NFL Weather Report and Forecast Week 11: Will rain concerns dampen fantasy expectations?

Bye weeks in the NFL continue, and to help you make the best fantasy decisions, here is the NFL weather forecast and report for Week 11.

The NFL and the world of fantasy football head into Week 11 with our weekly weather report. Who doesn’t need more information to stress over? We break down the NFL slate, the weather forecast and report for Week 11, and if any of your fantasy players could be impacted.

As always, good luck. Stay safe. And let’s win this week.

Note: All times are Eastern Time, and the NFL Week 11 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 11 is based on reporting from the National Weather Service. All NFL odds are from the NFL’s official website.

NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 11: Will rain concerns dampen fantasy expectations?

2021 has just been a weird year. I feel like we can universally agree on this. It seems like no matter how much time and effort you pour into studying every angle of the NFL and the potential fantasy ramifications, you are quickly humbled and reminded that you just can’t see some things coming. 

It feels like multiple times every day, I end up scratching my head, going, how on Earth did that just happen? And that directly goes for fantasy football.

I don’t care what people say, you will never bat 1.000. But we can’t let those get the best of us. At the end of the day, this is a game played by a bunch of humans with an oddly-shaped ball, and sometimes, it simply doesn’t bounce the way it should.

So long as the process is sound, you can’t beat yourself up over the misses. At least that’s what I keep trying to tell myself on Sunday nights as I stare into my empty Old Fashioned glass while pondering what I just watched. Odds are I’ll be having another one of those tonight. And do you know what? I’m okay with that.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-12), O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

There is not an abundance of games I am concerned about, but I will have an eye on the conditions in Cleveland. It seems like every season when the nights get longer, Lake Erie wakes up. And go figure the 1 PM ET kickoff hits right when we are expecting to see some precipitation.

With that said, it’s not enough to overly concern me. Current forecasts project the total rainfall to be around 0.08-0.10″ throughout the game. The rain is expected to start earlier in the morning. So by the time players hit the field, it should already have some moisture on it.

But overall, I don’t see this as a game-impacting amount of rain. There is always the chance of a muffed punt or an extra drop, but I would not make any lineup decisions based on the expected conditions. There will be a crossing wind at 12 mph, but neither of these kickers are likely fantasy targets anyway.

As for the game, the Browns get back Nick Chubb, who is a locked-in RB1 as per usual. I do expect D’Ernest Johnson to see some work as he proved to the team he deserves additional touches. But make no mistake, this is Chubb’s show. As for the Lions, um, just stay away from anyone not named D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Tim Boyle is expected to get the start in place of Jared Goff (oblique), and things could get ugly. There’s a reason the Browns are 12-point favorites after all.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7), O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

Orchard Park is known for its wind, especially around this time of year. Not that it ever bothers Bills Mafia, who show up to every home game like it’s one big party. We’ll see the wind pick up in Week 11 with sustained winds around 13-16 mph and gusts in the upper 20s to nearly 30 mph.

I’m not so concerned about the sustained winds, but the gusts could make things like deep passes and any type of kick interesting. There is an added factor of rain but nothing more than a light drizzle (0.02″ in total).

I love this game from a matchup perspective. The Colts — who are 5-5 but winners of four of their last five — go against the vaunted Bills defense. Jonathan Taylor, the fantasy RB1 (21.1 ppg), enters with five 100-yard games and 9 TDs against the No. 1 ranked defense in points allowed (17.3).

Michael Pittman Jr., the WR3 since Week 5, takes on Tre’Davious White as he tries to solidify himself as one of the NFL’s top up-and-coming WRs in Year 2. Something has to give. You’re starting all the familiar characters, but know the floor might be a bit lower than average.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10), O/U 45 | Sunday 1 PM ET

If there is one game that might be impacted by weather, this is the one. Current forecasts are calling for rain to begin around 10 AM ET and continue into the night. The peak of which will be — go figure — right in the middle of the game.

Projected hourly rainfall totals will vary between 0.04 in/hr to 0.08 in/hr. In total, the area could see a quarter of an inch to three tenths by the final whistle. It’s going to get wet, but not enough to wash away all the mistakes made on Broadway last night.

I saw a tweet the other day, and it blew me away. The Titans have 20 players on injured reserve, the most in the NFL. They have dressed 82 different people on their active roster this season, the most in the NFL. Combined, they have lost 260 man games due to injuries == you guessed it, the most in the NFL. Yet, here they are sitting at 8-2 (No. 1 seed in the AFC) and have played the hardest strength of schedule of any team. Oh, the combined record of teams remaining on their schedule is 29-42-1.

Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

Well, you can’t call yourself the Windy City and not have a little wind, right? The near 50-degree temperatures will feel much colder thanks to the increased wind speeds as the game progresses. Sustained winds for kickoff will hover around 10-13 mph but rise closer to 15+ by the end.

That’s not enough for these teams to change who they are or alter their play-calling. The gusts could make things interesting though, especially for kicks. They’ll be around 20 mph for the opening whistle but could cross 30 mph towards the end of the game.

The story to watch is Lamar Jackson and his status. According to sources, he is currently listed as questionable and has a “50/50 chance” of playing, as he deals with a non-COVID-related illness. The Ravens will also be without Marquise Brown, who was ruled out due to a thigh injury. 

NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 11: Worry-free weather

The clear weather forecast is a welcome sight for fantasy managers. With that said, there is a 100% chance of chaos with a high probability of a hangover come Monday.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5), O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

I have been avoiding the Eagles’ backfield, and the return of Miles Sanders does nothing to change that for me. I don’t trust head coach Nick Sirianni or Sanders. You never know Sirianni’s game plan for the running backs, and even before his injury, Sanders wasn’t moving the needle (RB37 from Weeks 1-7). I think I’ll just sit this one out.

As for the Week 11 weather in Philadelphia, expect 56 degrees, partly sunny skies, and 5 mph winds. 

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

Finally, they decided to make their elite QB the starter rather than this nonsense they’ve been pulling in recent weeks. Oh, you thought I meant Tua Tagovailoa? This is awkward. I meant Joe Flacco. But I guess that Tua guy isn’t too bad either.

East Rutherford’s Week 11 weather forecast should feature mostly sunny skies, 6 mph winds, and highs near 56 degrees.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5), O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

Cam Newton having fun playing QB again just feels right. And go figure he will make his first 2021 start against his former coach Ron Rivera. It’s just one big reunion. The only thing I need in my life though is a video of DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel hugging before the game. I need that like I need air. The last video of them had us all crying in the club. We deserve this.

As for the weather forecast in Charlotte, expect partly cloudy skies, 5 mph winds, and 60-degree temperatures at kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET

After what was a positive start to the season, Marvin Jones has fallen off a cliff since the Jaguars acquired Dan Arnold and Jamal Agnew emerged. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 3.5 receptions and 40 yards per game. Jones has 1 touchdown since Week 2 and has just one game (Week 6) where he recorded more than 35 receiving yards. Add in Jones finishing outside the top 50 WRs in five of his last six outings, and he is well off the fantasy radar for me.

Expect 73-degree temperatures, 8 mph winds, and partly sunny skies in Jacksonville for Week 11.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5), O/U 46.5 | Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Another game, another week where Kyler Murray is a game-time decision. I don’t know about you, but I’m kind of over this. It’s bad enough when a locked-in QB1 is questionable, but to have it in the afternoon window makes it even worse.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported Saturday night the Cardinals will not make a decision until pregame warmups, but “signs heading into Sunday’s game in Seattle point to Colt McCoy starting his third straight game.” I’ll start a QB in the 1 PM timeslot and eliminate the potential headache, even though the matchup is excellent.

As for the weather forecast in Week 11, expect temperatures around 47 degrees, mostly cloudy skies, and light winds in Seattle.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3), O/U 56 | Sunday 4:25 PM ET

This game should be phenomenal. Two of the preseason Super Bowl favorites squaring up in what should be a high-scoring affair. But will the Chiefs hold up their end of the deal?

Patrick Mahomes has looked mortal this season, but last week (406 yards and 5 TDs) might have been a turning point for him to stop pressing so much. On the other side, Amari Cooper will miss Week 11 due to testing positive for COVID-19. He will also miss their Thanksgiving game due to the timing and NFL protocols.

Kansas City’s Week 11 weather forecast should feature sunny skies, 8 mph winds, and highs near 55 degrees.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5), O/U 49.5 | Monday 8:15 PM ET

Daniel Jones has never won a prime-time game. He is 0-7 under the bright lights. In fact, the last time the Giants won a prime-time game was back in Week 10 of 2018 against the 49ers in a 27-23 slobber knocker. The QB for that game was Eli Manning. It just so happens this game will get the Manningcast. Maybe the Giants are due for a big win, and they get the reverse curse. It’s 2021. Stranger things have happened.

As for the weather forecast in Tampa, expect partly cloudy skies, 6 mph winds, and 67-degree temperatures that will feel closer to 34 at kickoff.

Week 11 indoor games 

The teams below will play in optimal conditions, and there will be no effect on the passing and kicking game. This helps to eliminate at least one variable fantasy managers need to consider each week.

  • Green Bay (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
    O/U 47.5 | Sunday 1 PM ET
  • Cincinnati Bengals (1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
    O/U 50.5 | Sunday 4:05 PM ET
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
    O/U 47.5 | Sunday 8:20 PM ET

Week 11 bye week teams

The following teams have a bye in Week 11. Be sure to double-check lineups to remove any impacted players.

  • Denver Broncos
  • Los Angeles Rams

Tommy Garrett is a Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here, listen to him on PFN’s Fantasy Football podcast, and check out his contributions in PFN’s free fantasy newsletter. Give him a follow on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.