The Edmonton Oilers’ chances of lifting the 2025 Stanley Cup have taken a serious hit. After losing two of the first three games in the Final to the Florida Panthers, their title odds have dropped sharply.
Oilers’ 2025 Stanley Cup Odds Drop After Back-to-Back Losses
Game 3 was a turning point. The Oilers were routed 6-1 in Florida, giving the Panthers a 2-1 series lead. With another game in Sunrise, Fla., on Thursday, June 12, the defending champions could soon have a commanding 3-1 advantage.
Only seven teams in NHL history have recovered from a 0-2 deficit in Round 1 to reach the Final, and all of them went on to win the Cup. But the Oilers’ recent performance casts doubt on a similar Cinderella run.
“When the Oilers entered the playoffs this year, they had an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. After losing two games in Round 1, that dropped to 3.1% or 1/32,” shared Big Head Hockey on X.
When the Oilers entered the playoffs this year, they had an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
After losing two games in Round 1, that dropped to 3.1% or 1/32 odds.
Only 7 teams in NHL history went 0-2 in round 1 and then made the final.
100% of those teams won the Cup. pic.twitter.com/dlojBfay2e
— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) June 7, 2025
The 2025 Stanley Cup Final started as a tight series. Games 1 and 2 at Rogers Place in Edmonton went into overtime, and both sides held a very tight lead until the blowout in Game 3. The Panthers dominated from start to finish on their home ice, with Brad Marchand scoring for the third straight outing and making history as the oldest player to net goals in the first three games of a Final.
The Oilers, on the other hand, were flat. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were held off the scoresheet, something that hadn’t happened all postseason. The Panthers outplayed the Oilers in nearly every facet: physicality, puck control, and special teams. Now, the pressure’s on the Oilers to regroup in Game 4.
Despite the lopsided loss, advanced metrics still give the Oilers some hope. They hold a slight edge in expected goal differential (+0.16 at 5-on-5) and lead in high-danger scoring chances. If they can rediscover their form and steal Game 4 on the road, they’ll have momentum going back home with the series tied.
Discipline will be key for the Oilers moving forward. Game 3 saw tempers boil over with 140 combined penalty minutes, the most in a Final game since 1986. Fights broke out late, leading to ejections and a slew of misconduct penalties.
McDavid downplayed the scuffles, calling it “garbage time” action. But frustrations were clear. Goaltender Stuart Skinner and forward Evander Kane both hinted at questionable calls and alleged embellishments from Panthers players. Kane remarked, “They seem to get away with it more than we do. It’s tough to find the line.”
Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk didn’t shy away from the chaos, saying, “If you have to take a punch, take a punch.”
The Oilers’ physicality is part of their game, too, but the team knows it will need to return to its style and avoid being baited into distractions.
Updated Stanley Cup Odds Ahead of Game 4
After the Game 3 loss, sportsbooks have shifted heavily in Florida’s favor. According to FanDuel:
- Oilers To Win the Cup: +215
- Panthers To Win: -265
- Panthers To Win 4-1: +240
- Oilers To Win 4-3: +340
Game 4 is critical. If the Oilers tie the series, it’s back to Edmonton with new life, but a third straight loss could spell the beginning of the end. The puck drops on Thursday, June 12, and the Oilers’ season may be on the line.
