Now that the NFL Schedule has been released, fantasy football managers are already looking ahead at matchups. Having otherwise high-end producers with difficult playoff schedules can be the difference between winning and losing. What fantasy players have the most difficult playoff schedules?
The Toughest Playoff Schedules For Fantasy Football Managers
Did you roster someone like Joe Mixon last year? If you did, you were thrilled at the 17.2 fantasy points per game he gave you. But you may not have won your league. Why? Playoff scheduling.
Mixon ran into two of the best run defenses in the NFL in Weeks 16 and 17. He didn’t score above 10.6 fantasy points in any of the three playoff weeks.
Of course, it is difficult to predict what will end up being a tough playoff schedule in May. The only thing we know for sure is that, if possible, we’d like to avoid having difficult matchups. Based on last year’s defensive metrics, what players appear likely to struggle in the fantasy playoffs?
Cleveland Browns (at CHI, vs. BUF, vs. PIT)
There aren’t exactly an abundance of top fantasy options on the Browns. Them having a tough playoff schedule isn’t the worst thing in the world. Someone has to do it. But these three matchups will present a challenge for the likes of Jerry Jeudy and possibly David Njoku.
Last season, the Bears were sixth in defensive pass EPA. The Bills were 25th — that matchup doesn’t project to be a problem. However, the Steelers were 12th. Two of the Browns’ three opponents ranked inside the top 12 in pass defensive EPA.
Detroit Lions (at LAR, vs. PIT, at MIN)
Similar to the Browns, one of their playoff opponents is not an issue. The Lions’ Week 15 matchup against the Rams is a recipe for fantasy goodness. But Weeks 16 and 17 present challenges.
We already established the Steelers were 12th in pass defense EPA. The Vikings were fifth.
This isn’t a reason to avoid Jared Goff or Amon-Ra St. Brown in fantasy drafts. Definitely draft Lions. They can and likely will overcome difficult matchups. But the matchups certainly could be better.
Green Bay Packers (at DEN, at CHI, vs. BAL)
This is a brutal stretch of games for the Packers from Weeks 15-17. Last season, the Broncos led the league in defensive pass EPA and were second in rush defense EPA. The Bears were sixth against the pass, while the Ravens were 11th in defensive pass EPA and seventh in rush defense EPA.
It’s bad enough if one of the rushing or passing game has a tough matchup. For the Packers, it’s both.
In the absence of a dominant receiver, fantasy managers should at least give some thought to it being Josh Jacobs or no one for drafting the Packers this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (at PHI, at HOU, vs. NYG)
The Raiders actually have a fair amount of fantasy weapons. They have a top five running back in Ashton Jeanty and the overall TE1 in Brock Bowers. Geno Smith is a viable QB2 and Jakobi Meyers is always solid. Unfortunately, this schedule is a problem.
Last season, the Eagles were one of the best defenses in the league. They were third in defensive pass EPA and first in defensive rush EPA. The Texans ranked eighth and fourth in those metrics, respectively.
If you can make it to the championship, the Giants were not an imposing foe at all. However, they vastly improved their defense this offseason. While they may not win many games or be an effective offense, teams may struggle to move the ball against what could be the most improved defense of the season.
I love Jeanty and think he’s worth taking in the first round, but fantasy managers could run into trouble in the most important weeks of the season.
New England Patriots (vs. BUF, at BAL, at NYJ)
I really like Drake Maye this year. He could be one of the best late-round QB options in fantasy. We could also see some PPR gold from Stefon Diggs, as well as a second-half explosion from TreVeyon Henderson. Unfortunately, they all may struggle in the fantasy playoffs.
Henderson may be alright as the primary receiving back. But if Rhamondre Stevenson still has the rushing role, he could struggle against a Bills defense that was third in rush defensive EPA last season. With the Ravens’ seventh, that’s two very tough weeks for the Patriots’ ground game.