NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: David Bearman Says To Back Jalen Hurts, Josh Dobbs, and Brock Purdy This Week

NFL Week 11 predictions and picks against the spread for every game this week, including Eagles vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

After Week 10 featured prime-time matchups that we didn’t want to watch, Week 11 gives us a totally different flavor with a great AFC North battle on Thursday night, two revived teams on Sunday Night Football, and a Super Bowl rematch set for Monday night.

Every team has played at least nine games, as we are firmly into the second half of the NFL season. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 11 predictions and picks against the spread.

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

  • Spread
    Ravens -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Bengals +160, Ravens -190
  • Total
    46.5

For this game, I am going to use a simple trend that our Cincinnati Bengals beat writer Jay Morrison uncovered. Since winning a Thursday night game at Philadelphia in December of 2012, the Bengals have lost 14 consecutive prime-time road games in the regular season and playoffs, as “prime time” is defined as a night game starting at 6:30 ET or later.

Every other team in the league has at least one road prime-time win during that span. Before you say “Well, Bengals are better now”… they are 0-4 with Burrow behind center.

And that’s only part of the problem. Who has the best home win percentage over this same time period? Glad you asked — the Baltimore Ravens, who are 12-3 during the last 10 years.

Trends aren’t everything, but I think the Ravens are the better team.

Pick: Ravens -3 (-125)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

  • Spread
    Chargers -3
  • Moneyline
    Chargers -165, Packers +140
  • Total
    44.5

There are few things less enjoyable than having money on the Los Angeles Chargers. I feel like I’d be committing a crime in suggesting that, but I also have no interest in betting the Green Bay Packers, even at home getting more than a field goal.

The Packers are the only team to make the Pittsburgh Steelers offense look like a real offense, and the Chargers are averaging over 30 ppg the last few weeks, so my only lean on this one is the over.

Pick: Lean over 42.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

  • Spread
    Jaguars -6.5
  • Moneyline
    Titans +250, Jaguars -300
  • Total
    39.5

Just when you buy in on Jacksonville, they get kicked to the curb at home by the San Francisco 49ers. That was the worst game of the season for the Jags, and it brings in a host of questions about if they are contenders or not.

What isn’t a question is the quality of the Tennessee Titans. They stink and got dominated by a not-great Tampa Bay Buccaneers team last week. This is a nice bounce-back spot for the Jags, but I am not completely sold to lay 6.5. I won’t play it solo, but if in a pool, lean Jacksonville.

Pick: Lean Jaguars -6.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

  • Spread
    Dolphins -12.5
  • Moneyline
    Raiders +550, Dolphins -800
  • Total
    47.5

Narrative or not, we do know one thing — the Miami Dolphins feast on average or worse football teams. Miami is 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite — 4-0 at home — covering by an average of 13 points per game above the spread.

Yes, there is an outlier in there, as they beat the Denver Broncos by 50, but they also beat the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and New England Patriots by two touchdowns or more. Miami returns home from Germany and had a bye to get the offense where it needs to be. They also welcome back RB De’Von Achane.

On the other side, the Las Vegas Raiders should be happy for their 2-0 record under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but remember, those were against the Giants and New York Jets. They are still sending out rookie QB Aiden O’Connell against an improving Dolphins defense.

Pick: Lean Dolphins -12.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

  • Spread
    Cowboys -10.5
  • Moneyline
    Cowboys -550, Panthers +425
  • Total
    42.5

From one mismatch to another, the Cowboys could get used to playing bad teams. That’s what they have feasted on this year, defeating the Giants twice, Jets, Patriots, Chargers, and Los Angeles Rams. They should have no problem with Carolina either, but laying 10 on the road gets you in trouble in the NFL.

MORE: NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds — Myles Garrett Has Surpassed Micah Parsons as the Betting Favorite

To me, the safer play is to isolate a bad Carolina offense against one of the better defenses in football. Carolina’s team total is at 14.5 — just above that magic number of 14. This is the same Panthers team that scored 15, 13, and 13 the last three weeks against defenses no where in the same neighborhood as the Cowboys.

The last time the Panthers scored two offensive touchdowns in a game was mid-October when the Dolphins forgot to show up in the first half.

Pick: Panthers team total under 14.5 (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Odds

  • Spread
    Texans -4
  • Moneyline
    Cardinals +165, Texans -195
  • Total
    48.5

This line comes with all sorts of warning signs. The books are baiting you into taking the red-hot and current AFC seventh-seeded Texans against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. While I do believe the Texans are better, the Cardinals with QB Kyler Murray and RB James Conner back are a different team.

MORE: Is C.J. Stroud a Legitimate MVP Candidate?

We saw the Cardinals play well early in the season with Conner healthy and QB Josh Dobbs in the backfield and looked like a different team with Murray back last week. This is a pass for me with red warning trap signs to not be baited by either side.

The Texans should win, but with Jacksonville on deck, this could be a look-ahead spot. Remember, Houston lost to the Panthers a few weeks ago.

Pick: Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

  • Spread
    Browns -2
  • Moneyline
    Steelers +110, Browns -130
  • Total
    34.5

My apologies for the loss on the Steelers’ team total under last week — the first time that bet had lost in weeks. Plus, it lost on a late field goal in the game, as the Steelers were icing the game. There’s no reason to back down because of that. Plus, the Steelers now face one of the best defenses in the league in the Browns.

Pick: Steelers team under 16.5

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Odds

  • Spread
    Commanders -9.5
  • Moneyline
    Giants +360, Commanders -450
  • Total
    37.5

You have to read this column every week to know where I am headed here. I would probably play this under as low as 33, and I for sure will take the under at 36.5. These teams met a month ago with QB Tyrod Taylor under center for the Giants and combined for 21 points.

The offense has been an even worse trainwreck with QB Tommy DeVito back there, and they only got to 17 against the Cowboys’ fourth string last week. My only concern is a poor Washington defense, but again, they held the Giants to 14 with Taylor under center.

It’s also your weekly reminder to play the team’s best WR against the Commanders. We are in a streak of nine consecutive weeks of a team’s top WR hitting the player prop over. Both WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Darren Waller went way over their totals in Week 7. Player props are not up at the time of writing this article.

Pick: Under 36.5 (Best Bet)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds

  • Spread
    Lions -9.5
  • Moneyline
    Bears +330, Lions -420
  • Total
    45.5

The Lions have developed a pattern this year of winning comfortably against bad teams and winning or losing close ones against good teams. That is where my lean is, but 9.5 might be too much with the Chicago Bears coming off a win and 10 days of rest.

Pick: Lean Lions -9.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

  • Spread
    49ers -11.5
  • Moneyline
    Buccaneers +385, 49ers -500
  • Total
    42.5

They’re back. A three-game losing streak entering the bye left two weeks of questions that the San Francisco 49ers answered in convincing fashion last week against the Jaguars. I don’t see this one playing out any differently with the ‘Niners at home playing a team a lot worse than Jacksonville.

Pick: Niners -11.5

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

  • Spread
    Bills -7
  • Moneyline
    Jets +260, Bills -320
  • Total
    40.5

So, people want to lay seven with a Buffalo Bills team that is second in the NFL with 18 giveaways, is averaging 20.5 points per game during a 2-4 run, and is facing a team that has one of the better defenses in the league?

MORE: Are the Bills in Danger of Missing the Playoffs?

No thanks. I’ll hold my nose, but I’ll take the Jets and seven points here and hope they don’t lose 13-3.

Pick: Jets +7 (Best Bet)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

  • Spread
    Seahawks -1
  • Moneyline
    Seahawks -115, Rams -105
  • Total
    46.5

Seattle might be the most confusing team in the league this season. They have a good mixture of solid wins (Cleveland Browns, Lions), bad losses (Rams), blow out wins (Giants), blowout losses (Ravens) and close games on both sides. They are hard to figure out.

The Rams have had their moments, including a win in Seattle in Week 1, but they have also failed to show up since mid-October. There is no real play here.

Pick: Pass

Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Odds

  • Spread
    Broncos -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Vikings +110, Broncos -130
  • Total
    43.5

A month ago, this game wouldn’t have mattered at all. The Vikings were 1-4, the Broncos were 1-5, and both teams were looking for the escape hatch.

Neither team has lost since, and they’re each on the edge of the playoff race. I believe more in Dobbs’ magic and what the Vikings are doing than the Broncos’ revival, so my pick for this one will be on the road team outright.

Pick: Vikings ML

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

  • Spread
    Chiefs -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Eagles +120, Chiefs -140
  • Total
    46.5

This should be one of the better games of the season — a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl classic and a matchup of the teams with the best record in each conference. Even though the game is in Kansas City, I think the wrong team is favored here, as the Eagles have been the better team all season, with the Chiefs still figuring things out on offense.

Kansas City got by Miami with their defense and the Dolphins’ mistakes, but they’ve struggled in recent weeks against the likes of Denver twice, Minnesota, and the Jets.

If the Super Bowl rematch was today, I would make the Eagles a slight favorite at a neutral site. I’m going to play them up to 3.

Pick: Eagles +3 (-120)

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