The NFL season is almost over. Twelve teams know they are going to the playoffs, and four division titles are wrapped up already. Only the Green Bay Packers know where they will be seeded, leaving the door open for many seeding possibilities.
There are still two spots up for grabs and four division titles to be clinched in Week 18. Here’s how these clinching scenarios work for the final week of the regular season.
Week 18 Playoff Scenarios
CLINCHED:
- Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West title
- New England Patriots (13-3) – AFC East title
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – playoff berth
- Houston Texans (11-5) – playoff berth
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – playoff berth
- Buffalo Bills (11-5) – playoff berth
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – playoff berth
- Chicago Bears (11-4) – NFC North title
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – NFC East title
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4) – playoff berth
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4) – playoff berth
- Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) – NFC No. 7 seed
The remaining two playoff spots will be clinched in Week 18 as the teams vying for each spot are set to play each other in the final week.
NFC South Clinching Scenarios
The NFC South is one of two divisions that haven’t had its winner clinch the playoffs yet. The team representing the NFC South in the playoffs will be the No. 4 seed.
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
If the Panthers win this game, it’s simple: they clinch the NFC South at 9-8, the No. 4 seed, and a home playoff game.
The situation becomes complicated if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers due to tiebreakers. The Buccaneers and Panthers would share the head-to-head tiebreaker at 1-1, share the divisional record tiebreaker at 3-3, and Tampa Bay would win the third tiebreaker of common opponents.
If the Falcons win their next two games, against the Rams and Saints, they would also finish at 8-9. This would trigger a three-way tie.
In this scenario, the Panthers win the NFC South:
- All three tied at 8-9
- CAR 3-1 vs. TB & ATL (swept ATL), TB 2-2, ATL 1-3
Carolina simply needs a win, while the Buccaneers need a win and a Falcons loss. The Week 18 game will be a winner-take-all game if the Falcons lose their Monday Night Football game. The Panthers and Buccaneers have left the door open for each other, and now it’s time for one team to shut the door.
The Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight games, and the Panthers just beat them in Week 16. If this trend continues, Carolina will return to the playoffs after a long drought. If Tampa Bay gets out of its slump, it’ll be representing the NFC South yet again.
AFC North Clinching Scenarios
The Steelers and Ravens have handed each other the opportunity to take control of the division at times throughout the season. It’s only fitting that the two teams will play in Week 18 for the division title.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
If Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers win the division outright at 10-7.
If Baltimore wins, the Ravens win the division on the tiebreaker at 9-8. They would be tied in head-to-head record at 1-1 and would win on divisional record (BAL 4-2, PIT 3-3).
The Ravens will be hoping that Lamar Jackson is healthy for Week 18 and that Derrick Henry can return to his form from Week 17. The Steelers will be without their star WR DK Metcalf after he was suspended for two games for swinging at a Lions fan in Week 16. They looked bad against the Browns and will need to change their fortunes to win the division against a Ravens team with momentum on their side.
AFC South Clinching Scenarios
Both teams vying for the division title are already in the playoffs. But the Jaguars know what they have to do. The AFC South is theirs if they take care of business in Week 18.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
- Houston Texans (11-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Jacksonville wins the AFC South with a win or tie against the Titans in Week 18.
Houston wins the AFC South if they win against the Colts and the Jaguars lose to the Titans. They would win the division on the divisional tiebreaker (HOU 5-1, JAX 4-2) after they split in their regular-season meetings.
If the Jaguars don’t take care of business, they can only blame themselves. They’ll be replaying that Week 10 loss to the Texans in their heads, where they blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead by allowing 26 points in the final quarter.
The Jaguars have completely turned themselves around from last year, and the Texans dragged themselves out of a brutal start. Neither of these teams is to be taken lightly in the postseason.
NFC West Clinching Scenarios
The NFC West had three teams vying for the division title entering Week 17, but now only the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are in the running.
Week 18:
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Since the 49ers won on Sunday Night Football, the Rams are eliminated. Now, the Seahawks and 49ers will play in Week 18 with the winner taking the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
If Seattle wins, they win the NFC West at 14-3, and with a tie, they take the division at 13-3-1.
If San Francisco wins, they will win the NFC West on the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Seahawks after sweeping them in 2025.
The NFC West is loaded with three teams that are among the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl — the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams. All three teams are extremely dangerous, and teams won’t want to face them in the postseason, regardless of their seeding.
AFC No. 1 Seed Clinching Scenarios
The No. 1 seed in the AFC is between three teams: the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
- New England Patriots (13-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
- Denver Broncos (13-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
Denver clinches the No. 1 seed in the AFC if any of these situations occur:
- Broncos win
- Broncos tie + Patriots don’t tie or lose
The Broncos and Patriots would not have a head-to-head tiebreaker and will be tied at 9-3 against conference opponents. The Broncos would win on the common opponents tiebreaker because the Broncos beat the Raiders, and the Patriots didn’t.
The Patriots will clinch the No. 1 seed if they win and the Broncos fail to win. They can also clinch the top seed if they tie and the Broncos lose.
The Jaguars’ only path to the No. 1 seed is a win and a loss by both the Broncos and Patriots. All three teams would sit at 13-4, and Jacksonville would win the tiebreaker on conference record (JAX 10-2, DEN 8-4, NE 8-4).
It’s not impossible for the Jaguars to secure the No. 1 seed, but it’s unlikely that both the Broncos and Patriots will lose in Week 18. The AFC is wide open, and securing the No. 1 seed is huge. All three of these teams will be desperate to have the road to the Super Bowl run through their home and not have to play the extra game.
NFC No. 1 Seed Clinching Scenarios
The NFC No. 1 seed race comes down to two teams, and they both play in the NFC West: the 49ers and Seahawks. They will face off in Week 18 with the winner taking the division and the No. 1 seed.
Week 18:
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Since the 49ers beat the Bears on Sunday Night Football, a team from the NFC West is guaranteed to have the No. 1 seed.
If the Seahawks win in Week 18, they will be the No. 1 seed.
If the 49ers win in Week 18, they would be 13-4 and win the No. 1 seed on the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Seahawks after sweeping them in 2025. The same tiebreaker scenarios that would apply in the NFC West title would also apply here.
