Two storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, battle in the Wild Card Round, and the sportsbooks have this labeled as a one-sided game. Does that come to fruition this week?
I have cooked up a Packers vs. Cowboys same game parlay using the most recent statistics to guide me.
Packers vs. Cowboys Betting Lines
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- Spread
Cowboys -7 - Moneyline
Packers +270, Cowboys -340 - Total
50.5
Packers vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: These two franchises have combined for three instances in which they repeated as the Super Bowl champions. How many such instances have all other franchises accounted for?
Just twice this season has a Cowboys game been decided by single figures and hit 50 points. Twice. All season. Given the spread and total, that is something that is being projected to happen this week, and I’m not buying it.
Neither the Packers nor the Cowboys is a top-12 red-zone offense, and neither is a top-20 offense in terms of pace. Neither is a top-10 defense in terms of takeaways, and both offenses are top 10 when it comes to not turning the ball over.
If you want to drill down into specifics, Green Bay owns the ninth-best red-zone defense (critical against Dak Prescott’s league-leading 4.2 red-zone trips per game), and Dallas is second best in terms of net yards per punt, an underrated metric that forces a young Packers team to sustain drives against a stout defense.
For my specific SGP, I’m going to go a little conservative with an alternate total, but if you want to juice up your ticket a bit, that is a spot to do it!
Now, for that, we have a macro take out of the way; let’s get to the micro player props. Dak Prescott has been nothing short of astounding this season with his arm, and that could well continue in this spot. The Packers’ defense ranks no outside of the top half of the league.
- Yards per pass
- Yards per completion
- Completion percentage
- Percentage of yards gained through the air
Prescott could (and should) be just fine in this matchup, but I expect his success to come through the air, not on the ground. In Dallas’ past six wins, he’s picked up an average of 9.2 rushing yards per game and has thrown 17.3 passes for every rush attempt. In today’s NFL, many offenses are built around dual-threat quarterbacks — this isn’t one of them.
Green Bay has plenty of problems stopping the run (10th worst in yards per carry), a scab I expect Dallas to pick at with their traditional ground game. Betting props is about evaluating your number of outs, so it doesn’t hurt that we have the potential to get bailed out by the Cowboys going into victory formation late in this game!
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
I mentioned Prescott having success through the air, and if recent Green Bay trends hold, those yards might not come by who you’d assume.
- Over Green Bay’s past five games, they held DJ Moore, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, and Darius Slaton to a total of 288 receiving yards.
- Over Green Bay’s past five games, secondary options in Cole Kmet, Jordan Addison, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, and Wan’Dale Robinson have racked up 401 receiving yards.
That’s not to say that CeeDee Lamb is destined to get shut down with Jaire Alexander back in the Packers’ secondary, but it is to say that we could see usage spread a little thinner than normal from this Dallas pass game.
While Brandin Cooks has been scoring touchdowns and earning fantasy football points, Jake Ferguson has seen at least six targets in six straight games and has proven himself as the secondary target earner in this efficient offense.
Pair that with the fact that the teams facing the Packers have a below-average aDOT, and the short passing game should be voluminous enough to cash Ferguson props.
- Trivia Answer: Six times. The Dolphins, Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and 49ers (twice) have all repeated as Super Bowl champions.
- Same Game Parlay: Under 56.5 points, Dak Prescott under 14.5 rushing yards, Jake Ferguson over 42.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +390 (at DraftKings)
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