Can the Falcons Make a Miracle Run to the Playoffs?

The Atlanta Falcons have had a lackluster season thus far. There have been multiple games they could have won but ultimately lost. Losing close one after close one has been a theme for the Falcons this year, most notably against the New England Patriots in Week 9, where they lost 24-23, although many believed they should have won.

Mistakes such as clock management, third-down inefficiency, and special teams issues, including kicking, have cost them games. But here they are at 4-7, with a recent 24-10 win against their division rival, the New Orleans Saints. They’re third in the NFC South, and both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers lost their games this past week.

That prompts the question: Do the Falcons have a chance to win out and reach the playoffs? We’ll break down their schedule game by game.

Falcons Remaining Schedule

Atlanta will take on the New York Jets in Week 13, which should be a winnable game. The Jets are 2-9 and are one of the worst teams in the league statistically at this point in the year. They’ve had a quarterback carousel, and the defense isn’t what it once was, having recently traded former All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Colts, while defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is now part of the Dallas Cowboys’ defense. The Falcons should be able to win the game. PFSN analytics gives Atlanta a 55.3% chance to beat the Jets this week.

Up next, they face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14 at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and that will be a tough matchup. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown for 2,785 yards and 19 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, while wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 1,313 receiving yards on 80 catches with seven touchdowns. The Falcons’ secondary has been improving, but it will be difficult for them to stop Seattle’s offense. PFSN analytics gives the Falcons a 32.1% chance to win.

In Weeks 15 and 16, they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals. Tampa Bay recently lost to the Los Angeles Rams 34-7, but teams always gear up for division rivalries. If Atlanta can defeat them, it may help their division standings, as Tampa Bay beat them in Week 1. Arizona hasn’t had the best season, but Jacoby Brissett and company won’t go down without a fight. The Falcons must win both games.

PFSN analytics gives Atlanta a 46.6% chance to defeat Tampa Bay, a promising outlook considering the injuries the Falcons have managed this season. The model also projects a 52.4% chance for Atlanta to prevail against Arizona.

The final two games of the season are against the Los Angeles Rams, where PFSN assigns Atlanta a 31.1% chance to win, and the New Orleans Saints, where the Falcons’ probability rises to 59.2%.

READ MORE: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings: Eagles Fall After Loss to Cowboys, Steelers Tumble

The Rams have been on fire this season, with a 9-2 record and first place in the NFC West. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford may even win the MVP award, having thrown for 2,830 yards and 30 touchdowns to only two interceptions. Atlanta just beat the Saints, so they could do it again, but in the NFL, wins aren’t guaranteed.

Will The Falcons Make The Playoffs?

As noted above, the Falcons don’t have a very high likelihood of making the playoffs, but it is possible if they win out. Carolina swept them in their matchups, so the Panthers may end the season first in the division if Tampa Bay loses to Atlanta. It will be a tough road, but it’s doable.