The New England Patriots close the regular season Sunday at Gillette Stadium with plenty still on the line. New England has already clinched the AFC East, but a win over the Miami Dolphins, paired with a loss or tie by the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers, can secure the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye.
Miami is out of the playoff race, but the Dolphins have played spoiler in Foxborough before. Here are 5 key storylines to watch in Week 18.
1) Drake Maye’s Chase for a Historic Finish
Drake Maye enters the final week leading the NFL in completion percentage at 71.7 percent, with 4,203 passing yards and 30 touchdown passes. Maye is closing on the Patriots’ completion percentage record held by Tom Brady’s 2007 season.
The biggest question is usage. If the Patriots receive the necessary help elsewhere, the calculus changes quickly. But even if Maye plays a limited script, the Patriots can treat it as preparation for an offense that wants to carry rhythm into the postseason.​
2) The Patriots Health Balancing Act Just Got More Interesting
New England made two meaningful roster moves heading into Sunday, activating left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams from injured reserve.
Their returns improve protection and playoff depth, especially important against a Dolphins front that can still create disruption, but there may be rust or limited snaps as they work back from injury.
Meanwhile, as the lineup takes shape, the Patriots have already ruled out multiple contributors, including Jared Wilson, Khyiris Tonga, Harold Landry III, and Robert Spillane.Â
3) Miami’s Offense Hinges on Who Can Actually Suit Up
Miami’s skill group is the swing factor. De’Von Achane is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his availability, while Jaylen Waddle has been managing a rib issue heading into the weekend, raising questions about his effectiveness.
If Achane cannot go or is limited, it would alter the Dolphins’ offensive identity, especially since their most dangerous moments tend to come when Achane stresses defenses horizontally and then turns it vertical.
New England saw this firsthand in Week 2, when the Patriots held Achane in check as a runner but still had to deal with him as a receiver in space. If Miami’s top threats are compromised, the Patriots can tilt coverage and force a more methodical game.
4)Â First Real Look at Quinn Ewers, and What the Patriots Can Make Him Do
The Dolphins are starting rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers, and this will be New England’s first time facing the rookie quarterback. Ewers has shown flashes of poise, but he is still in the early stages of his development. If the Patriots can take away the first read and make him hold the ball, the matchup favors New England’s ability to create negative plays.
5) A Rare Dolphins Sweep, Plus the No. 1 Seed Path
New England has not swept Miami since the 2016 season, and the recent trend has leaned toward the Dolphins in this rivalry. That is why Sunday matters beyond seeding.
A sweep would be a statement that this Patriots group is not just winning games, but also flipping the divisional script as it heads into January. Currently, the Patriots can either finish as the No. 1 seed or the No. 2 seed. You can view the PFSN Playoff Predictor to see which matchups are likely.
