While the Pittsburgh Steelers have turned “winning ugly” into an art form, the Green Bay Packers want to see what a winning streak looks like this season. This is also a contest between two teams that have quarterbacks that have been dealing with criticisms of their play most of the season. Is there betting value to unlock in this matchup?
Packers vs. Steelers Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Steelers -3
- Moneyline: Packers (+145), Steelers (-175)
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Game time:Â 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Packers vs. Steelers Prediction
Despite being outgained in total yards by all eight opponents this season, the Steelers still have a winning record and remain very much in the playoff picture.
The Packers are looking to win consecutive games for the first time this season, but to do that, they’ll have win at a place they haven’t won at since 1970.
And both the Steelers and Packers have to try and do these things with young quarterbacks that haven’t developed the way each team would have hoped for by now.
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, Kenny Pickett ranks near the bottom in passer rating (26th), completion percentage (29th), and passing yards per game (30th).
MORE: Brian Blewis’ NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread To Tail
On the other sideline is Jordan Love, who ranks last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (59.6%), 25th in passer rating, and his eight interceptions are one off the most in the NFL.
A good ground attack would help out both quarterbacks, but both the Packers (22nd-ranked rushing offense) and the Steelers (24th) are among the worst at running the ball.
Green Bay running back Aaron Jones is coming off a season-high 73 rushing yards last week — along with a touchdown run — so perhaps he has some momentum entering this week.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, appears to be changing over from Najee Harris to Jaylen Warren as its featured back. Warren had season highs for carries (11) and rushing yards (88) in last week’s win. Perhaps feeling the pressure of a change at the running back position, Harris had one of his better games of the season, with 69 yards on the ground and a touchdown.
But clearly, this is a game for the defenses to pad their stats. Pittsburgh is not exactly the Steel Curtain of old, ranking 31st in total defense (377.3 ypg allowed). However, the Steelers are surprisingly in the upper half of the league in scoring defense (13th), allowing 20.4 ppg. It helps that Pittsburgh has the third-most takeaways in the league (16).
Green Bay, on the other hand, is 11th in total defense (320.1 ypg allowed) and 10th in scoring defense (19.9 ppg allowed). The Packers are coming off a win over the Rams in which they held L.A. to just one field goal and less than 200 total yards (187).
It feels unusual to promote the under in a game where the over/under total is less than 40 points, but that’s the play. For starters, seven of the Steelers’ eight games have gone under the total, including the last six games. In fact, last week’s win over the Titans went under with an over/under line of 37 points.
The Packers, meanwhile, have seen five of their last six games go under the total, including the last four contests. And just like the Steelers, the Packers’ win last week over the Rams had an over/under total of 37 points.
These two teams have played 16 games combined, and only once has either team topped the 30-point mark, that being the Packers back in Week 1 vs. Chicago.
I’m not expecting a lot of points here, naturally.
Best Bet: Under 38.5 points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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