Surprise wins by the Tennessee Titans and the New Orleans Saints shook up the 2026 NFL Draft order in Week 14. What are the latest No. 1 overall pick scenarios for the upcoming cycle, and which teams stand to benefit from the most recent movement?
2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Race: Giants and Raiders Get Help in Week 14
Entering Week 14, the Titans held the No. 1 overall pick by a slim margin over the New York Giants. The Saints were positioned at No. 3 overall, the Las Vegas Raiders were positioned at No. 4 overall, and the Cleveland Browns rounded out the top-five.
In the aftermath of Week 14’s early Sunday window, there’s a new owner of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft order: the New York Giants.
By beating the Browns in a close 31-29 battle, the Titans moved to 2-11, claiming the same record as the Giants. By virtue of the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, the Titans now move down to No. 2 overall, while the Giants move into the No. 1 overall spot.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have also leapfrogged the Saints for the third overall pick, as the Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a shocking upset. That win puts the Saints at 3-9 overall on the year, superseding the 2-10 Raiders.
With a loss to the Denver Broncos in the mid-afternoon window, the Raiders fell to 2-11 and entered a tie with Tennessee and New York, but the Giants still hold the No. 1 overall pick due to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.
There are still four weeks of football left to be played after this week, and with Tennessee’s win, all of the top-eight teams in the 2026 NFL Draft order are separated by just one game between them. The Washington Commanders and New York Jets loom at 3-10 just past the top-five, and the Arizona Cardinals are in danger of falling to that same record.
Right now, however, there are three front-runners for the No. 1 overall pick: The Giants, Titans, and Raiders. The Raiders have the hardest schedule moving forward with clashes against the Eagles, Texans, and Chiefs, and a head-to-head battle between the Raiders and Giants in Week 17 is sure to have notable draft order implications.
Which NFL Team Has the Highest Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick?
Per PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Raiders now have the best chance of securing the first overall pick. Here’s a look at the teams with the best odds of picking No. 1 overall:
- Raiders, 30.8%
- Giants, 22.7%
- Titans, 16.7%
- Browns, 10.1%
- Commanders, 6.7%
- Saints, 6.2%
- Jets, 5.4%
Even though the Raiders currently hold the No. 2 pick, their remaining strength of schedule is what gives them an edge over the Giants and Titans.
Both the Giants and Titans selected quarterbacks in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft, so if either team lands the No. 1 pick, they are a candidate to ship it to a QB-needy team such as the Raiders, Jets, Browns, or Cardinals.
Current 2026 NFL Draft Order After Week 14
Here is the current 2026 NFL Draft order after Week 14:
1) New York Giants, 2-11
2) Las Vegas Raiders, 2-11
3) Tennessee Titans, 2-11
4) Cleveland Browns, 3-10
5) New Orleans Saints, 3-10
6) Washington Commanders, 3-10
7) New York Jets, 3-10
8) Arizona Cardinals, 3-10
9) Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons, 4-9)
10) Cincinnati Bengals, 4-9
11) Minnesota Vikings, 5-8
12) Miami Dolphins, 6-7
13) Baltimore Ravens, 6-7
14) Kansas City Chiefs, 6-7
15) Dallas Cowboys, 6-5-1
16) Carolina Panthers, 7-6
17) Detroit Lions, 7-5
18) New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts, 8-4)
19) Houston Texans, 8-5
20) Chicago Bears, 9-4
21) Los Angeles Chargers, 9-4
22) Buffalo Bills, 9-4
23) San Francisco 49ers, 9-4
24) Seattle Seahawks, 10-3
25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-6
26) Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-6
27) Philadelphia Eagles, 8-5
28) Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars, 9-4)
29) Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers, 9-3-1)
30) New England Patriots, 11-2
31) Los Angeles Rams, 10-3
32) Denver Broncos, 10-2
Top Prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft
Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (FL)
Rueben Bain Jr. has been a disruptive defender for as long as he’s been on the college football circuit. After joining the Hurricanes as a four-star recruit, Bain racked up 7.5 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in his true freshman campaign. Bain’s sophomore season was less productive, but he was nursing a calf injury, and he has a chance to bounce back as a junior. At 275 pounds, Bain has a rare body type for the position, with elite compact mass and natural leverage, and he’s an easy accelerator with awesome raw hand power. While power is his primary mode, he has a deep pass-rush bag and smooth upper-lower synergy, superb strength, IQ, and pursuit range in run defense, and surprising flexibility as a finisher.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Fernando Mendoza could be a potential first overall pick in waiting, and the leap could be coming at Indiana. At 6’5″, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel. He’s a crisp rotational and consistent areal thrower who flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability. Even beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws. There’s a definite degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down, in order to minimize unnecessary risks and forced throws. Nevertheless, he has all the physical and mental tools to catalyze a rise as a franchise QB candidate.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Dante Moore has gone from dark horse to definite QB1 contender. It’s tough to call a former five-star recruit a dark horse, but Moore’s college career got off to a slower start than many expected. As a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, he started five of nine games played with subpar efficiency. Then he transferred to Oregon and threw just eight passes in 2024 while redshirting behind Dillon Gabriel. But now that Moore has had time to develop, and now that he has the reins in a QB-friendly Oregon environment, he’s looking like an early first-round pick. At 6’3″, 210 pounds, Moore boasts easy, effortless velocity and layering ability as his calling card, and he looks supremely poised, composed, and mechanically-sound for his age. He had ice in his veins against Penn State in a tough environment, and is on a steep ascent to potential QB1 status.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
Arvell Reese is a first-year starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes, who could be at the start of an early-round ascent in 2025. He was the Buckeyes’ best player in their season-opening win against the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, with nine total tackles and a sack. Along the way, Reese put translatable reps on tape as a pass-rusher, a run defender, and a coverage presence. At 6’4″, 243 pounds, Reese has a tantalizing blend of explosive athleticism, length, and forklifting strength. He used that strength to stack-and-shed in the run game, plaster solo blockers into the turf as a blitzer, and make solo stops in gap invasion. Meanwhile, his range and fluidity makes him dangerous as a rusher, as well as a dropper and matcher in zone coverage. Reese is on the rise; the only question is how high he goes.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Caleb Downs has received first-round premonitions from the general consensus ever since he set foot on Georgia’s campus as a five-star recruit. An instant producer at the CFB level, Downs was a star for the Bulldogs’ vaunted defense in 2023, and then for Ohio State’s Championship-level unit in 2024. Now Downs is eligible, and he’s already in the conversation as one of the best safety prospects in recent memory. A fluid, explosive, and energized mover at 6’0″, 205 pounds, Downs is special in the box with his combined mobility, play pace, angle IQ, and physicality on blocks. And on top of his alley-running skills, he’s an instinctive cover man who can manage route relationships, transition, and clamp down on stems from different alignments. In short, he’s a game-changer.
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Carnell Tate first showed promise with a 52-733-4 receiving line last season, producing in spite of his place as the Buckeyes’ third option alongside Jeremiah Smith and first-round NFL Draft pick Emeka Egbuka. But in 2024, Tate’s technical feel was still underdeveloped. He was primarily a vertical threat for Ohio State, who lacked polish. That hasn’t been the case in 2025. Tate has reinvented his game, and has become a true route-running expert with rare sink, throttle control, and stem IQ for his size. He still has the long-strider range, body control, and catch-point focus that makes him so potent in 50-50 situations, but he’s a true multi-level separator who can win 1-on-1, convert on clutch downs, and generate big plays. A complete X or movement-Z, Tate will assuredly keep Ohio State’s first-round streak at WR alive, and he has impact starter ability.
