The Toronto Maple Leafs were supposed to be a playoff lock. As December begins, however, what started as a slow start no longer feels temporary, it feels like a slide. The conversation around the team has shifted from wondering when they will get hot to questioning if they will get it together in time.
A new projection has revealed a startling number regarding the potential trouble the Maple Leafs might be in, raising alarms for a team and a city with high expectations.
Why Have the Maple Leafs’ Playoff Odds Dropped So Sharply?
The Maple Leafs’ season has been stuck treading water, and the latest projection update from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn put firm numbers to that concern. While Toronto has shown flashes of its potential, inconsistency has caused it to slide in areas it once controlled. Luszczyszyn’s model highlighted that decline, noting that “Toronto’s track record keeps the Leafs at the top of that pile, though they’ll have to actually start playing up to that ability soon.” While intended as reassurance, the statement also spotlighted the urgent need for improvement.
This inconsistency is directly reflected in Toronto’s current record. The team has been competitive but fundamentally unreliable. Games that should have helped them build momentum slipped away because of defensive issues, and the goaltending has not been able to hold up when the structure breaks down. The Maple Leafs can certainly score, but this imbalance has become a recurring pattern, and projection models often penalize teams that fail to trend upward early in the season.
The most significant change, however, stemmed from a broader trend. Canadian teams as a group saw the steepest decline in playoff odds, with Toronto at the forefront, taking a massive 29 percent hit in just one month. Luszczyszyn summed up the core issue bluntly, stating:
“The Leafs and Canucks can’t defend.”
For Toronto, that simple diagnosis points directly to the primary issue holding the team back from achieving its goals. There is still some confidence in the group due to its overall track record, but the longer the Maple Leafs fall short of their expected level of play, the more that cushion of trust erodes. The rest of the Eastern Conference is not pulling away, but the middle of the standings is getting crowded, a situation that makes every small drop in the odds more noticeable.
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Even with William Nylander and John Tavares driving the offense, Toronto is not getting enough support in key moments. The team’s power play has not been as dominant as usual, and without that advantage, defensive mistakes become even more costly. The new projections reflect these problems, and the past month has shown just how much ground the Maple Leafs have lost.
Ultimately, Toronto remains in the mix, but its margin for error has become significantly smaller. The analytical model signals that the team cannot afford to wait for things to improve on their own. If the Maple Leafs want to secure a safer playoff position, they need to make adjustments soon, because expectations around the league are already starting to shift.