NFL Trade Value Charts: Different Draft Trade Value Charts To Follow

Ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, the conversation of which picks could be on the move is always in high gear. Not even just in the first round, but throughout the NFL Draft teams are looking to move up and down the board.

Of course, the instant conversation after deals are done is, “Who won?” and, “What pick gets moved next?”

Many things go into assigning value to the picks that get traded. For years, various models were created to try and standardize the value of draft picks. The influx of analytics and independent team values has rendered these models mostly obsolete. That said, they do give fans and media a starting point when discussing the various trades that are bound to happen.

The Jimmy Johnson NFL Trade Value Chart Is the Best-Known

Jimmy Johnson did not create draft value charts, but his chart is the most well-known around the NFL. In fact, Johnson took previous charts and modified them based on the data at the time.

When Johnson produced his original values, he did not factor in compensatory picks. This was because those NFL Draft selections were not able to be traded when Johnson produced his chart. Later adaptations have included those compensatory selections, affecting the values for selections in Rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7.

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While his chart is the most well-known, it is largely outdated due to the changing dynamics of the NFL Draft and the individualization of NFL team analytics, which has each team valuing things independently of other teams.

Values From the Jimmy Johnson NFL Trade Value Chart

• First selection: 3,000
• 16th selection: 1,000
• 32nd selection: 590
• First pick of Round 3: 265
• First pick of Round 4: 96
• First pick of Round 5: 38
• First pick of Round 6: 20.6
• First pick of Round 7: 3

Differences Between the Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, and Harvard Trade Value Charts

While the Johnson chart is widely accepted as the official trade value chart by many in the media, NFL teams have created their own charts that they place more value on, as it is individualized to their own organization.

With new statistical analysis able to be performed, the introduction of the rookie wage scale, and more, the need to adapt was always a requirement. Each franchise has its own analytics teams, and that is what is relied on during the draft.

Rich Hill Trade Value Chart

Rich Hill’s trade chart has become one of the most commonly referenced charts outside of the Johnson model, though rarely referred to much anymore. Hill’s trade value chart begins with a value of 1,000 for the No. 1 overall selection. It then drops to 717, 514, 491, and 468, respectively, through the first five selections. Here are the values from Hill’s chart using the same selections as Johnson’s.

• First selection: 1,000
• 16th selection: 305
• 32nd selection: 184
• First pick of Round 3: 78
• First pick of Round 4: 34
• First pick of Round 5: 16
• First pick of Round 6: 8
• First pick of Round 7: 3

Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart

Jason Fitzgerald and Brad Spielberger of Over the Cap also produced their version of the NFL trade value chart. They retroactively graded every draft selection from 2011 to 2015 following the conclusion of their rookie contract. They looked at the value of the contracts and the performances of players to produce their chart. Again, their chart is more of a reference for media and fans to approximate value, as NFL teams place their own values on these picks.

Doing so accounts for how teams grade the players in the current draft. For example, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft may not be worth what the No. 1 overall pick is worth in 2021 or 2023.

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The talent differences between those drafts cause their value to fluctuate. Teams set their own baselines, and then free market economics takes over until a value is agreed upon.

The Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart begins with a value of 3,000 for the No. 1 overall selection. It then drops to 2,649, 2,443, 2,297, and 2,184, respectively, through the first five selections. Here are the approximate values from the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart using the same selections as Johnson’s.

• First selection: 3,000
• 16th selection: 1,595
• 32nd selection: 1,244
• First pick of Round 3: 885
• First pick of Round 4: 661
• First pick of Round 5: 510
• First pick of Round 6: 377
• First pick of Round 7: 264

Harvard Trade Value Chart

Kevin Meers detailed another NFL trade value chart model in the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective. Meers used Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value Metric. After analyzing data from 1980 to 2005, Meers produced his own trade value chart. The Harvard trade value chart also does not contain data for compensatory selections.

The trade value chart begins with a value of 494.6 for the No. 1 overall selection. It then drops to 435.7, 401.3, 376.9, and 357.9, respectively, through the first five selections. Here are the approximate values from the Harvard chart using the same selections as with the Johnson chart.

• First selection: 494.6
• 16th selection: 259.2
• 32nd selection: 200.3
• First pick of Round 3: 128.0
• First pick of Round 4: 97.8
• First pick of Round 5: 75.6
• First pick of Round 6: 58.0
• First pick of Round 7: 43.5

How Do the Different NFL Trade Value Charts Differ When Valuing Trades?

To demonstrate how the value of a trade differs across each of the NFL value charts, let’s take a scenario where the Seahawks give up their entire draft to trade up to the No. 1 overall selection and draft Caleb Williams.

Using the Johnson trade chart, adjusted for compensatory selections, Seattle would give up 1,370.4 points of draft capital and receive 3,000 points of capital in return. The net gain of 1,629.6 equates to a selection between the No. 5 and No. 6 overall picks.

The value is slightly different in Hill’s chart. The Seahawks would give up 434 points of value to receive 1,000, a 566-point difference that equates to gaining a selection between the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks in the draft, though much closer to the 514-point value of the New England Patriots’ No. 3 overall selection.

Yet, the story is very different on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger value chart. According to the chart, Seattle would give up 4,546 points of value between its seven selections and get 3,000 in return with the No. 1 overall pick. That would result in a net gain of 1,546 points for the Bears, or the equivalent of between the No. 17 and No. 18 overall picks in the model.

On the Harvard chart, which does not vary year to year as it does not chart or factor in compensatory picks, Seattle’s picks in a draft with no compensatory picks would be Nos. 16, 81, 98, 114, 163, 176, and 207.

Those picks add up to a point value of exactly 699 on the Harvard chart, while the No. 1 pick is valued at 494.6 points. Thus, the Bears would gain 204.4 points within the trade, or the equivalent of between the No. 30 and No. 31 overall picks on the Harvard Chart.

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Of course, the main difference between all of these charts and NFL teams’ methods is how each franchise places different values on different picks depending on their evaluation of players.

Still, these trade value charts can prove to be useful tools in beginning to understand how teams value picks and approach trading them.

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