The Green Bay Packers clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC with Sunday night’s victory over the Minnesota Vikings. They face Detroit in Week 18, and with that top seed locked in place, what will Green Bay’s starting lineup look like for this one? With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Packers vs. Lions NFL odds and make a pick and prediction.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions pick, prediction | Week 18
- Spread: Packers -3 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Packers -160, Lions +140
- Over/Under: 44
Cowboys loss helps secure top seed for Packers
Green Bay needed to win their remaining games or the Cowboys to lose one of theirs to confirm the No. 1 seed. The Cardinals dealt Dallas that loss, and with the Packers subsequently going out and beating the Vikings, they wrapped up the top seed with a game to spare.
They can now use that game to rest their starters as they wish, which, paired with the first-round bye associated with the top seed, would give them two full weeks of game rest before they take the field again in the Divisional Round.
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The betting line was released late for this game, suggesting there is some uncertainty around whether the Packers will rest starters or not. The counterargument is that two full weeks away from competitive football is actually a bad thing. Would it make sense to let them play this week rather than throw them in cold in a second-round playoff game?
Both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams stated they would like to at least play some of the game against Detroit.
Detroit is playing for Lions pride
As for the Lions, the game impacts the opposite end of the NFL. Rather than talking about the playoffs, we’re talking about the No. 1 pick in the draft. Detroit currently sits in second and can’t drop any lower than that. The third, fourth, and fifth picks belong to the Texans, Jets, and Giants, who have all won four games. A third win for Detroit won’t impact their position.
However, a loss could launch them into the top spot, where they had been for the majority of the season before picking up a couple of late victories. Should Detroit lose, they would still need the Jacksonville Jaguars to win against the Colts to climb over them in the 2022 NFL Draft order.
While they might not have decisions to make around the postseason, do they have one to make at quarterback? Is Detroit assessing whether Jared Goff is the long-term future of the franchise? Absolutely. Do they have the answer to that yet, or even need to act on it? Not entirely.
Either way, with the cap space and draft capital they have, it will be an interesting offseason for the Lions.
Packers vs. Lions betting trends
The Packers have covered five overs in their last six games. They’ve split those six games against the spread (ATS) and won the last five outright. If Aaron Rodgers plays, I’d expect to see the over and the spread covered. But that line will also shift dramatically if it is confirmed he will get some game time.
As for the Lions, they might have only won two games this season, but they have won six of their last eight ATS. The underdog in every one of those games, Detroit has kept it close more than the betting line suggests. As a result, they have cashed six overs for the Detroit believers among us.
Packers vs. Lions prediction
This is a tough one without the full information on the game, which will come later in the week. But based on the current line, and assuming the Packers are going to rest at least some of their starters, I’m going to take the Lions at +3 and bet the under.
It doesn’t matter a single iota to the Packers, and for the Lions, it gives them a ton of momentum to take into the offseason. It’s also worth noting that Detroit players are competing for roster spots on a team about to make a lot of moves heading into 2022. They’ll be playing for more than their pride. Be aware — if Rodgers, Adams, and other starters play the first half or more, I’d take the Packers.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction: Lions 24, Packers 17 (based on resting starters)