NFL Week 5 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Impacts of Alvin Kamara, Kenny Pickett, Tyler Allgeier, and Others

    If you're betting on 2022 NFL games -- whether props, DFS, point spreads, or moneylines -- here are our final NFL Week 5 predictions and picks.

    Hello, everybody. Here’s our final look at our NFL Week 5 predictions and picks for the remaining 15 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

    NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions

    Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

    What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting sub-plots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

    With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed, including two major questions surrounding each team’s execution of its offense.

    Green Bay Packers (-8) vs. New York Giants

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 9:30 a.m. ET

    Is Romeo Doubs the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay? Not if Allen Lazard has anything to say about it. And of course, second-round rookie Christian Watson is no slouch. While this receiving corps remains an exciting work in progress, the sturdy backfield looks as dominant as ever.

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    Meanwhile, the Giants have one of the most one-dimensional offenses in modern NFL history. I can’t envision New York losing by less than 10 points.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Packers
    Moneyline winner: Packers

    Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    The Kenny Pickett era has begun, and none-too-soon for the 1-3 Steelers that — let’s not forget — opened the season by beating the Bengals on the road. The opposing Bills are probably the most annoyed 3-1 team in the league. Pickett’s first NFL start could not be much tougher. Expect Buffalo to push through Pittsburgh’s offensive line and make the rookie look like . . . well, a rookie.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
    Moneyline winner: Bills

    Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Can any team stop Nick Chubb? It’s a fair question for an in-his-prime running back who’s pushing Jamaal Charles for the NFL’s highest career yards per carry (minimum 750 carries).

    Still, the Browns are giving up too many points given their limitations in the passing game, and the opposing Chargers can score in buckets with or without Keenan Allen. LA should win by at least a field goal.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
    Moneyline winner: Chargers

    Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Chicago Bears

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Justin Fields is averaging 92.5 passing yards per contest. Last year, three WRs averaged more. Let that sink in. Entering last Sunday, Fields had the fewest passing yards through Week 3 of any QB since 1975. In the DFS era, we’ve never seen anything like this.

    While Chicago has mostly held opposing quarterbacks in check, their opponents have included Trey Lance, Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones. And they’re very beatable on the ground. Minnesota’s balanced attack should wear out the Bears, culminating in a 12+ point victory.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
    Moneyline winner: Vikings

    New England Patriots (-3) vs. Detroit Lions

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    As of Friday, we are still confronting plenty of unknowns at key positions. But we can conclude two things. First, the Patriots can win this game with its backfield tandem of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson and an underrated defense. Second, Detroit’s defense has been painfully deficient. New England will have a game plan designed to keep the Lions’ defense on the field as long as possible. It’ll probably work.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
    Moneyline winner: Patriots

    New Orleans Saints (-5.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Alvin Kamara should be back, and Michael Thomas probably won’t. But one for two ain’t bad. Combined with rookie sensation Chris Olave and a near-elite defense, New Orleans should be able to slow down the overachieving Seahawks.

    MORE: Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week, and Scores for Every Game

    After getting cast aside for most of his career, Geno Smith has found a home and made the most of this opportunity. Still, the Saints held him in check in a spot start last year, and the Niners did the same in Week 2. I expect more of the same in Week 5.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
    Moneyline winner: Saints

    New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    I’m switching my bets from the Dolphins to the Jets, both for picks against the spread and moneylines. Teddy Bridgewater’s heroic Week 4 effort notwithstanding, Miami faces an uphill climb with one of the NFL’s worst running games and pass defenses. New York might not have one of the best WR tandems in the league, but they can go toe-to-toe or better at many other positions on both sides of the ball.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
    Moneyline winner: Jets

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Atlanta represents an ideal matchup for a struggling, proud franchise loaded with talent that the Falcons can only dream of securing. Yes, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are future NFL stars. But Marcus Mariota can do only so much, and with Cordarrelle Patterson out, Mariota might do even less. Yes, rookie Tyler Allgeier might step up. More realistically, Tampa Bay will engineer its most convincing win since last season.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
    Moneyline winner: Buccaneers

    Washington Commanders (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    I believe Washington will take this one, sending the Titans to 2-3 and forcing them to decide whether to become buyers before the trade deadline to add a needed receiver and/or to shore up their defense.

    Carson Wentz dominated in the first two weeks before falling back to Earth. His true self lies somewhere in between. This is a get-right matchup for a QB facing a prove-it year, and for a still relatively youthful offensive corps with a lot to prove.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Commanders
    Moneyline winner: Commanders

    Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs. Houston Texans

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    The Texans are a lot like the Giants on offense, though at least their No. 1 WR is healthy. That said, Houston remains a sub-par team.

    MORE: Strongest NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Plays Include Jaguars vs. Texans and Packers vs. Giants

    It’s easy to envision a bounce-back performance for a half-dozen Jags, culminating in 30+ points. While Dameon Pierce has been a revelation, he alone cannot rival Jacksonville’s more functional offense.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
    Moneyline winner: Jaguars

    Carolina Panthers (+6.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

    Baker Mayfield probably would be on the bench if Sam Darnold or Matt Corral were healthy. It would take a monumental shift for the former No. 1 overall draft pick to turn around his career in Carolina.

    Facing a tough Niners defense won’t help his cause. The Panthers’ path to victory runs through the durability-challenged Christian McCaffrey. It probably won’t be enough.

    Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
    Moneyline winner: 49ers

    Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

    It would be easy to count out the Rams after what we witnessed Monday night against the 49ers. For the first time since 2016, Matthew Stafford has endured back-to-back zero-TD performances. I’m expecting Los Angeles to return home stronger than how they left it. The running game has nowhere to go but up, and Cooper Kupp remains arguably the best non-QB weapon in the sport.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Rams
    Moneyline winner: Rams

    Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

    Earlier this week, I picked the favored Eagles to cover. Now I’m rolling with Arizona in the belief the Cardinals are much more likely to lose by 4-8 points than by 9+. It’s a tough call, and the outcome might hinge on one big play (for example, Philly is No. 2 in the league in 40+ yard plays). I’m comfortable betting on Kyler Murray to keep this one competitive.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
    Moneyline winner: Eagles

    Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

    • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
    • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

    If you like football, this game will have everything. Except defense. Well, maybe that’s not fair. But we’re talking about two teams that can score 40+ when things are clicking.

    The betting line suggests this is an even matchup that favors the home squad. I agree with that assessment. This one could go back and forth, with Lamar Jackson — coming off a rough outing against Buffalo — proving once again to be the difference in front of a Baltimore crowd.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
    Moneyline winner: Ravens

    Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

    • Date: Monday, Oct. 10
    • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

    I keep thinking, “What if this is the game that changes the trajectory of the AFC West?” That would assume the Raiders come out on top. And that’s entirely possible. At their best, Las Vegas can be an NFL powerhouse, or at least a playoff team. But Kansas City simply looks too tough at too many key positions.

    The Chiefs have won 13 of the last 15 meetings with the Raiders. Not that this matters very much. What matters more is that in their last two outings, K.C. has outscored them 89-23. And while the Raiders’ run defense has improved, and the addition of Davante Adams has been tremendous, they’re still giving up too many points. It will be hard for them to keep this one within single digits.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
    Moneyline winner: Chiefs

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