Today’s late afternoon slate is highlighted by an elite quarterback matchup featuring Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, as the Buffalo Bills fight to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Kansas City Chiefs look to regain control of the top seed in the AFC. Will the Bills pull off the upset in Kansas City, or will the Chiefs get back on track? Find out in our NFL Week 14 predictions and picks for the late afternoon slate.
NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are from ESPN BET — sign up today and use promo code PFN when registering to secure $250 in bonus bets!
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -13.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +600, 49ers -900 - Total
46.5
Bearman: I think we know who the best team in the NFC — and maybe the NFL — is. In nine games with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams healthy, the Niners are 9-0 and winning by an average of over 20 PPG. All but one have been double-digit wins, and the one that wasn’t was due to a last-minute FG that Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay decided to kick (it covered the spread BTW).
MORE: NFL Week 14 ATS Standings
San Fran won the matchup by 18 two weeks ago in Seattle. The Niners have looked even better since then. I can’t say the same for the Seahawks. I grabbed the -10 with some juice before the line moved back up.
Pick: 49ers -10 (-125 at FanDuel)
Blewis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Almost every week, when the 49ers are at full strength offensively, I have given out their team total over, as it’s undefeated in their nine games with Samuel and Williams this season.
Even if the number is higher than it has ever been, why stop now? The 49ers have scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season with their entire starting offense, and they’re facing a Seahawks defense that just allowed 41 points and 411 yards of offense to the Dallas Cowboys.
Pick: 49ers over 29.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -150, Raiders +130 - Total
40.5
Bearman: Outside of putting up 30 on the New York Giants, the Raiders haven’t topped 21 points all season. The last time we saw the Vikings, Joshua Dobbs was throwing to the wrong team all night and they had 10 points against the Chicago Bears. Justin Jefferson should be back, but I still don’t expect a lot of points here.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
I was surprised to see the Raiders getting 1.5 points at home in this matchup when the lines first opened, so I’m even more surprised to now see them as three-point underdogs.
The Vikings are getting Jefferson back, but they were 5-2 without him. Before their bye week, Dobbs was falling back to reality, with four interceptions in his last game. The Dobbs story was fun, but I don’t think he’s deserving of being a three-point road favorite.
Although they have faced the Giants and New York Jets during this stretch, the Raiders have been the fifth-best defense by EPA/play in the NFL since Antonio Pierce has taken over as interim head coach. This isn’t that bad of a team.
Pick: Raiders +3 (-112 at DraftKings)
Katz: There is a lot of overreacting going on with Jordan Addison here. Between Dobbs being on a short leash, Jefferson returning, and Addison’s inconsistent play, we now have our lowest receiving line on him since early in the season.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings Week 14
Even with Jefferson back, it’s not as if Addison isn’t going to see targets. Addison has gone over this number in 10 of 12 games this season. I know we haven’t seen a game with both Addison and Jefferson with Dobbs this season, but there should be enough targets to go around for Addison to at least post a 3-40 line.
Pick: Jordan Addison over 32.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -2.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +125, Chargers -145 - Total
43.5
Bearman: The Broncos are one pass away from a six-game winning streak and from being one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, but that Russell Wilson pass was intercepted in the end zone, ending the streak.
They are still playing some of the best football in the league and should be favored here in my opinion. Brandon Staley and the Chargers stayed on life support with a 6-0 win against a woeful New England Patriots team, a win that felt more like a loss.
Denver is the better team right now and should not only beat the Chargers but potentially put an end to Staley’s tenure in L.A.
Pick: Broncos +3 (-125 at ESPN BET)
Soppe: Wilson certainly hasn’t been shy about throwing it deep and hoping for the best. Sutton has a slightly higher aDOT than Jerry Jeudy this season and has surpassed this number in each of his past six games.
I like that trend to continue in this spot against a bottom-five pass defense in most metrics that also blitzes at a top-10 rate, thus leaving Sutton in single coverage down the field. He should get multiple deep looks that can pay this prop off, not to mention the potential for him to turn a 5-10-yard pass into a longer gain.
I’m comfortable swallowing some juice in this specific matchup.
Pick: Courtland Sutton longest reception over 21.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -1 - Moneyline
Bills -105, Chiefs -115 - Total
48.5
Blewis: It’s always scary to fade Mahomes, especially when he’s giving less than three points. Even more so when he’s a short home favorite coming off a loss.
But I think these teams are evenly matched, and the Bills are basically in a win-or-go-home situation with how they’ve fallen behind in the AFC playoff race.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 14
Buffalo has been perhaps the most unlucky team this season, with no losses coming by more than one score. In fact, for the season, they’re 2-6 in one-score games, with one of the wins being a backdoor cover by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Given the value of taking the Bills compared to taking the Chiefs, I like them straight up, even.
Pick: Bills ML (+110 at FanDuel)
Katz:Â Since joining the Bills, Stefon Diggs has played six games against the Chiefs, including the playoffs. He’s had more than six receptions in just one of them.
While what happened in 2020 and 2021 doesn’t really matter because the teams are different, it is telling that the Chiefs made it a point to shut Diggs down as best as they could, as those defenses were far worse than the one they are sending out there this season.
The 2023 Chiefs defense is easily the best they’ve had during Mahomes’ tenure. They have been erasing opposing WR1s and specifically dominating outside receivers. The Bills may try and force the ball to Diggs, but I don’t think it will work.
Pick: Stefon Diggs under 6.5 receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Bills have plenty of defensive flaws, and opponents have been exploiting them via the short pass (lowest opponent aDOT this season). That, friends, is gold against a developing WR1 in Rashee Rice who leads all qualified receivers in yards after the catch per reception this season.
His playing time is gradually inching up, and with an 80% catch rate this season, each target carries with it high catch equity.
Pick: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
