If you’re looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams Monday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 15, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Packers Considerations
For 30 years, the Packers’ passing attack has run almost entirely through two quarterbacks. Brett Favre was statistically terrific for much of his career. But Aaron Rodgers took things to a whole new level.
Rodgers has been a top-nine fantasy QB in all 12 seasons with at least 10 games played. His average ranking in these 12 campaigns was 3.25 — in other words, just a shade over the third-ranked QB.
This year, he’s the QB18. Last year, he had eight top-10 QB outings. This year, he doesn’t have a single performance inside the top 12.
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We might blame this on the loss of uber No. 1 WR Davante Adams, as well as minor and major injuries to all of his leftover starting receivers. And we might feel relatively bullish about the general healthiness of his top playmakers.
But these numbers reinforce my warnings about Rodgers this summer, when I ranked him 123rd overall (compared to a 76 ADP). This offense is not designed to win through the air. Yes, it would be nice. Yet it’s not the key to their success.
In five victories, they’re averaging 170.2 rushing yards — including four games with 175+ rushing yards. In their nine defeats, they’re netting a mere 97.4 rushing yards per contest.
As we craft this DFS lineup, if we believe the Packers will prevail (as I do), we should lean heavily into their backfield.
Rams Considerations
As rough as the Packers’ passing attack has been, the Rams’ has been meaningfully worse. They have two top-240 QB performances this season: No. 140 (Week 2) and No. 178 (Week 8).
Of course, that’s when all-world WR Cooper Kupp was playing. With he and Allen Robinson Jr. on the shelf and Darrell Henderson long gone, the team has put its faith in Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, an array of backups, the underperforming Cam Akers, and intriguing rookie Kyren Williams.
Oh, and this depleted offense now runs through Baker Mayfield, who recently lost his starting job in Carolina to Sam Darnold . . . and the No. 2 QB job to P.J. Walker.
MORE: Packers vs. Rams Prop Bets To Target on MNF
Mayfield’s heroic comeback victory last week needs some perspective. He was sitting on 89 passing yards through the first three quarters against a vastly sub-par Raiders pass defense. Yes, he was still learning the playbook. I get it.
But when developing this DFS lineup, we must consider the context: either we believe Mayfield will play his best football of the year in L.A. — and in particular, in this tough road matchup — or he’ll continue to flounder as a backup-caliber quarterback who still gets the benefit of the doubt.
Top NFL DFS Picks for MNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
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Captain: RB Aaron Jones, Packers ($16,800)
If we knew that only one player would score 25+ points tonight, who would you pick? Maybe Christian Watson. Perhaps A.J. Dillon if he takes the lion’s share of touches. But I’d argue no player in this game matches Aaron Jones’s proven ceiling.
Flex: WR Christian Watson, Packers ($8,800)
Speaking of Watson, even at this steep price, he needs to be rostered. He and/or Allen Lazard should hit 12+ points tonight.
Flex: WR Allen Lazard, Packers ($7,600)
And here’s the hedge. I’m not convinced that the returning Romeo Doubs will make a sizable impact, at least not yet. Lazard’s target volume and scoring prowess make him more appealing than, for example, any Rams player, including Mayfield and Jefferson.
Flex: RB AJ Dillon, Packers ($6,200)
Another hedge, though not an egregious one. My lineups are 106-59 (64%) in 50/50 DFS competitions this season. Well-placed hedges are a key factor. I’d be shocked if Jones and Dillon don’t combine for 26+ DFS points.
Flex: Packers D/ST ($5,000)
I’m all in on Green Bay’s defense containing the offensive remnants of these former Super Bowl champions.
Flex: WR Tutu Atwell, Rams ($4,400)
We need at least one Ram, so let’s make it Tutu Atwell with $5,600 remaining. I’ve been pushing him as a big-play option for weeks. While his weekly numbers have been so-so on a large scale, when considering our options, he might be the highest-upside Ram in this contest.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.
