Patrick Mahomes’ Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Patrick Mahomes' dynasty outlook is solid, but with TE Travis Kelce aging, should the Chiefs' QB still be considered the best quarterback in fantasy football?

After a down season by his lofty standards, the dynasty fantasy football discussion surrounding Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is an interesting one.

Does his skill set project favorably as he approaches his 30s, or was 2023 the start of a decline that resulted in Mahomes falling out of the elite tier at the position? It’s important not to overthink this one — let’s dig into the numbers and find out if the man chasing GOAT status can be a fantasy difference-maker at the highest-scoring position in our game.

Patrick Mahomes’ Dynasty Outlook

We all know what Mahomes brings to the table. It’s that simple. He’s as good as it gets at the position from an NFL standpoint, and usually, that translates to our fantasy football world.

Usually.

That simply wasn’t the case in 2023, and he didn’t get much help from his friends.

Is that a sustainable issue?

No. Dropped pass rate tends to regress to the league mean year over year, and that became more likely with the release of Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Feb. 28. Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs as a team ranked 23rd in team drop rate on second or third-down passes.

That ranking jumps up to 16th if you remove MVS’ targets over that stretch. Mahomes figures to get more help from his friends in 2024 and beyond than he did last season, and the $12 million that the Chiefs cleared by cutting ties with Valdes-Scantling is likely to be funneled into getting their Hall of Fame quarterback increased support.

In 2023, Mahomes reached 26 fantasy points just once (6.3% of starts), a significant dip from his 36.7% rate in the three seasons prior. What caused the lack of upside? Career lows in …

  • Passer rating: 92.6
  • Yards per completion: 10.4
  • Yards per pass attempt: 7.0 (down 13% from 2022)
  • Passing touchdown rate: 4.5%

The inconsistencies of Mahomes’ pass catchers limited the confidence he had in taking chances and stunted more than a few drives throughout the season. As talented as Mahomes is, he can only produce so much if the valuable opportunities dip, and that was the primary culprit of his underwhelming 2023.

Percentage of throws to the end zone:

  • 2023: 5.5%
  • 2022: 7.6%
  • 2021: 5.9%
  • 2020: 7.7%
  • 2019: 6.0%
  • 2018: 8.4%

Mahomes did manage to post a career-high in rushing yards, but even there, he couldn’t catch a break. He was held out of the end zone on all 75 of his carries, an unlikely occurrence given that one of every 24.9 of his rush attempts entering 2023 resulted in a score.

As cold as Mahomes ran in 2023, was it that bad? If this is the worst-case situation, how worried can you realistically be?

There are only four QBs with consecutive 25+ pass TD seasons, and Mahomes has done it in six straight (Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has done it in four straight, while Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff and Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa have done it in each of the past two).

Mahomes posted his best red-zone completion percentage since 2018 (62%) and was a few bad drops away from his final stat line being similar to what we’ve come to know and love.

You can run your dynasty team however you’d like, but overreacting to a single data point (in this case, the aberrational 2023 stat line) is a common trait for teams that routinely finish at the bottom of the standings. That’s not to say that there isn’t an edge to be gained by being the first to take, but we aren’t in the “is Mahomes past his prime” discussion yet.

Not close.

Mahomes’ Dynasty Ranking

Where does Mahomes land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where Mahomes lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Joe Burrow | CIN
5) Lamar Jackson | BAL
6) Anthony Richardson | IND
7) C.J. Stroud | HOU
8) Justin Herbert | LAC
9) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
10) Dak Prescott | DAL
11) Justin Fields | CHI
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Kyler Murray | ARI
14) Brock Purdy | SF
15) Jordan Love | GB

Should You Trade Mahomes in Dynasty?

This position ages better than any, and while Mahomes has been in our lives (and AFC title games) seemingly forever, the man doesn’t turn 29 years of age until September.

  • Age 30: Tom Brady threw 50 touchdown passes (2007)
  • Age 37: Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdown passes (2013)

There’s no reason to move on from potentially the best to ever do it after a down season by Mahomes’ lofty standards. If anything, now is the perfect time to pounce if your opponent is a reactionary one.

KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024

Mahomes hasn’t sat out a meaningful fantasy game in four straight seasons and should very much be considered a Tier 1 option at the position, even if his rushing upside isn’t close to the others at the top of the board.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

Join the Conversation!

Related Articles