Despite the beatdown Minnesota took at the hands of the Cowboys last week, they are a 2.5-point favorite heading into this matchup with New England. The Patriots, however, will be the ones most thankful at the end of the night in this one.
Not only do we see them cover, but an outright win is a real possibility. However, there is some instability on the offense that makes nailing down these Patriots vs. Vikings odds reasonably difficult, but intriguing.
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Odds | Week 12
- Spread: Patriots +2.5
- Moneyline: Patriots +122
- Over/Under: Over 42.5
Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction
The Patriots might have the most unheralded defense in football, and it might be the best in the league. They’ve held opponents to 20 points or less in 70% of their games this season and haven’t given up more than three points on three separate occasions, which is the most in football.
That’s even more relevant when you consider those three games have come in the last six outings, and back-to-back in their last two.
My sports betting model is great at finding trends, so consider this: New England is giving up 58% fewer points week over week this season. In a vacuum, they would only give up four points this week if the trend held.
Football is not played in a vacuum, however, and another team will be on the field. That team is the Vikings. According to my Pikkit stats, I have a +67% ROI when picking Vikings games. Part of that involves the consistency of their trends.
Minnesota’s offense may not match the celeration rate of New England’s defense, but its 18% growth rate in scoring points week over week is nothing to sneeze at, no matter how cold it is Thursday night.
Scoring 20 or more points in 70% of their games this season has made them the perfect balance to New England’s defense. The caveat? They’re coming off a game at home in which they only scored three points. That is a pretty large outlier that I would not anticipate to have happen again. However, this is a game where it could.
The question will be, what, if any, support can the Patriots’ offense provide the team? They only scored three points last week, their lowest of the season. They have scored 20 or more in 60% of their games, and I think that is more the norm this week against Minnesota. The Patriots stay alive in what is a tight AFC East race.
Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction: Patriots 24, Vikings 20