The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Patrick Mahomes.
Is Patrick Mahomes Playing in Week 18?
The Chiefs listed Mahomes as limited all week with his ankle injury. Mahomes is perfectly fine to play, but we won’t see him again until the Divisional Round. Carson Wentz will start on Sunday.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Patrick Mahomes in Week 18?
It’s almost eerie how similar, despite a variety of injuries and moving pieces, Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looks to what he did last regular season (2023 is on top, 2024 is below):
With Xavier Worthy coming on strong late in the season and Hollywood Brown nearing full strength, there’s plenty to like about Mahomes’ prospects in postseason formats. Add in Rashee Rice returning to action and I’d imagine there will be little hesitation in going back to No. 15 next season when the draft season is here.
As for Week 18, the Chiefs have everything locked up and no reason to overextend a nucleus of skill position players who have essentially all been banged up at one point or another this season.
I won’t have him ranked as a Tier 1 option at the position next season like I did entering this season, but with the best pass-catching core he’s ever had, I’m viewing 4,000 yards through the air and 30 total touchdowns as something of a floor – that’s not something many can claim.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
Mahomes is projected to score 0 points in Week 18.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.Â
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (at KC)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at PHI)
4) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. BUF)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
