It’s time to get ready for your NFL survivor pool picks in Week 2. Last week featured plenty of upsets. How should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Because “winging it” usually doesn’t get the job done. So let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Survivor Pool Week 2 Strategy
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Here’s my favorite pick, with context based on last week’s recommended picks.
Here’s the plain truth. Last week, I started two 18-week survivor tracks. Each week is designed to maximize the probability of reaching Week 18. It means taking some risks along the way. For example, I didn’t recommend the Colts over the Texans (thank goodness) because I’m eyeing Indianapolis at home against Jacksonville later this season or perhaps in a home rematch against the Texans in Week 18.
My two tracks featured (a) the Titans over the Giants and (b) the Ravens over the Jets. Tennessee blew a late lead and then missed a game-winning field goal. In addition to the Titans and Colts, some other heavy favorites that didn’t prevail included the 49ers, Bengals, and Rams. The Saints and Eagles nearly lost. It was a fascinating week.
With that in mind, one track is still alive. Let’s call it the “Ravens track,” because that sounds cooler than “the track that’s still going.” We could take the Bills at home against Tennessee, though it would be nice to keep Buffalo on standby. In Week 11, for example, they’ll play Cleveland at home. The only other seemingly “easy” game that week is New England vs. the Jets, but who knows what the Patriots will look like by then.
We might also take Denver against Houston. However, I have my sights set on Denver’s Week 8 matchup vs. the Jaguars, especially knowing the Cowboys (facing the Bears at home that week) are no longer a safe bet. The Rams also might be effective this week against the Falcons, though Atlanta just played New Orleans tough, and I want to see LA return to form before rolling with them in Week 6 or Week 13.
NFL Survivor Pool Pick: 49ers vs. Seahawks
San Francisco is nothing close to a safe pick. Elijah Mitchell is hurt. George Kittle is hurt (for now). Trey Lance was sub-par in Chicago over the weekend (though, in fairness, the weather conditions were rough). The Niners’ offense is transitioning. We should expect growing pains along the way.
However, Seattle’s situation is more precarious. They have a terrific starting RB who can’t stay healthy and two fantastic wideouts with a still-questionable QB. Yes, Geno Smith looked pretty good at home on Monday night. He also racked up 36% of his total passing yards on the first drive, before Denver’s D adjusted. Seattle’s defense isn’t good enough to win games. And we should see an even better Niners defense in Week 2.
I’m anticipating the Seahawks struggling to move the ball, leading to enough punts to help the 49ers win the field-position battle. Even if they’re not finding the end zone, Robbie Gould’s field-goal kicking might be all they need.
Again, we could go with a higher-probability option. But that would decrease our probability of going deep into the season. The 49ers have a complete team and a young QB who’s still acclimating. Talent-wise, they should be able to bury Seattle.
