The Green Bay Packers are hoping the bye week will serve as a way to change their fortunes, as they suffered back-to-back losses. Can they get a win in Denver against another struggling team in the Broncos? Here’s a look at this matchup.
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Packers vs. Broncos Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Packers -1.5
- Moneyline: Packers (-115); Broncos (+105)
- Over/Under: 45
- Game time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High
- Channel: CBS
Packers vs. Broncos Prediction
The Packers are hoping their recent trend of coming out of the bye week strong will continue this weekend. Green Bay has won its last two games following the bye week by at least 12 points, beating the Rams by 12 in 2022 and the Bears by 15 in 2021.
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However, both of those games were at home, and they lost the last two times the Packers’ first game after the bye week was on the road.
But the Packers may be facing the perfect opponent to turn around their season. Because while Green Bay has lost two in a row and three of its last four games, Denver has also lost two in a row — both by double digits — and five of its six games this season.
The Packers offense, which has not produced at least 350 yards in any game this season, should be able to come to life against the league’s worst defense in the Broncos. Denver ranks last in total yards allowed (440.3 YPG) and points allowed (33.3 PPG).
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love could certainly enjoy some success after his struggles of late. In his last two games, Love has one touchdown pass, five interceptions, and a 51.8 passer rating.
But Love should help against a Denver team that ranks last in opponent completion percentage (76.4%), opponent passing touchdowns (14), and opponent passer rating (117.8).
Green Bay will likely try to get its running game going, especially against the league’s worst run defense in Denver (172.3 YPG). AJ Dillon has been the Packers’ leading rusher (194 yards), but this offense seems to operate better when veteran Aaron Jones is in the lineup.
While he has been in and out due to injury, Jones’ presence on the field has helped the Packers offense. When Jones is in the lineup, Green Bay is averaging 29.0 PPG; when he is out of the lineup, that average drops to 18.3 PPG.
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Much like Green Bay, if Denver wants to return to the win column, a better performance from Russell Wilson is imperative. Wilson is coming off his worst game of the year in the loss to the Chiefs last week, throwing for only 95 pass yards, with one TD pass, two interceptions, and a 46.6 passer rating.
If the Packers can get pressure on Wilson, it’s a much different game. The Packers defense has a 38.1 QB pressure rate this season, according to NFL’s Next Gen State. And when Wilson is under pressure this season, he is barely completing 50% of his pass attempts (50.8%).
It helps that the Packers have the league’s No. 1 player in QB pressures in Rashan Gary, who has a 26.4% pressure rate.
The Broncos are one of two teams — the Panthers are the other — that has yet to cover a spread this season (0-5-1 ATS). Green Bay, meanwhile, is 2-1 ATS on the road, but its one ATS loss came in its last game before the bye at the Raiders.
When you’re struggling like the Packers, giving points on the road — no matter how small a number — isn’t always the best course of action. However, I pity those who still back Denver and its Swiss cheese defense.
Give the points and cross your fingers.
Best Bet: Packers -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
