The Cleveland Browns have been without star running back Nick Chubb for over a year, but he recently returned to practice, giving Browns fans and fantasy managers hope that a return is right around the corner. Will Chubb play in Week 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles? If not, when can we expect him back in Cleveland’s lineup?
The Latest on Nick Chubb’s Injury
The Browns designated Chubb to return from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list last week, but they haven’t activated him to their active roster. Unfortunately, he has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Eagles.
However, Chubb logged limited practices this week and it appears he’s slated to return in Week 7 when Cleveland faces the Cincinnati Bengals.
According to Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com: “Browns running back Nick Chubb has been giving the Browns defense excellent looks on the scout team, and he’s almost ready to make his historic return to the field from his second major left knee reconstruction.
“With the Browns designating Chubb to return from the physically unable to perform list on Oct. 3, his 21-day practice window is narrowing, and he’s expected to come bolting out of the tunnel next week against the Bengals and play for the first time since suffering the injury in Week 2 of last season in Pittsburgh.”
As Cabot notes, Chubb’s return is miraculous considering he’s now had two ACL surgeries on the same knee, plus he tore his meniscus and medial capsule. In other words, he “has torn every ligament in the knee at least once, and several twice.”
She adds that Browns running backs coach Duce Staley “can’t remember another NFL running back who’s come back from two major reconstructions of the same knee.”
Chubb suffered his serious knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season, and he had two surgeries over the last year.
#Browns Nick Chubb on if he feels he will get back to form. Short and sweet. pic.twitter.com/CsjAYNB5Fc
— Coop (@JJCoop25) October 3, 2024
While Chubb has reportedly looked great in practice and as a member of the scout team, being able to go through the rigors of an entire football game is very different. All eyes will be on Chubb to see how he looks in his first action since the devastating knee injury.
When asked if he believes he’ll be able to return to his pre-injury form, Chubb responded: “I guess we’ll all find out at the same time.”
Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman should continue to lead the backfield in Week 6 with Chubb sidelined. In Week 7, it will be interesting to see how the Browns split the touches among their three running backs, as they could gradually ease Chubb back into his usual workload rather than giving him a ton of carries right off the bat.
It’s tough to trust anyone in the Browns’ offense right now from a fantasy perspective, but they do have a reasonable matchup against an Eagles defense that’s allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry this season (5.0).
Fantasy Outlook for Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford
While all signs point to Chubb returning in Week 7, it remains to be seen when he’ll be a usable option in fantasy lineups. It’s hard to imagine the Browns giving Chubb a significant workload next week, so expect them to ramp up his usage each week.
When healthy, Chubb has been a consistent fantasy force, averaging 15.9-17.3 fantasy points per game from 2019-2022. Even in limited action last season, he showed elite rushing ability with 6.1 yards per carry.
From 2020 to 2022, 42 running backs carried the rock at least 300 times. Chubb had as good of a case as any of them to be considered the top rusher over that stretch (minimum 300 carries):
- First in yards per carry (5.3)
- Second in rushing yards per game (89.6)
- Third in rushing touchdowns per game (0.7)
If Chubb can return to form and give you 15-17 fantasy points per game for even eight games, he’ll be a valuable fantasy asset.
However, here’s the pessimistic scenario: At nearly 29 years old, there’s a real chance Chubb won’t return to his former self. He might end up in a timeshare or could even reaggravate his injury, making him a risky stash.
As for Ford, this will likely be the last week where he has RB2 value in fantasy since Chubb is returning. Ford is averaging just over 10 fantasy points per game, and he’s been the RB27 through the first month of the season.
With that said, Ford’s snap share has been tanking, going from 82.5% in Week 3 against the New York Giants to 77.2% in Week 4 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders to just 59.3% last week against the Washington Commanders.
While this is a great matchup against an Eagles defense that has allowed a league-high 2.3 15+ yard runs per game to RBs this season, Ford is a risky start. He is our RB25 this week, and he’s much more likely to move down the ranking than up as we approach kickoff.
Once Chubb returns, Ford won’t completely disappear, especially early on as they slowly increase Chubb’s workload. But while Ford has played well at times, if Chubb is even 75% of the running back he was pre-injury, that’s still going to be enough to retake the lead role in this backfield. Given his diminishing role and Chubb’s imminent return, if you can sell high on Ford, now is the time to do it.