In the span of about a week back in November, Odell Beckham Jr. went from being one of the league’s most overpaid wideouts to one of the most underpaid. When the Los Angeles Rams face the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl 56 on Sunday, OBJ could cap one of the biggest midseason turnarounds in recent NFL history. Can this former elite receiver step up on the biggest stage and deliver in fantasy football formats in the process?
Odell Beckham Jr. will exceed Super Bowl expectations if . . .
Entering this season, the Rams have one of the league’s youngest teams. No NFL squad had fewer 30-plus-year-old positional players. At 29 years old, OBJ is the grizzled veteran. He’s also a resurgent talent who has risen to the occasion in only his second postseason, posting a 19-236-1 receiving line across three contests — and saving his best for the Rams’ NFC Championship Game victory over the 49ers.
In his only other playoff game, Beckham secured 4 of 11 targets for 28 scoreless yards with the undermanned 2016 Giants. That was a Beckham-or-bust offense “led” in the backfield by a bell cow who averaged only 3.3 yards per carry.
In contrast, LA’s relatively loaded offense doesn’t require a breakout performance from Beckham. Cooper Kupp is the unquestioned No. 1. A high-volume running game frequently keeps the chains moving. The Bengals yield the second-fewest red-zone targets to wideouts. Beckham has exceeded 6 receptions only once all season (in his last game).
For OBJ to shine, he needs to score. Cincinnati gave up the third-most 20-plus-yard receiving plays during the regular season, along with the sixth-most receiving yards. Beckham can crack 18 fantasy points if things break right, where “breaking right” means one or two 20-plus-yard plays where he can find a seam and use his elite speed to take it to the hole.
He will underperform in the Super Bowl if . . .
Entering the postseason, OBJ averaged 3.4 receptions and 38 yards on 6 targets per game with the Rams; 5 touchdowns during that stretch kept him fantasy-relevant. But make no mistake, his floor was deceptively low.
All of this changed in the playoffs. We’ve seen a different OBJ, thanks in large part to an uptick in volume. Additionally, his phenomenal 83% catch rate in the playoffs is simply on another level compared to his 56% rate with the Rams during the regular season.
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Yet, Beckham remains a risky fantasy option in Super Bowl 56. As alluded to above, he’s no better than his team’s No. 2 receiver. Additionally, the Rams have averaged 27 rushing attempts from their RBs in the playoffs, nearly double that of opposing teams’ running backs.
If LA continues to control the clock on offense (they’re No. 1 in the league in their last three games in time of possession), and if Kupp and the backfield play their customary high-volume roles, don’t be surprised if Beckham finishes with single-digit fantasy points.
What is the fantasy outlook of Odell Beckham Jr. in Super Bowl 56?
Beckham’s realistic fantasy outlook falls somewhere in the 8-16 point range — a wider variance than we’ve seen with many other Super Bowl competitors. Big-play receivers with unpredictable volume are harder to pin down.
We could envision a 5-45-0 receiving line just as easily as a 6-70-1 receiving line. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. It all comes down to whether this frequent TD-dependent weapon finds the end zone or somehow manages to replicate his high-volume output from two weeks ago.
He’s the third-most-expensive DFS option on DraftKings ($8,400), $800 higher than the arguably safer Tee Higgins. Only an optimal performance would justify reaching for OBJ at that price.
Additionally, we are intrigued by a DraftKings prop bet in which Beckham and Higgins both have a 30-plus-yard reception. The favorable +550 odds underscore the challenge of both hitting. Yet, Higgins is tied for 13th in the league with 10 catches for 25+ yards, while we already know the Bengals’ defense is susceptible to big receiving plays. We would advise rolling with this bet, despite the less-than-advantageous odds.
