The Carolina Panthers have partly benefited from a lackluster NFC South this year, but they’re nonetheless in the thick of the division and NFL postseason conversation with just a few weeks left to play in the 2025 regular season.
What are the Panthers’ chances of making the NFL Playoffs with Dave Canales and Bryce Young at the helm in 2025? Let’s take a closer look at the latest updates.
What Are the Carolina Panthers’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the NFC South?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after their Week 15 loss to the New Orleans Saints, the Panthers currently have a 33% chance of making the playoffs. After Carolina’s loss, the Buccaneers now have a 67.30% chance of winning the division, as well as making the playoffs.
The Panthers can’t make the NFL Playoffs without securing the automatic bid by winning the NFC South. That’s just the nature of the postseason race in the NFC this year. There are upwards of 10 teams in the hunt for just seven spots. And if the Panthers lose out on their own division, they likely won’t have the record to beat out the 49ers, Lions, or Bears.
The Panthers do have a game against the Seahawks that can tip the scales, but PFSN analytics gives them just a 30.2% chance of winning that game. Luckily for the Panthers, they have three division games remaining outside of that game, and two against the Buccaneers, so their fate is still in their hands.
SAINTS WIN!!!!
đź“ş: FOX pic.twitter.com/4rnnR6aofM
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 15, 2025
The best-case outcome for the Panthers is winning out, of course — but anticipating a loss against Seattle, even winning out in their remaining division games, can get the job done. Going 2-1 to finish would put Carolina at 9-8, and a sweep of Tampa Bay would drop the Buccaneers to a less threatening 8-9.
If Carolina and Tampa Bay split their two remaining games against one another, however, things get a bit more complicated. If both finish 9-8, the Panthers would need to beat the Saints to have the division-record tiebreaker (4-2) over Tampa Bay (3-3), as the tiebreaker after head-to-head is division record.
MORE:Â 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
If the Panthers beat Seattle after their loss to New Orleans, and split their games with Tampa Bay, then both teams could end up with 9-8 records, 3-3 in the division. In that outcome, the next tiebreaker would be best win-loss percentage against common opponents.
The Buccaneers are currently 4-3 against common opponents outside the division, while the Panthers are 3-4. Thus, in a scenario where they are both 9-8, the Panthers would need to beat the Seahawks and have the Buccaneers lose to the Dolphins to force the next tiebreaker down the list.
The next tiebreaker is win-loss within the NFC conference. The Panthers are 5-3 in NFC play as of Dec. 12, with four in-conference games left. The Buccaneers are 5-5, with their two conference games remaining, both against the Panthers.
If the Panthers and Buccaneers finish tied at 9-8, with their records against common opponents equal, the Panthers would hold an NFC record of 7-5, while the Buccaneers would have an NFC record of 6-6. That leaves the fourth tiebreaker as the stopping point for Carolina, if it gets that far.
The Panthers can ultimately avoid all of this chaos by simply sweeping the Buccaneers — but even in Tampa Bay’s stunted late-season state, that’s easier said than done.
Panthers’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric ranks Carolina’s remaining schedule as the 21st hardest. The Panthers have a more than 50% chance to win in two of their final four games, according to PFSN analytics.
- Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5% chance to win)
- Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks (30.2% chance to win)
- Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (47.6% chance to win)
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a more than 50% chance to win in just one of their three remaining games: Their season finale at home against the Panthers. They recently lost to the Atlanta Falcons at home on Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay has a 49.5% chance of winning at Carolina next week, and a 46.6% chance of beating the Dolphins at Miami in Week 17.
In short, if you’re a Panthers fan searching for hope, there is hope — but it’s up to Carolina to close out the season and avoid giving Tampa Bay the momentum again.
