Noah Fant’s fantasy outlook, ADP, and projection for 2022

What is Noah Fant's fantasy outlook and projection for 2022, and should you look to draft him at his current ADP?

Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant oozes athleticism and upside. Unfortunately, it has yet to translate into sustained fantasy football success. Now on a new team entering his fourth NFL season, what can fantasy managers expect from Fant in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?

Noah Fant’s fantasy outlook for 2022

I was a big fan of Fant coming out of college in 2019. Unfortunately, his NFL career has failed to live up to the expectations of many.

By all accounts, Fant had a tremendous rookie season, catching 40 balls for 562 yards and three touchdowns. Afterward, although his fantasy stock improved (averaging 10 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020 and 9.9 ppg in 2021), his efficiency steadily declined.

Fant’s yards per reception went from 14.1 as a rookie to 10.9 as a sophomore and 9.9 in his third season. He was able to command an 18.3% target share the past two seasons but failed to turn that into anything that would have a fantasy impact.

Despite the Broncos’ backward, run-oriented offense last season, Fant did the best he could. He was surprisingly efficient under the circumstances, averaging 1.64 yards per route run and 7.4 yards per target. He’s still a talented player with a high ceiling in the right environment.

How the Seahawks’ depth chart impacts Noah Fant’s fantasy projection for the season

Sadly, the 2022 Seahawks do not look like the right environment. Everyone on the Broncos saw their value rise with the Russell Wilson trade. Everyone … except for Fant, as he was part of the deal that sent Wilson to Denver.

Fant will have to compete with a more talented wide receiver duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in an even worse offensive situation. In addition to having either Geno Smith or Drew Lock under center, the Seahawks can’t even make up for it with volume because Pete Carroll hates calling offensive plays. What I mean by that is the Seahawks literally just don’t run plays.

Last season, the Seahawks averaged just 53 plays per game, by far the fewest in the league and one of the five lowest in the past decade.

This is also a run-first offense that will only double-down on running even more without Wilson. The Seahawks re-signed Rashaad Penny and then spent a second-round pick on Kenneth Walker. Carroll will not let a silly thing like trailing in a football game stop him from pounding the rock.

It would not surprise me to see Fant emerge as a productive fantasy tight end at some point later in his career. He will be just 25 years old this season. However, in 2022, Fant will not open the season as a TE1. I hope he proves me wrong because I love him as a talent, but fantasy managers should consider Fant nothing more than a random TE streamer.

Fant’s ADP for 2022

Fant’s ADP is around 160th overall. He’s being drafted as the TE15. This is a fair price for a talented player in an awful situation.

A tight end being the third receiving option on his team is usually a good thing. However, that’s not necessarily the case when the quarterback is Geno Smith or Drew Lock.

Fant is a talented player. In the right situation, he could be a top-five tight end. That’s simply not happening in Seattle.

With that said, Fant’s ADP is low enough to the point where he’s basically free. Drafting him is purely a bet on talent. If you completely punt the tight end position, you could certainly do worse than Fant. I just don’t see myself needing to draft him. There are better options out there.

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