The final game of Week 17 will see the Green Bay Packers face the Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that could send huge ripples throughout the NFC. Heading into the game, the Packers will know whether they can be eliminated from playoff contention, which could tighten the tension even further around the game.
In the buildup to Sunday Night Football, our NFL betting experts break down the current betting lines and odds to provide their Packers vs. Vikings picks and predictions for Week 17.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Lines
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- Spread
Vikings -1 - Moneyline
Packers +100, Vikings -120 - Total
43.5
Packers vs. Vikings Predictions and Expert Picks
David Bearman: This is a playoff elimination game. Both teams are 7-8 and one game back of the Wild Card race — the loser will be eliminated.
The winner could be too, but there’s a long way to go before we can decide that. The Vikings won by two TDs in Lambeau earlier this season without Justin Jefferson. They’re now home and have Jefferson.
Picks: Vikings -1
Ben Rolfe: This game between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings has “shootout” written all over it. The two teams played in games last week that combined for over 110 points, with defense seemingly optional. The Vikings have now scored 48 points in two games since their 3-0 debacle in Las Vegas but have allowed 57 points in the two losses.
The Packers have not scored less than 20 points since Week 10 and have only allowed fewer than 20 points once in that stretch. This game has 27-24 or 30-27 potential … I am just not sure who is on which side of the result.
Pick: Over 46.5 total points
Kyle Soppe: Jaren Hall is set to make his first real start of the season (he got a start in Week 9 against Atlanta but left early due to a concussion) and gets to do so in what is being projected as a coin-flip game. Does that mean we are getting a discount in the quarter spread market?
This season, when a backup QB makes his season debut, they rarely win the “prep” quarters.
- First-quarter win rate: 31.3%
- Third-quarter win rate: 18.8%
I consider these the “prep” quarters because the opposing coaching staff has time to build a specific plan to confuse the new starter in short order. In the even-numbered quarters, the bullets are live, and there is only so much retooling a staff can do.
If you’re in the business of segmenting these bets, the third quarter one comes with not only a higher hit rate this season but also has two veteran options that won the measured third quarters that factor into that underwhelming win rate (Gardner Minshew II and Case Keenum). Hall doesn’t have significant NFL reps under his belt and is a fade for me at this price!
Pick: Packers +0.5 in Q1 and +0.5 in Q3 (+162 at DraftKings)
Jason Katz: I think AJ Dillon’s broken thumb is a legitimate problem. He’s obviously going to play through it, but he played a season-low 18% of the snaps last week.
Dillon carried the ball seven times for just 12 yards. Primarily used in short-yardage situations, there’s rarely going to be an opportunity for Dillon to gain a significant number of yards.
MORE: NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
When these teams last met, Dillon operated as the lead back but only carried the ball six times for 11 yards. The Vikings allow 3.7 yards per carry to running backs and just 74 rushing yards total per game. With Aaron Jones dominating carries, Dillon will have to break off a long run for this to lose, something he’s not adept at doing.
Pick: AJ Dillon Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Vikings’ pass defense is trending up, and teams have largely been unwilling to test them downfield. That doesn’t worry me when it comes to backing a player like Jayden Reed, who is an offensive weapon that the Packers try to get in space by any means necessary (9.4 aDOT and 11 carries this season).
The rookie has six red-zone targets over his past four games and has caught 78.3% of his looks in December. Jordan Love can be sporadic as a passer, but he has shown a nice connection with Reed, and if the short-pass game is the focus, a trip to the end zone isn’t a bad bet.
Pick: Jayden Reed anytime touchdown (+165 at DraftKings)
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