We expected the showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills to be a great one in Week 10, and the two powerhouses didn’t disappoint. We were given the game of the year as the Vikings prevailed in a 33-30 battle. The road victory made it clear the Vikings are a legitimate 2023 Super Bowl contender.
We’re breaking down the latest 2023 Super Bowl odds in the aftermath of Week 10 and heading into Week 11. From the Vikings to the red-hot Miami Dolphins, let’s dive into the four blossoming Super Bowl contenders this week.
NFL Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 11
We’re here to make sure you’re locking in the best payoffs for all of your NFL betting picks. Each franchise has a varying record, but as you can see below, they don’t all offer the same betting odds.
For example, a $100 bet on the team with the best Super Bowl odds — Buffalo at +300 — would pay a $300 profit if they manage to win Super Bowl LVII. Let’s take a look at the latest 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds and break down the teams whose odds present the best value.
Minnesota Vikings (+1400)
The Vikings were justly questioned about not having a quality win all season long, but they answered the bell in Week 10. To not only beat the Bills but to do it in the most entertaining game of the year was a statement. The Vikings are for real and very much a Super Bowl threat in a weakened NFC.
This offense has repeatedly shown they have what it takes to perform against premier opponents. Their lone question mark is whether Kirk Cousins will perform in crunch time. His struggles in key moments throughout his career are something that has created unease about whether he can be trusted in pressure situations.
Otherwise, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook showed why they’re All-Pro candidates each year. Jefferson had the catch of the year in the waning moments of regulation and produced a career-high 193 receiving yards on 10 catches. Cook torched the Bills with an 81-yard touchdown run, totaling 119 yards on the day.
MORE: Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson Make Their Mark in 33–30 Win Over Buffalo Bills
My question for the Vikings is whether their defense has another gear or not. An injured Josh Allen still produced 414 total yards, and Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis combined for 221 of those. Patrick Peterson has been enjoying a great season and notched two interceptions on Allen, showing some promise that the secondary is ready for big matchups.
Otherwise, it was a positive game for the team’s two-leading sack artists, Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. Smith has 9.5 sacks and Hunter is at six on the season. If those two continue to wreak havoc and the veteran DB duo of Peterson and Harrison Smith play well, the Vikings will prove to be a valuable Super Bowl bet.
Miami Dolphins (+1800)
How about these Dolphins? At 7-3 and sitting in first place in the AFC East, Miami is trending upward each week.
This offense is thriving after trading for running back Jeff Wilson Jr. The Dolphins saved their most balanced performance of the season for their Week 10 matchup against Cleveland right before their bye week.
Tua Tagovailoa continues to be on an absolute tear, completing 25 of 32 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns. He became the second quarterback in NFL history with three straight games of 275 yards, three touchdown passes, and a passer rating of 135, joining Kurt Warner.
Tua is a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Dolphins continue to look like a higher-tier team whenever he plays.
I think Miami is undervalued in their Super Bowl odds. Sure, it’s fair to be concerned that Emmanuel Ogbah will miss the rest of the season, and Byron Jones still hasn’t played. But the Dolphins continue to rise to the occasion when Tua is on the field.
Their playmaking with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is rare, and Wilson’s 119-yard performance against the Browns showed his difference-making ability for an offense that has struggled with run consistency. Factor in Buffalo’s close-game struggles and Allen’s injury, and the Dolphins have at least a shot if they make the postseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1800)
The 2022 Buccaneers are the best example of a team that was so close to seeing their season crumble before them, but close wins have kept them relevant. At 5-5 and in first place in the shockingly interesting NFC South, the Buccaneers might be a sleeping giant.
Would it really surprise anyone if their two-game winning stream propels them to a big run into the playoffs?
Following their Week 11 bye week, Tampa should be favored against Cleveland, New Orleans, Arizona, Carolina, and Atlanta. Tougher games against San Francisco and Cincinnati are in mid-December, but this could be a 10-7 team in two months. Nobody wants to see Tom Brady coming to their stadium in January.
It’s hard to forget the shellacking Tampa Bay laid on Philadelphia in last season’s playoffs. The Buccaneers’ defense is excellent, allowing more than 21 points only twice all season. The offense is far from rolling but the insertion of Rachaad White at running back might be the difference that sparks the unit.
White played a career-high 64% of snaps in Week 10 as Leonard Fournette was banged up with a hip injury. I don’t think White lets go of the job, as he totaled 105 rushing yards on 22 carries. Already taking Fournette’s passing-down snaps before this week, White simply fits this offense better.
I won’t put much action on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl yet, but this is a good time to grab them with some value. Their 21-16 win against Seattle was desperately needed, and it may have revealed how the Buccaneers need to play in order to win with their decimated offensive line.
Green Bay Packers (+8000)
No team needed a win more in Week 10 than the Packers. After losing five straight games, the Packers were on the verge of being in real turmoil. Dropping to 3-7 with an enraged Aaron Rodgers would’ve been an unacceptable situation for the franchise considering their talent level.
The breakout of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson certainly came at a good time. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur finally worked to get Watson more targets than just deep balls, playing to his strengths as an athlete who can win in the open field. He responded with his first 100-yard game and three touchdowns.
MORE: Early NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Watson’s emergence is important since the Packers’ receiver room has been decimated by injuries. If Green Bay can continue expanding Watson’s usage and get Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs healthy, this offense has a shot of rebounding. It also helped to have Aaron Jones go off for 138 yards and a touchdown.
With huge games against Tennessee and Philadelphia looming, Green Bay will know where their season sits entering their Week 14 bye. I’m certainly not buying the Packers are real Super Bowl threats at 4-6, but it does appear they finally found solutions to their biggest offensive issues in Week 10.