As we approach Week 8, perfect entries in NFL survivor pools are rapidly thinning out. In order to make it another week, here are three teams that stand out as strong values to use this week.
All stats courtesy TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos (-9) vs. Carolina Panthers
You’d be in a pretty good spot if you simply bet against the Carolina Panthers every week, as long as you avoided the Las Vegas Raiders trap door. Coming off a 33-10 destruction of the New Orleans Saints, a home game against the 1-6 Panthers should produce similar results.
And yes, it’s scary to back a team with the sixth-worst offense by expected points added (EPA) per play this season. Certainly, the Denver Broncos could putz around on offense and allow the Panthers to remain competitive in this game. However, since an 0-2 start, Sean Payton has shown an increased willingness to take the game out of Bo Nix’s hands.
Since Week 3, the Broncos are running at the fifth-highest rate (52%) in one-score situations. Carolina is weak everywhere on defense and cannot stop the run (29th in rushing success rate).
So long as Denver sticks to the script it ran out against New Orleans, the Broncos’ run game and defense should be enough to cruise in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
Frankly, this section could just be a reminder that this game is on Monday night, which affords the opportunity to go against prime-time Daniel Jones.
You’re likely looking for more nuance than that, so consider that the Pittsburgh Steelers have the second-highest designed run rate this season, behind only the Baltimore Ravens.
The New York Giants, meanwhile, rank last in yards per rush allowed at 5.4.
Daniel Jones now has a career 1-14 record in primetime.
His primetime TD-INT ratio is 12-20.
He hasn’t throw a touchdown pass in MetLife Stadium since 2022. pic.twitter.com/NZwj9nmJJk
— Anthony Rivardo (@Anthony_Rivardo)
The Steelers should be able to play this game on their terms, minimizing Russell Wilson’s dropbacks. That would shield him from the Giants’ greatest strength, which is their pass rush led by Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns.
New York could also struggle to finish drives in this game. The Giants rank 29th in red-zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on only 42% of their drives inside the 20. The Steelers are the fourth-best red-zone defense, a strength-on-weakness matchup for Pittsburgh that should minimize any damage the Giants offense can inflict.
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs. New Orleans Saints
You’ll want to check the injury report for this one on the New Orleans Saints side. The Los Angeles Chargers will likely be favorites no matter what, but if Derek Carr returns, this is more of a stay-away with LA playing on a short week.
However, Carr doesn’t impact the Chargers’ biggest advantage in this game, which is on the ground. Los Angeles is a run-first team, with the seventh-highest designed run rate (49%) this season.
That hits at New Orleans’ biggest weakness, which is its 31st-ranked run defense by yards per carry (5.4). It’s been worse than that the last two weeks, as the Saints’ 502 rush yards surrendered against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Broncos are its most over a two-game span since 1980.
Dennis Allen has already said that Spencer Rattler will start if Carr remains out, which is great news for the Chargers. Among 49 quarterbacks to take 50+ dropbacks this season, here are the lowest EPA per dropback figures:
- Spencer Rattler: -0.43
- Bryce Young: -0.41
- Will Levis: -0.31
- Deshaun Watson: -0.25
As long as the fifth-round rookie is still starting for the Saints, the Chargers are a tremendous survivor pool option.
