The Pittsburgh Steelers remain a perplexing team. On the one hand, they have a long history of success, with 20 straight seasons without a losing record. However, even though this team is coming off a double-digit win season in 2023, it’s fair to say they have been a legitimate Super Bowl contender once in the last six seasons (went 12-4 in 2020).
After a major changeover on offense, do the Steelers have enough to do more than just be competitive in 2024?
Pittsburgh Steelers Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +5000
AFC Odds: +2800
AFC North Division Odds: +800
Win Total:Â 8.5 – Over (-105)/Under (-115)
To Make/Miss Playoffs: Make (+185)/Miss (-235)
Steelers Offense
It could be argued that no offense was in greater need of an overhaul than the Steelers’ offense. Over the last five seasons, Pittsburgh has finished outside the top 20 in scoring each season and outside the top 20 in total yards in four of those seasons.
So, the first step for the Steelers was upgrading the quarterback position, and they are hoping either of their offseason acquisitions, Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, will lead the way in that department.
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Former Atlanta Falcons head coach Authur Smith is the new offensive coordinator, and Pittsburgh fans are hopeful the misery that accompanied the offense under former OC Matt Canada is long gone.
While Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will again split time at running back, there isn’t much depth at the wide receiver position. George Pickens is coming off a solid season, but that appears to be pretty much it in terms of upper-level receivers on the roster.
Steelers Defense
Last season, the Steel Curtain was the epitome of a bend-but-don’t-break defense. They ranked outside the top 20 in total yards allowed (21st) but were in the top 10 in points allowed (sixth).
They lived off forcing turnovers, ranking in the top 10 in takeaways (27, tied for eighth), and when the Steelers had at least one takeaway, they had a 10-4 record.
And while Wilson and Fields were the big names acquired by the Steelers, their biggest offseason move may have been signing inside linebacker Patrick Queen away from the hated Baltimore Ravens to a three-year, $41 million deal.
One Betting Trend to Know
While the Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are the headline-grabbers in the AFC North division these days, it’s worth noting that last season the Steelers were 5-1 against the spread vs. teams in their division.
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In fact, you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the Steelers had a losing ATS record vs. the AFC North. Remarkably, bettors will have to wait a while to see if this trend continues. The Steelers will not play their first divisional game until Week 11 (vs. the Ravens).
Best Bet for Steelers in 2024
Even with the new quarterback and offensive game plan, the Steelers remain a long shot for the Super Bowl as well as the division. Where there is value with the Steelers is in the win total.
At 8.5 wins, taking the under basically means you’re expecting Mike Tomlin to have his first losing season as the Steelers head coach. But taking them to have over 8.5 wins (-105)Â is just about an even bet.
And, given their recent history, I’m going to bank on the streak of non-losing seasons continuing, even in a difficult division like the AFC North.
Ben Rolfe’s Steelers Best Bet
Pick: Steelers to win over 2.5 division games (+100 at DraftKings)
Do you remember the last time the Steelers went under three wins in their own division? No? That’s good because, off the top of my head, neither did I, and that is because it has not happened since 2009. Despite wading their way through mediocre quarterback play in recent years, the Steelers have remained competitive within the division. It is one of Mike Tomlin’s special gifts.
There is no doubt that the Steelers are huge underdogs in the AFC North in 2024. But entering 2023, they were, and they went 5-1 in the division. They just have this knack for beating their division rivals, including seven of their last eight against the Ravens, four of their last six against the Browns, and three of their last four against the Bengals.
All three other starting quarterbacks in their division have injury concerns, which also helps. I will take Tomlin keeping another streak alive against the odds.
