The New England Patriots (11-3) will return to the national spotlight on Sunday Night Football in a primetime Week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (7-7). With postseason seeding on the line for both teams, this game has significant implications as the regular season winds down.
Baltimore enters the week riding the momentum of its most complementary performance of the season. New England, meanwhile, is looking to respond after seeing a lengthy 10-game winning streak snapped last week.
The Patriots Will Win if Drake Maye Rebounds
For the first half of last week’s matchup against Buffalo, Drake Maye looked every bit like an MVP candidate. The second-year quarterback guided New England to a 21- 0 lead while operating efficiently as both a passer and runner. In the second half, though, the Patriots offense stalled and Maye struggled with accuracy and decision-making as Buffalo mounted its comeback.
That performance does not erase the larger body of work Maye has put together this season. He remains the engine of New England’s offense and continues to create stress on defenses with his mobility. Against a Baltimore defense that has improved in recent weeks but can still be vulnerable to quarterback movement, Maye will have opportunities to extend plays and attack downfield.
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New England also has reason for optimism in the running game. TreVeyon Henderson has emerged as a legitimate explosive threat over the past month, highlighted by long touchdown runs in back-to-back games. His ability to flip field position on limited touches adds an important counter to Baltimore’s physical defensive front.
If Maye plays with better rhythm and the Patriots avoid the self-inflicted mistakes that plagued them in the second half last week, New England has the offensive firepower to control this matchup.
The Patriots Lose if the Run Defense Continues to Slide
The biggest concern for New England entering this game is its recent regression against the run. Through the first half of the season, the Patriots were among the league’s most consistent run-stopping units. Over the past several weeks, that identity has slipped significantly.
Baltimore will look to take advantage with Derrick Henry, who rushed for 100 yards on just 11 carries last week against Cincinnati. While Henry has not been as dominant this season as in prior years, he remains capable of punishing defenses that struggle with gap discipline and tackling.
Lamar Jackson also presents a unique challenge. Although his rushing volume has declined this season, his efficiency as a passer improved last week, particularly on throws down the field. If Jackson is able to build on that performance and New England fails to tighten up defensively, the Patriots could find themselves in another high-scoring contest.
Baltimore’s urgency cannot be overlooked either. Sitting one game back in the AFC North and trailing in tiebreakers, the Ravens are in must-win territory. That desperation often shows up in physicality and aggressiveness, especially at home in primetime.
Patriots vs. Ravens Prediction
The Patriots are unlikely to suffer another defensive meltdown, and Maye has consistently responded well after adversity. With playoff positioning still within their control, I expect a focused performance from New England on Sunday night.
PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor shows New England firmly in control of its postseason outlook, giving the Patriots a 69.4% likelihood of capturing the AFC East and an overwhelming 99.9% probability of reaching the playoffs.
Patriots 28, Ravens 22
