A rib injury and a high ankle sprain derailed tight end Noah Fant’s 2020 season. What is Fant’s ADP, and will his fantasy football outlook improve in 2021 with more competition for targets and a less-than-ideal quarterback situation in Denver?
Noah Fant’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Will Fant break out in his third NFL season? As a rookie, he played in 16 games and caught 40 of 67 targets for 562 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, last season, Fant caught 62 of 93 targets for 673 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
Over the last two seasons, Fant has accumulated the 11th-most receiving air yards (1,125) among tight ends. This metric indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught. Since 2019, the only tight ends with more yards after the catch than Fant (711) are George Kittle (893), Travis Kelce (1,051), and Darren Waller (1,142).
Fant is a prototypical pass-catching tight end with the measurables, acceleration, and speed to create mismatches anywhere on the field. His biggest challenges this season are wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
The Broncos’ dynamic receiving duo
Sutton missed most of the 2020 campaign due to a torn ACL but had an exceptional 2019 season. He finished with 124 targets, 72 receptions, 1,112 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. Despite catching passes from quarterbacks Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen, Sutton put his potential on display.
Jeudy, on the other hand, was propelled into the No. 1 receiver role last year as a rookie. He caught 52 of 113 targets for 856 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Jeudy, like Sutton, also dealt with quarterback woes. Only 74 of his 113 targets were catchable in 2020.
Sutton’s return and Jeudy’s progression put a significant damper on Fant’s targets, receiving air yards share, and fantasy outlook for 2021. Fant was clearly more productive without Sutton on the field last year. The last time the two played together in 2019, Fant saw a decrease in targets and fantasy points per game in those contests. This scenario could repeat itself in 2021.
Will Fant be touchdown-dependent in 2021?
Considering his lower number of targets, Fant may have to score more touchdowns to finish as a top-six fantasy tight end this season. Did you know that his touchdown rate (3.8%) is the third-lowest among all tight ends over the last two seasons with 150+ targets? As a reminder, the difference between TE8 to TE16 in PPR formats last year was only nine points.
Fant will prosper in the middle of the field this season
One positive is that Sutton, Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick could open up the middle of the field even more for Fant. These receivers will command a ton of defensive attention. As a result, Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur could take advantage of this by creating mismatch opportunities for Fant.
Who will be the Broncos’ starting quarterback?
The quarterback play in Denver will improve in 2021, especially if Teddy Bridgewater is named the starter over Drew Lock. The veteran was underrated in Carolina last season. Bridgewater finished 2020 as the fantasy QB18 while completing 69% of his passes. He does a great job of positioning passes on target to assist his receivers.
Fantasy projection
We project Fant for around 85 targets, 58 receptions, 600 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2021. It would be surprising for Albert Okwuegbunam to accumulate more than 25 targets and will primarily be used as a blocking tight end.Â
Noah Fant’s ADP
Fant has an ADP of 95.92 in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship. On the contrary, Fant’s ADP in PPR formats on Fleaflicker is 84.8.T
Should you draft Fant in 2021?
Fant is not a tight end I recommend you aggressively target. He is a better value — in my opinion — if you can land him a round or two later. Fant is a high-end TE2 with TE1 upside.
If you’d rather not select Fant at his ADP, one alternative is to wait until the double-digit rounds. Tyler Higbee, Adam Trautman, and Anthony Firkser are all intriguing sleepers who could outperform their respective ADPs.
