The New England Patriots may have gotten off to an underwhelming start, but they responded with a dominant 10-game winning streak before a loss to the Buffalo Bills slowed their momentum and prevented them from locking up their first playoff berth in four years.
Despite that setback, the Patriots remain in a strong position and clinched a postseason spot in Week 16. However, their sights are set higher. New England is firmly in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and staying in that race was helped by their win against the Baltimore Ravens.
What Are the Patriots’ Chances Of Earning the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Patriots have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 NFL season. After winning just four games a year ago and opening this season 1–2 with home losses to the Raiders and Steelers, the franchise has undergone a rapid turnaround under new head coach Mike Vrabel.
Despite their Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots remain one of the AFC’s most consistent teams after bouncing back against the Ravens, and are now 12–3. They have the same record as the Denver Broncos in the race for the conference’s top seed. With a legitimate MVP candidate on the roster, New England has all the potential to make a deep playoff run.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, following their win in Week 16, the Patriots have secured a spot in the playoffs and have a 71% chance of winning the division, as well as a 26.30% chance of earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
If the playoffs started today, the Patriots would have played the Houston Texans at home, and if that is to happen in the actual Wild Card round, it would be a huge test for Maye.
Kyle Williams, are you kidding me?!?!?
What a play to get the #Patriots back into this game: https://t.co/60YS5FDrU0 pic.twitter.com/yF7Ap026mN
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 22, 2025
A win against the Ravens on Sunday has officially clinched a playoff berth for the Patriots. Even if they had lost, New England could have still locked up a postseason spot with either an Indianapolis Colts loss or a Houston Texans loss.
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Here’s how the Patriots’ division odds would have shifted if they had lost to the Ravens.
- New England wins, AND Buffalo wins: 68.9%
- New England wins, AND Buffalo loses: 94.6%
- New England loses, AND Buffalo wins: 51.7%
- New England loses, AND Buffalo loses: 69.8%
While the Patriots are in an excellent position to win the division and secure a playoff berth, their Week 15 loss to the Bills dealt a significant blow to their hopes of securing the No. 1 seed.
However, the Broncos’ loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier today has helped the Patriots, as New England can potentially finish the season as the top seed in the AFC.
The Patriots still need to win their remaining games against the Jets and Dolphins and get help in the form of a Broncos loss to either the Chiefs or Chargers.
