The Edmonton Oilers are bracing to face the New Jersey Devils in a few hours, and the excitement has reached a fever pitch. The Oilers are under immense pressure to turn things around after their recent defeat at the UBS Arena against the New York Islanders. As usual, all eyes will be on Captain Connor McDavid, who has long enraptured fans in Edmonton and beyond with his infinite hockey skills, but he has had a relatively slow start this season.
A look at McDavid’s stats will help drive the point home: in the four games he has played this season, the Oilers captain has accumulated five points: five assists and zero goals. For many, this could seem rather underwhelming. Now, @datadrivenhockey on Instagram has helped break down the situation.
Connor McDavid’s Lousy Start to the Season Explained
McDavid has set the personal goal of outdoing himself this season, but his performance so far may not have everyone convinced. Although his shorter contract, which came to fruition after seemingly never-ending discussions, is expected to keep the team on its toes, fans expect more pomp and glory from the center, who is undoubtedly the best in the league.
@datadrivenhockey on Instagram has compiled figures that help put players’ expected numbers into perspective vis-à-vis their realized numbers. Using standards like UxG (unexpected goals, aka goals above expectations) and IxG (expected goals from players’ shot attempts), the profile divides players into the luckiest and the unluckiest.
“The luckiest (and unluckiest) shooters so far this season! To be fair some of the players in the lucky list have outscored their expectations in the past – Dorofeyev for instance, though he has a smallish track record. Regardless, the best finishers in the league can maybe score 50% over expected (so 30 goals on 20 xG) over large samples, so don’t expect the guys here to keep it up,” reads the caption.
McDavid, a generational talent, has fallen considerably short of expectations. The Oilers captain was expected to have an IxG of 2.73, but with zero goals so far into the season, he is one of the unluckiest shooters with a UxG of -2.73. Behind McDavid are several big names, like Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens, fellow Oilers teammate David Tomasek, Calgary Flames cornerstone Nazem Kadri, among others. None of Tomasek, Kadri, Suzuki, or McDavid has managed a single goal in any games played this season.
Among the luckiest, aka those who exceeded expectations, were players like Ottawa Senators’ Shane Pinto, with a UxG of 3.89 against 2.11 IxG. Pinto has accumulated six goals in his five games with the Senators this season. Kirill Kaprizov, fresh off the most massive payday the league has ever seen, has exceeded expectations. The Minnesota Wild standout’s UxG stands at 2.24 against an IxG of 1.76. Kaprizov has four goals.
Are these stats worth anything, or is McDavid, by definition, above numbers? Will the Oilers captain be able to prove that he is still the one to watch out for?
