The first NFL Sunday is in the books. The 1:00 p.m. ET slate was highlighted by the San Francisco 49ers’ blowout win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill stole the show in the late afternoon as the duo connected for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Sunday Night Football was a complete dud, however, with the Dallas Cowboys destroying the New York Giants 40-0.
There was no shortage of storylines from a betting perspective, either. Following Sunday’s action, with just one game left to go, here is a breakdown of the NFL Week 1 betting trends.
Check out the first look at the NFL Week 2 Betting Lines as well as our Picks and Predictions for Bills vs. Jets.
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
Road Teams Dominated
The most notable trend from the NFL Week 1 games is that the road teams have dominated, going 12-3 ATS and 10-5 outright. In fact, after the 1:00 p.m. window, road teams went undefeated both straight up and against the spread, including three underdogs in the Dolphins, Raiders, and Rams.
The only three home teams to cover yesterday were the Browns (+1), Commanders (-7), and Falcons (-3.5).
According to ESPN Stats and Information, if the Bills (-2) cover against the Jets tonight, a 13-3 ATS record will be the second-highest cover percentage by road teams in a single week in the last 25 years.
Under Bettors Won Big
A common belief is that NFL teams, especially now with a shortened preseason, are rusty on offense to start the season. If you share this theory and heavily bet the under on game totals yesterday, then you won a lot of money. Through the 15 games played so far this week, unders are 11-4.
“We took some decent action on the unders yesterday” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Are these results a fluke or a sign of things to come is the big question. It will be interesting to see how the general public reacts, as in the past they were keener to bet overs rather than unders, but they have become shrewd in adjusting to these types of situations quicker than before.”
Public Teams Fell Short
At DraftKings Sportsbook yesterday, there were eight teams that received at least 70% of the bets on the spread, and they went a combined 3-5 ATS. The two most popular sides, however, the Jaguars -4.5 (83% of the bets) and the Eagles -3.5 (81% of the bets) — both covered.
Rookie Quarterbacks Struggled
Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson each struggled in their NFL debuts yesterday, going a combined 0-3 SU and ATS. Each of their teams lost by double-digits, with Young and Richardson losing to divisional rivals.
Young continued the historical trend of quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall having poor debuts. Since 2003, they’re 0-13-1 SU and 1-13 ATS.
Most Popular Player Prop Lost Badly
The Atlanta Falcons won 24-10 yesterday by relying mostly on their rushing attack on offense. They only threw the ball 18 times, and as a result, second-year WR Drake London finished with zero catches and zero yards. Good news for DraftKings Sportsbook, who received a lot of action on the over for his receiving yards prop.
Most-bet player prop @DKSportsbook: Drake London over 51.5 (-130) receiving yards.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 10, 2023
One Bettor Won Over $1.5 Million
Anyone who bet on the Cowboys -3.5 had the easiest win of their lifetime last night, as Dallas won 40-0 in a game that was never close. Tony Pollard anytime touchdown scorer was reported as one of the most popular props of the evening at multiple sportsbooks, and that cashed with ease.
MORE: Live Betting Odds and Newest Promos
One bettor at FanDuel Sportsbook placed a combined $2 million on these two bets and had a very nice payday of $1.8 million.
THE BIG BETS KEEP ON COMING 😦
One bettor just placed the following bets:
1️⃣ $1,000,000 on Cowboys -3.5
2️⃣ $1,000,000 on Tony Pollard anytime TDCould be looking at a total payout of over $3.8 MILLION 💰 pic.twitter.com/RksjPXJ6po
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 11, 2023