With only four games left to decide the landscape of the AFC playoffs, the Patriots are fighting for the number one seed. That would have sounded incredibly ambitious and unrealistic before the start of the season. Yet here they are, playing some of their most consistent football of the season while several teams around them begin to feel the weight of December.
Now, even if the Patriots win out, they need some help from other teams in the AFC. Specifically, the Denver Broncos. If both the Broncos and Patriots win out, Denver edges out New England with the tiebreaker.
When you line up the remaining schedules of the Patriots, Bills, Chargers, and Broncos, the gaps jump off the page.
New England Patriots: A Manageable Path
For the Patriots, the remaining stretch is competitive but far from unrealistic. Their win probability projections sit in a favorable range almost every week, except this upcoming Sunday.
According to PFSN Analytics, the Patriots have just under a 50% chance to beat Buffalo this week. For the remainder of their three games, they have over a 60% chance of winning the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins.
They still have to handle division opponents and a couple of physical fronts, but their overall Rest of Season Strength of Schedule comes in on the lighter side compared to the rest of the AFC field.
They have the 23rd-easiest strength of schedule remaining. If the Patriots can take care of business against Buffalo and lock up the AFC East, they can play with confidence with the rest of the three games.
Buffalo Bills: Uphill Climb
Buffalo’s margin for error is slimmer. The Bills close the season with one of the more challenging slates among AFC contenders. Along with playing the 11-win Patriots this week, they face the Philadelphia Eagles, who are battling for the NFC East title.
Along with the Eagles, the Bills will play the Browns and Jets, which should result in two victories for Josh Allen’s squad.
The AFC East is still in play for the Bills, but they need to beat the Patriots on Sunday and then have the Dolphins, Ravens, and Jets lose two games each, while Buffalo would have to win the rest of their games.
Los Angeles Chargers: Brutal Closing Stretch
The Chargers face arguably the most challenging remaining road of the four teams. A handful of their remaining games lean against them, and their Rest of Season Strength of Schedule ranks near the top of the league in difficulty.
Currently, the Chargers are not favored in any of their remaining games against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos. Justin Herbert got a gritty win against the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but they will need to string together some more impressive wins to fight for an AFC playoff spot.
Denver Broncos: Heavy Travel and Heavy Opponents
The Patriots’ only real competition for the number one seed is the Broncos. Since both teams are 11-2 and Denver owns the tiebreaker, the Broncos need to end their season with one more loss than the Patriots.
However, it is essential to note that the Broncos close with multiple playoff-caliber defenses and a few matchups that have historically given them problems. PFSN Playoff Metrics currently give the Broncos a 52.4% chance to win the AFC, which is the highest percent chance out of all the teams in the AFC.
The Bottom Line
The Patriots still have to win, and they are aware of this. But when you zoom out and look at what the rest of the AFC is dealing with, their position becomes much more manageable. Buffalo, Los Angeles, and Denver all face significantly steeper finishing stretches. New England’s schedule is not soft, but it is easier than the rest.
The Patriots have a realistic path to the number one seed, and the schedule gives them a real chance to stay in that chase all the way through Week 18.
