With six teams on bye this week, we have 10 games to give NFL picks for today, not including Sunday Night Football. When the NFL betting lines came out last Sunday, people were surprised to see the 10-1 Eagles as home underdogs to the 49ers. How should you bet on today’s NFC Championship rematch, as well as the rest of the slate? Let’s dive into the NFL Week 13 predictions.
NFL Week 13 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10:00 am EST.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Odds
Chargers -245, Patriots +200
Bearman: The Chargers shouldn’t be favored by six over anyone, but I can’t advise taking the Patriots either. The days of taking a Bill Belichick team as a home dog ended when Brady left.
I also don’t see this game getting into the 40s with how bad the Patriots offense has been, but the Chargers have the firepower to light anyone up, so I will isolate the Patriots’ awful offense and bet them to go under 17.5 points with a little juice (-125).
The Patriots, who scored a total of 13 points in the last two games, have failed to cross 17 points in nine of their 11 games this season. The Chargers defense isn’t great, but they showed some improvement last week vs. the Baltimore Ravens.
Pick: Patriots under 17.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Patriots have looked absolutely lifeless on offense, with just 13 total points scored over their last two games. The only Patriots games to go over this total this season have been against the Eagles, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, and Bills — four of the top five offenses in the NFL by EPA/play.
The Chargers are a very good offense themselves, but I don’t see them putting up enough points to make up for the Patriots’ lack of offense to go over this total. I would play this under as long as the total stays above 38.5.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
Cardinals +225, Steelers -275
Blewis: I might be buying too high on the Steelers offense after their first 400-yard performance since 2020, but I think this improvement can last for at least another week.
The Cardinals allowed the Rams to run for 228 yards on 6.9 yards per carry last week, and are now the 3rd-worst rushing defense by EPA/play. This week, they’ll be facing Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. For the season, they have rushed for a combined 1,140 yards on 4.8 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, for Arizona, the results haven’t been there yet offensively, but they’re certainly much improved with Kyler Murray and James Conner back in the lineup. In the first nine weeks of the season, they were 29th in EPA/play and success rate — since then they’re 23rd and 14th.
Pick: Over 40.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Odds
Broncos +136, Texans -162
Bearman: It’s hard not to respect how Sean Payton and the Broncos have turned this around after a horrible 1-5 start. They’ve won five straight, three of which have come against current playoff teams.
But a word of caution … four of the five wins have come at home in the Mile High City, while this one is on the road at a good Houston team. The two are battling for a playoff spot, so I can see it going either way.
The biggest difference for Denver has been on defense, where they have gone from allowing 70 in one game to five of their last six games going under the total. And the one that went over was last week’s 41 versus Cleveland. I don’t see this one reaching 48.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The Broncos are in the middle of a five-game winning streak, but they have been extremely fortunate during this stretch. Most notably, they have had a far-unsustainable turnover differential of +14.
I don’t think Denver’s passing offense will be able to exploit Houston like Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars did last week. I also like playing C.J. Stroud at home, where he has a 109.4 QB rating compared to 89.9 on the road. I like this as a bounce-back spot for the Texans.
Pick: Texans -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
Lions -196, Saints +164
Bearman: A matchup of two teams not playing their best football right now, so one of them is going to right the ship. But which one?
The Lions struggled against the Chicago Bears and then were lit up by Green Bay on Thanksgiving, while the Saints have struggled in back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons.
The bigger issue with New Orleans is injuries to a lot of their skill positions, leaving not many weapons for Derek Carr to throw to. I have more faith in the Lions figuring this out and getting back to their winning ways.
Pick: Lions -4 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: For the Detroit Lions passing game, you just need to know two things: 1) It is always Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 2) It is never not Amon-Ra St. Brown.
St. Brown has seen at least nine targets in six straight games. He’s caught at least eight passes in five of those six.
The Lions’ passing game runs through ARSB. Getting plus odds for him to catch eight balls is good enough for me.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 7.5 receptions (+120 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
Colts -118, Titans +100
Bearman: The Colts have quietly moved into the seventh spot in the AFC playoff standings, winners of three straight.
The Titans had a nice win over the lowly Carolina Panthers but are still a bottom-feeder team. Even with Jonathan Taylor missing a few weeks, I like what the Colts are doing on offense, and their defense has held opponents to 13 PPG during the three-game winning streak.
Indy won the first matchup 23-16, and I expect a similar result here.
Pick: Colts -1.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Katz: Last week, Josh Downs caught five passes. It was the first time he reached that mark in three games. But we need context to understand why.
Downs was dealing with a knee injury in his previous two games and wasn’t playing his usual complement of snaps. Last week, he was back to his usual primary slot role, and he saw a whopping 13 targets.
Prior to the knee injury, Downs had caught at least five passes in four consecutive games. Now, he gets a Titans defense that is more vulnerable against the pass than the run. They allow 14.4 receptions per game to wide receivers, the fourth-most in the league. They especially struggle against the slot, where Downs primarily operates.
As a bonus, I also think Downs scores this week.
Pick: Josh Downs over 4.5 receptions (-125 at BetMGM)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Odds
Falcons -136, Jets +116
Bearman: Since their bye week, the Jets have played 20 quarters with two offensive touchdowns — one a garbage time TD with the game virtually over vs. Miami on Black Friday and the other a dump-off that went 50 yards by Breece Hall. Simply put, their offense is horrific, no matter if it’s Tim Boyle or Zach Wilson behind center.
I took the under on 16.5 team points last week and will do it again this week. Until the Jets figure out how to move the ball on offense, I will continue taking this prop against any average defense. They couldn’t get there last week, even with a pick-six.
Pick: Jets team total under 16.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Katz: This is easily my favorite bet of the slate. Tim Boyle played unfathomably bad football last week. He was well on his way to sailing under his passing yardage projection, but a Darrynton Evans fumble opened the floodgates for a volume-filled garbage time throw fest.
Boyle attempted 29 passes in the second half last week. Here is why I don’t anticipate that happening again. I think Boyle is getting benched at halftime. There’s no way he’s going over this number in the first half. And if he plays as poorly as I think he will, I expect the Jets to turn to Trevor Siemian in the second half, making this a sweat-free cash.
Pick: Tim Boyle under 177.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Odds
Dolphins -420, Commanders +330
Bearman: The Commanders defense is allowing a league-high 29.2 points per game this season and now faces the best offense in the league.
The Dolphins offense, while not as efficient as it was in the first half of the season, must be licking their chops watching film this week after seeing what Prescott and the Cowboys did last week. Miami’s team total is 29.5, and since Washington is allowing this on average, it’s an easy play.
I will also continue playing WR1 overs against the Commanders, which this week is the league’s top wideout in Tyreek Hill. At press time, his prop wasn’t listed, but I will take the over on whatever it is.
Picks: Dolphins over 29.5 (-118 at DraftKings), Tyreek Hill over 97.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Commanders may not be a particularly good team. But they don’t give up. Whereas plenty of other teams fall behind and just run the ball and go home, the Commanders throw, throw, and throw some more.
Sam Howell has attempted at least 42 passes in six consecutive games. The Commanders are heavy underdogs again this week. They should be trailing and thus throwing. Look for Slingin’ Sammy to toss up the rock another 40+ times again.
Pick: Sam Howell over 38.5 pass attempts (-110 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
Panthers +146, Buccaneers -174
Blewis: This is really gross, but I like the Panthers here. Carolina is 1-8-2 ATS this season; they have to start covering eventually, right?! All jokes aside, I like Carolina here for a number of reasons.
Tampa Bay continues to be overvalued since they started the season 3-1. Since then, they have gone 1-6, with their only win coming against Will Levis at home. During this span, their defense has been one of the worst in the NFL as well, ranking 29th in EPA.
Now that the Panthers have fired Frank Reich and a few other offensive coaches, perhaps they’ll make life more simple for Bryce Young in the passing game. For the season, Young has the highest pure dropback rate, meaning he has thrown the fewest percentage of play-action throws/RPOs/screens — easy plays for quarterbacks. As a pure dropback passer, only Aidan O’Connell, Daniel Jones, and Wilson have been less efficient.
I got this earlier in the week at Panthers +5.5. I would still play it as long as it stays at +3.5 or higher.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Buccaneers are far from a perfect team; there’s no denying that. This pass defense leaves plenty to be desired, and Baker Mayfield has thrown a pick in seven of his past nine games.
Their flaws, however, are unlikely to be exposed in this spot. The Panthers average 5.5 yards per pass, not just the lowest rate in the league this season but the lowest mark since the Blaine Gabbert-led Jaguars of 2011. As for Mayfield’s interception problem … I’m not worried. Through 12 weeks, only the Titans average fewer picks per game than the Panthers.
Putting your hard-earned money on a 4-7 team to win by a margin isn’t comfortable, but their four victories have come by an average of 11.0 PPG. I have zero faith in the 29th-ranked scoring offense to come back from any sort of deficit, so as long as Mayfield can get the Bucs on the board early, I love the trajectory of this bet (taking them ATS is also a live option if you prefer).
Pick: Buccaneers 1H and moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, Adam Thielen had his worst game of the season, catching one of three targets for two yards. Before that, Thielen caught at least six passes in eight of his previous nine games.
I am buying into the fired coach narrative a bit here. I think the Panthers come out and play inspired football and look much more competent offensively. While they’d probably prefer their offense not run through a 33-year-old wide receiver, he’s still the best they’ve got.
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense. They allow 14.0 receptions per game to wide receivers, the seventh-most in the league. They also allow the second-most yardage to wide receivers. Thielen should have no trouble clearing six receptions.
Pick: Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
49ers -148, Eagles +126
Blewis: I’ve been giving out this pick almost every week now — take the 49ers team total over when their offense is completely healthy, as it’s undefeated for the season.
This is especially true in a spot where their offense will have a massive rest advantage. The 49ers are coming off a long week after playing on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the Eagles just played in a long overtime game in which their defense played 95 snaps. Overall, this unit has played 47 more snaps than the 49ers defense over the last two weeks — that’s almost equal to an entire game.
The Eagles also banged up on that side of the ball, with Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham both out with injuries they suffered last week. The Eagles have depth at defensive tackle, but they were already thin at linebacker, so Cunningham could be really missed here.
The only concern here would be how Brock Purdy handles this Eagles pass rush. The Eagles just faced the two best quarterbacks in a row at evading sacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. With just two sacks over their last two weeks, they could bounce back here, even with their rest disadvantage.
Pick: 49ers over 24.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Katz: Apparently, road Brock Purdy and home Brock Purdy are things. I’m just not sure I buy it. Purdy has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in five games this year. But it doesn’t get much easier than an Eagles defense that is the second-worst in the NFL against the pass.
MORE: NFL Playoff Odds 2023
The Eagles just gave up 34 points to the Bills last week. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns against them in an epic shootout. I think we could see something similar this week.
Pick: Brock Purdy over 1.5 touchdown passes (-129 at Caesars)
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
Browns +162, Rams -194
Soppe: What is the path to success for either of these offenses? We saw Kyren Williams return last week to give the Rams the ability to melt the clock, a style of play the Browns (third in rush rate over expectation this season) have been employing all year long.
Los Angeles had failed to clear 20 points in four straight games prior to last week’s easy matchup with the Cardinals, struggles I expect to continue this week against the second-best yards per defense in the league.
The Browns have allowed 10 or fewer points four times this season, and their scoring upside without Deshaun Watson (25 total points over the past two weeks) is limited, to say the least.
I’m not sure there are six scoring drives in this entire game and I’m certainly not forecasting all of those drives to finish in touchdowns. I like this pregame under, and I’m sure we will be discussing a live under should one of these teams score early!
Pick: Under 40 (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Puka Nacua dream rookie season has hit a bit of a wall. He’s gone over 43 yards in just one of his previous four games and just two of his last six.
Cooper Kupp is not producing, either, but Kupp merely being in the lineup relegates Nacua to Matthew Stafford’s second target. That is not ideal in one of the most difficult matchups possible for wide receivers.
The Browns allow just 117 yards per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the league. Their 8.5 receptions per game allowed to wide receivers is the best mark in the league.
Pick: Puka Nacua under 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
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