The same-game parlay picks for this NFC North showdown come layered with some creativity given the one-sided projection for this game. How should we bet on the early Thanksgiving game?
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds
Packers +285, Lions -360
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: How many games has Jared Goff lost as a Lion in November that were not played on Thanksgiving? (a) zero (b) one (c) two (d) three
The first time these two teams met, it was one-sided. After an early Detroit Lions turnover, they simply imposed their will upon the Green Bay Packers, and the game wasn’t as close as the 34-20 final score would indicate. Does that change today?
I don’t think so.
The Lions should be able to play with a lead for the majority of this game. For the season, the Packers rank 31st in first-half points per game and second in second-half ppg. If they are going to make this look competitive, it’s much like how they did the first time around – points that don’t matter late in the game.
In that vein, the Lions are the sixth-highest-scoring offense in both the first and second quarters this season, positioning them nicely to take a significant lead into the locker room. That puts Jordan Love in a spot to rack up the yardage for fantasy football managers and bettors alike!
The first-year starter has thrown at least 40 passes in each of the past three games in which the Packers didn’t control the tempo. (I’m ruling out the game against the Los Angeles Rams started by Brett Rypien, that was the exception and not the rule.)
For the season, as underwhelming as it has been, Love is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, a rate that only requires 34 pass attempts to get us home!
When Detroit has the ball, we’ve seen them make a conscious effort to keep Jameson Williams on the field lately. The burner was on the field for 81.4% of three-receiver sets (next to Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown) last week, a role that has been on the rise of late.
That keeps Kalif Raymond on the sideline and limits his opportunity count. With his snaps dwindling, not to mention Jahmyr Gibbs seeing 11 targets in the two games since David Montgomery returned, his expected volume is very low.
Combine him trending out of favor on this offense with potential game script concerns, and we could be looking at a goose egg from Raymond. Of course, if this game is one-sided, we are at risk of a garbage-time catch or a trick-play reception, but if you aren’t sweating late Lions pass attempts to WR4s, is it really even Thanksgiving?
- Trivia Answer: (a) 0. Jared Goff is 0-2 on Thanksgiving and 5-0-1 in all other November games.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Lions 1H -4.5, Kalif Raymond under 12.5 receiving yards, Jordan Love over 228.5 passing yards
- Odds: +550 (at DraftKings)
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