Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua is coming off the single greatest rookie season for a wide receiver in NFL history. When players come out of nowhere like this, it can sometimes be difficult for fantasy football managers to fully buy in. What is Nacua’s projection for the 2024 fantasy season?
Puka Nacua’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 17.4
- Receptions: 104
- Receiving Yards: 1,474
- Receiving TDs: 6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Nacua This Year?
If you ask my fellow PFN Fantasy Analyst, Kyle Soppe, the answer would be a resounding no. Soppe and I agree on many things, but this is not one of them.
We’ve seen plenty of players have random fluke seasons throughout the years and then not be worth their increased price the next one. Oftentimes, though, those players are veterans who had one outlier year.
There was ample evidence of that player not nearly being that good. For Nacua, the only evidence we have is him being a phenomenal football player. And the best part is, he’s just getting started.
The fantasy community as a whole doesn’t seem dissuaded at all by Nacua’s fifth-round draft capital or the fact that he wasn’t supposed to be good. That’s very encouraging to see. Although, I do miss the days when the fantasy community wasn’t quite as smart as it is now. There was much more value to be extracted.
In his rookie season (as a Day 3 pick), Nacua caught 105 passes for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns — averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game. He did this on a 28.7% target share.
I’m projecting Nacua to progress even more in his sophomore season, but not at a level that anyone could accuse of being unreasonable.
My projections have Nacua slated for a 29% target share, which is only a 0.3% increase from what he was able to command last season. Even with a healthy Cooper Kupp, there’s no reason to expect Nacua’s role to decrease. He’s the guy now.
Nacua averaged 2.72 yards per route run as a rookie (sixth in the NFL), despite having a 9.1 aDOT (average depth of target), 75th in the league. Downfield targets are great, but what’s even better is when an offensive coordinator deliberately schemes the ball to a receiver because his talent demands it.
In my projections, Nacua projects out as the overall WR5, catching 110 passes for 1,539 yards and 8.8 touchdowns, averaging 19.23 ppg. However, there is a very small gap between him and the next two guys.
The only difference between Nacua’s projection and my ranking is I have Justin Jefferson ranked ahead of him, while the projections have it slightly flipped. The main takeaway here is you shouldn’t be afraid to take Nacua over Jefferson if you feel that strongly.
When drafting wide receivers in the first round, we’re looking for 20 ppg potential. Given my projection of 19.23 points per game for Nacua, that’s undoubtedly in his range of outcomes. All it would take is a little bit of good fortune in the touchdown department.
Everyone wants to draft at the top, but if you land a mid-to-late first-round pick, there’s no need to fret. Eye up Nacua in the second half of the first round and reap the rewards.
