Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Profile: The Browns RB Offers Late-Season Value

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb is on his way back from an awful knee injury that required multiple surgeries. Certain to miss the start of the season, is it worth it for fantasy football managers to draft Chubb and stash him on IR until he’s able to return?

Should You Select Nick Chubb at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 87th Overall (RB31)

• Injury Concerns: Chubb is coming off a severe knee injury involving three torn ligaments and a dislocated knee, which complicates his recovery and future performance. There’s a risk he might not regain his previous explosiveness.
• Past Performance: When healthy, Chubb has been a consistent fantasy force, averaging 15.9-17.3 fantasy points per game from 2019-2022. Even in limited action last season, he showed elite rushing ability with 6.1 yards per carry.
• Uncertainty on Return: Chubb is certain to miss the start of the season, and it’s unclear when he’ll be back or how effective he’ll be. This uncertainty makes it hard to gauge his value.
• ADP Value: Chubb is currently being drafted around RB39. The decision to draft him hinges on whether you believe his potential return, even for half a season, is worth more than the alternatives available at that spot.
• Optimistic Scenario: If Chubb can return to form and give you 15-17 ppg for even 8 games, drafting him at his current ADP could be a steal.
• Pessimistic Scenario: At nearly 29 years old, there’s a real chance Chubb won’t return to his former self. He might end up in a timeshare or could even reaggravate his injury, making him a risky stash.
• Final Verdict: While there’s a league-winning upside, the uncertainty around his recovery and return timeline makes Chubb a risky pick. If you’re optimistic, you might take the plunge, but it’s not a move I would recommend. I have him ranked as my RB41, well below his current ADP.

PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Nick Chubb

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Chubb is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead. 

31) Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Dallas Cowboys
32) Javonte Williams, RB | Denver Broncos
33) Devin Singletary, RB | New York Giants
34) Gus Edwards, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Tony Pollard, RB | Tennessee Titans
36) Nick Chubb, RB | Cleveland Browns
37) Austin Ekeler, RB | Washington Commanders
38) Trey Benson, RB | Arizona Cardinals
39) Chase Brown, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
40) Zach Charbonnet, RB | Seattle Seahawks
41) Jerome Ford, RB | Cleveland Browns

Chubb’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season

Injuries are easily the most frustrating aspect of fantasy football. In-season injuries are definitely the worst, but navigating players entering the season hurt is always a challenge.

When healthy, we know what we’re getting from Chubb. From 2019-2022, he averaged between 15.9 and 17.3 fantasy points per game. That’s remarkable predictability in a sport where few things are predictable.

Despite being past the age apex, Chubb was as elite a rusher as ever in his limited action last season. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry on his 28 attempts. If Chubb can fully recover — even in his age-29 season — there’s little reason to expect his skills to wane.

Unfortunately, Chubb’s knee injury wasn’t your standard ACL tear. He tore three ligaments and dislocated his knee. As well as his recovery has been reported to be going, there’s a nonzero chance Chubb never regains the speed and explosiveness that made him one of the best pure runners in NFL history over the past half-decade.

Is Chubb a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

Had Chubb not gotten hurt, he would likely have entered the season being drafted as an RB1. Instead, he’s being drafted as an RB4, specifically going around RB39.

When considering whether a player is worth drafting at his ADP, it’s important to figure out what that player’s expected fantasy points will be. In 99% of cases, it’s easy. You can simply look up what the average RB4 scored last season.

For Chubb, we can’t do that. Instead, we have to do an internal cost/benefit assessment of whether six, eight, or 10 weeks of Chubb is worth more than the alternatives going around him.

When players are suspended, this proposition is much easier. We know the player is coming back healthy, so all we have to deduce is whether not having that player’s production for a certain predetermined number of weeks is worth drafting him at his ADP.

In a situation like Chubb’s, we don’t know when he’ll return. Most importantly, we don’t know what level of production we’re getting when he does.

The best way to go about this is to break your analysis up into pieces. First, figure out where you would be willing to draft him if you knew you were only getting eight games of vintage Chubb production. If you knew you would get around 15-17 ppg for eight games, is that worth his RB39 price tag? To that, I say absolutely.

Next, we need to factor in how likely it is Chubb returns to his former self. This is where things start to fall off for me.

At nearly 29 years old, it’s hard to feel great about Chubb experiencing no drop off in ability. If he returns to a timeshare with Jerome Ford or D’Onta Foreman, and is merely a low RB2, is that worth drafting at his RB31 ADP? I’m not so sure.

Finally, we need to factor in the possibility that Chubb either can’t return this year or reaggravates his injury. After adding all of that up, I’m mostly out on Chubb this season.

Is the potential there for Chubb to be a league winner? Absolutely. Unfortunately, I don’t believe the chance to be high enough to justify stashing him for an indeterminate amount of time, hoping he returns near his peak ability.

I have Chubb ranked as my RB41, which is far enough below consensus that I am unlikely to land him. If you’re more optimistic about his recovery, then by all means, draft him. It’s just not something I can recommend based on the information we have.