in the tight NFC North, I’d expect them to come in with a strong plan to pick at every weakness.
I’m not sure that Darnold will be a top-10 play for me in Week 11 or 12 (Titans and Bears), but I have no reservations about ranking him as such this weekend.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs. MIN)
Trevor Lawrence has quietly been a QB1 in three straight weeks. While I’m generally a buyer of his talent, I’m not tempted to call his number this weekend, even with the form trending in the right direction.
The Vikings are borderline reckless when it comes to defensive play calling, and in the wrong spot, I think they will be gashed. However, this doesn’t appear to be that spot. In 2022, 5.2% of Lawrence’s passes against the blitz were touchdowns, a number that dropped to 2.4% in 2023 and sits at 1.7% this season through nine weeks.
Lawrence has punched in a few short scores lately, but with only one effort of 20+ rushing yards this season, the versatility that allowed the former Clemson Tiger to level up is no longer an option. I’m also not ruling out the potential for this to be a low-possession game for Jacksonville with their subpar defense facing the fourth-most methodical offense in the NFL.
I like what I’ve seen from Russell Wilson in his two starts, and I’d rather take a spin on the Drake Maye rollercoaster over Lawrence this week.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at LAR)
Tua Tagovailoa has brought excitement to Miami, completing 53 of 66 passes (80.3%) over the past two weeks and executing this offense in the fashion in which it was intended.
The Rams have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of eight games this season. On the fast track, Tagovailoa very much has the potential to add to that total in a performance that looks like last week.
Is there something to the bright lights to fear here? Over his past five prime-time games, Tagovailoa has just four touchdown passes against seven interceptions, scoring under 13 fantasy points in each of those instances.
I’m more encouraged by the matchup than I am worried about the prime-time numbers, and that lands Tagovailoa as my QB12, ranking in the middle of a tier that stretches from QB8-16.
Will Levis | TEN (at LAC)
Will Levis’ right shoulder injury continues to nag at him, and it resulted in a third straight DNP last week. Levis doesn’t have a finish better than QB20 this season and should be off of fantasy radars, but if you’re holding onto hope in 2QB formats, I’d try hard to keep him rostered.
No, I don’t think Lewvis is going to light the fantasy world ablaze anytime soon, but a quarterback past his bye with some favorable spots down the stretch might be able to offer enough production to crack your line.
- Week 14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 16 at Indianapolis Colts
- Week 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Nobody is going to blame you for cutting ties, but many custom leagues come with deep benches, and Tennessee is motivated to see what its 2023 second-round pick has to offer when it comes to building out its future plans (Mason Rudolph is an unrestricted free agent after this season).