Two of the most lifeless offenses in the NFL tonight in the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers, and with two backup quarterbacks starting, does that mean you should be looking at unders for your player prop bets?
Let’s take a look at our favorite Patriots vs. Steelers player prop bets for tonight.
Top Patriots vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets
Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown (+230 at FanDuel)
Katz: I know. I know. There might not be a single touchdown scored in this abomination of a football game. But you’re telling me a starting running back almost guaranteed to see over a 70% snap share and 20+ touches, plus goal-line looks, is +230 to score? And he’s a known prolific touchdown scorer to boot?
The hate has gone too far. There are many different ways the Patriots can find themselves inside the 5-yard line. Ezekiel Elliott is very likely to score if that happens.
Mitchell Trubisky Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+175 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This is simply too much value to pass up. For the season, Kenny Pickett has only thrown at least one passing touchdown in 5/12 games — yet we expect Mitchell Trubisky to be any better in the same offense on a short week?!
For the season, the Patriots have only allowed 13 passing touchdowns in 12 games — tied for fourth-best in the NFL. This is despite their very difficult schedule of opposing quarterbacks — Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert.
On a short week, I’m expecting a very conservative game plan from the Steelers in the red zone, and I don’t expect Trubisky to connect on a big passing play, either.
Jaylen Warren Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: This line is higher than it typically is for Jaylen Warren, with Najee Harris listed as questionable, but there’s optimism that he’ll be able to play.
I like this under, though, because of the matchup. For as bad as the Patriots have been offensive, they’ve been really good defensively in recent weeks, and they’re now the best rushing defense in the NFL by EPA/play, success rate, and average yards per attempt allowed.
For the season, opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry against them and 2.3 in the last three weeks, according to Team Rankings. During those three weeks, they have faced running backs such as Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor — three of the best in the NFL.
Warren has emerged as one of the most efficient running backs in football, but this line in this matchup appears too high for me.
George Pickens Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: When the Steelers have the ball, they figure to take some shot plays. In his limited action this season, Mitchell Trubisky’s aDOT is 31.8% higher than that of Kenny Pickett, a note of interest for George Pickens’ managers
The Pats own the eighth-highest opponent aDOT this season, and during their five-game losing streak, we’ve seen the primary deep threat on the opposing team make at least one splash play (listed is their longest catch of the game when facing NE):
- Quentin Johnston (Week 13): 27 yards
- Jalin Hyatt (Week 12): 41
- Alec Pierce (Week 10): 21
- Jahan Dotson (Week 9): 33
- Tyreek Hill (Week 8): 42
Pickens isn’t Hill, but I’d argue that his raw skill set ranks above average for this list, and if he can haul in one pass of significant yardage, we are in business!
For his career, Pickens averages 74.2 receiving yards per game in games in which he hauls in a 20+ yard pass, clearing 55 yards in 77.8% of those contests.
Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions (-160 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This is a lot of juice, so you might prefer to play this in a same game parlay instead, but it’s the only over for a player prop I like tonight.
Pat Freiermuth has gone over this number in two of his three last games since returning from injury, including in back-to-back weeks when he had 12 total receptions on 16 targets.
Most importantly, with Mitchell Trubisky as the starting quarterback last season, Freiermuth went over this total in 3/4 games.
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