The Minnesota Vikings got the worst possible news on Wednesday. First-round rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s meniscus surgery revealed a repair was required, meaning the Michigan product will miss the entire 2024 season.
Where do the Vikings go from here? Sam Darnold, already the heavy favorite to work as Minnesota’s QB1, is now locked in as the club’s starter — but he’s only on a one-year deal. How will the Vikings handle their quarterback situation heading into 2025?
What’s Next for Sam Darnold and the Vikings After J.J. McCarthy’s Injury?
McCarthy posted arguably the most impressive preseason debut among the NFL’s six 2024 first-round quarterbacks, completing 11 of 17 attempts for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception against the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday. McCarthy didn’t take any sacks despite pushing the ball downfield (10-yard average depth of target) and added 18 rushing yards for good measure.
However, he reported knee soreness after Minnesota’s preseason opener. Tests revealed a torn meniscus, which can either be trimmed or repaired. The former would have allowed McCarthy to return somewhat quickly. Instead, the 21-year-old needs a complete repair.
“He did undergo surgery actually this morning on that meniscus,” Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said Wednesday. ” … It was a successful procedure, but it did reveal that a repair was necessary, which will end J.J.’s 2025 season.”
Brutal end to #Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy's rookie season 😔 pic.twitter.com/vL2j6i7gTM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 14, 2024
The Vikings were leaning toward starting Darnold in Week 1, but McCarthy could have seen action during the 2024 season. Minnesota faces a gauntlet to open the year, with matchups against the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, and New York Jets before its Week 6 bye.
O’Connell may have felt pressured to turn to McCarthy if Darnold and the Vikings struggled during that opening stretch, but that compulsion will no longer be there. The remaining quarterbacks on Minnesota’s depth chart, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall, won’t be realistic threats to Darnold’s starting job.
Darnold managed a few standout performances with the Carolina Panthers in 2021 and 2022, but he’s been a disappointment since joining the New York Jets as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Since 2000, 51 quarterbacks have started at least 40 games over their first four NFL seasons, per TruMedia. Among that group, Darnold ranks 41st in interception rate, 42nd in sack rate, 44th in passing success rate, 47th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 48th in touchdown rate.
Still, it’s fair to wonder if Darnold can resurrect his career in an inviting Vikings offensive environment.
Justin Jefferson is the NFL’s best wideout, Jordan Addison posted 900+ receiving yards as a rookie, and tight end T.J. Hockenson (ACL, MCL recovery) could return by midseason. The Vikings boast a top-10 offensive line and a creative head coach/play-caller in O’Connell.
Darnold is still just 27 years old and hasn’t lost the physical talent that made him a top-three NFL draft pick. If he can harness that potential, Minnesota will offer him the best chance yet at pro success.
Will McCarthy Be the Vikings’ QB in 2025?
The Vikings reached a natural breaking point with veteran Kirk Cousins this offseason. O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah watched Cousins sign a four-year, $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons in March before grabbing McCarthy 10th overall in April’s draft.
Settling on a young quarterback — and reaping the benefits of a slotted rookie QB contract — remains one of the truest edges in NFL roster-building. McCarthy will still offer that financial advantage heading into 2025, but his season-ending injury undoubtedly complicates things for the Vikings entering next year.
McCarthy is set to miss an entire season of physical development. Though he can work on the mental side of the game while recovering, McCarthy won’t be able to take valuable practice or, eventually, in-game reps during the regular season in 2024.
Theoretically, turning things over to McCarthy in 2025 could be a breeze. He’d essentially be a de facto rookie. The Vikings surely would’ve wanted to get a longer look at him in 2024 before making him their QB1, but McCarthy probably showed enough during training camp and his first preseason start to make Minnesota’s decision-makers comfortable.
In a world where Darnold thrives as the Vikings’ starter in 2024, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell would be left with a good problem: two viable quarterbacks.
Remember, Darnold is on a one-year deal. If he throws, say, 25 touchdowns and ranks in the top half of the league in EPA per play and QBR, could Minnesota tag him next offseason?
Next year’s franchise tag is projected at roughly $42 million; the 2025 transition tag will probably be around $35 million. Would the Vikings take on that level of financial risk and then try to find a trade partner for Darnold?
Minnesota may have a myriad of questions to answer in 2025, depending on how the upcoming season plays out.
For now, Darnold is in a position to get his NFL career back on track.