With Week 1 of the 2022 NFL preseason upon us, what are our picks and predictions for all 16 games this week? Let’s take a look at this week’s betting odds and how we think the games will go, including our picks and predictions against the spread, based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 1 NFL preseason predictions and picks against the spread
Last week’s Hall of Fame Game featured a surprising (or not surprising, if he’s traded?) amount of work for Josh Jacobs and a breakout debut for Zamir White.
Week 1 is sure to feature plenty of surprises, making predictions a little tougher than typical in-season games. That said, based on the presence of rookies and depth-chart battles, we can assess the strong possibility of certain game scripts, which are more likely than not to lead to particular outcomes.
New York Giants (-2) at New England Patriots
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 11
- Start time: 7 p.m. ET
The Patriots have lost only three preseason games since Aug. 31, 2017. But two of those came against the Giants. While New York continues its chaotic march to 2023 and a likely massive offensive overhaul (at QB and RB), New England is eyeing a return to the playoffs with a stacked backfield and improved receiving corps.
This game is about depth and defense. We might see plenty from Giants rookies Wan’Dale Robinson and Daniel Bellinger. But assuming New York gives a ton of time to their backups, we have to give New England the advantage.
Tyquan Thornton and Pierre Strong Jr. could go toe-to-toe with their rookie counterparts, while Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson could see extra work as they dual for a starting role — or as the Patriots consider elevating Harris’s trade value ahead of a late-August swap, not unlike what they did last year with Sony Michel.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Giants 12
Tennessee Titans (+4) at Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 11
- Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Tennessee’s offense is a bit of a mess this preseason, with the team likely to play it safe with Derrick Henry, Robert Woods, and Treylon Burks, all of whom are coming off serious injuries. The prospect of Malik Willis earning several offensive series should cause more concern — not because he doesn’t have a bright NFL future, but because of camp reports that the rookie doesn’t look ready.
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The Ravens have a slightly more seasoned backup QB in Tyler Huntley and a deep backfield that might feature Justice Hill and Tyler Badie on Thursday night. Not a bad backup trio, all things considered. At his best, Hill could be a starter on some NFL teams, and Badie has potential as a weekly in-season contributor. With rookie TEs Nick Boyle and Isaiah Likely also in line for some work, the Ravens should win this one comfortably.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Titans 13
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Detroit Lions
- Date: Friday, Aug. 12
- Start time: 6 p.m. ET
How much will we see of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson? Probably not much, unless Atlanta somehow wants this to be a statement game (unlikely).
Instead, we’re anticipating a heaping spoonful of Tyler Allgeier and Desmond Ridder, as both make a case for starting jobs. Ridder’s more of a long shot, but a strong performance would put more pressure on Marcus Mariota to start the season strong.
Meanwhile, the Lions are loaded with reclamation projects and ascending stars. We could see a little more of Jared Goff than is necessary, but only to give him more in-game opportunities to gel with his playmakers, many of whom were hurt for multiple games last year. If Detroit gives their starters at least a couple of drives, this could end up being the most surprisingly lopsided outcome of the preseason.
Prediction: Lions 30, Falcons 10
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Friday, Aug. 12
- Start time: 7 p.m. ET
This is a tough one. Cleveland is a franchise in turmoil, and if Josh Rosen is thrown to the wolves (or rather, the relatively tamer jaguars), we might not see the Browns cross midfield. Their best hopes lies in the backfield, where D’Ernest Johnson and Jerome Ford offer some semblance of proficiency and upside.
Jacksonville is coming off a preseason game loss when almost nothing went right on offense. Rookie Snoop Conner and presumed QB backup Jake Luton underwhelmed, and one of their most experienced backups (Marvin Hall) lost a fumble.
Since this will be the Jaguars’ second August contest, we should expect more work from their starters. That’s great news for bettors, as it would be shocking if Jacksonville won by less than a touchdown.
Prediction: Jaguars 28, Browns 16
New York Jets (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Friday, Aug. 12
- Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
How much will we see from Gardner Minshew? That’s the biggest betting question heading into this one. In a game that probably won’t feature much of Zach Wilson or Jalen Hurts, Minshew is the wild card — a relatively experienced and capable quarterback continually fighting for a long-term NFL future.
The Jets will probably play this one fairly conservatively, as Breece Hall and Michael Carter jockey for their in-season roles. But we don’t see New York operating a semi-effective passing attack until at least next week.
Prediction: Eagles 19, Jets 13
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Friday, Aug. 12
- Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
If this were the regular season, what a matchup. Instead, we’re looking at Colt McCoy, Eno Benjamin, Keaontay Ingram, and perhaps a smattering of Rondale Moore. Antonio Wesley and Andy Isabella might also see the most run they’ll see all year. Altogether, it could be tough to watch this unit, which realistically could be held out of the end zone.
The Bengals aren’t exactly deeper, but their backup RBs are fascinating. Samaje Perine and Chris Evans are locked in a battle for the RB2 role behind Joe Mixon. Trayveon Williams is one of the league’s most experienced No. 4 RBs, and Brandon Allen is a fairly experienced backup QB. Cincinnati should move the ball enough to come out on top.
Prediction: Bengals 20, Cardinals 12
Green Bay Packers (+1) at San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Friday, Aug. 12
- Start time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers has attempted four passes in the last three preseasons. There are no good reasons for the Packers to break with tradition.
Jordan Love and perhaps Danny Etling should get the lion’s share of QB work, meaning no WR could crack 40 yards. However, there are enough positional battles and injuries to give guys like Patrick Taylor, Romeo Doubs, and Amari Rodgers plenty of work. The points won’t come easy, but those three might carry the load admirably.
The 49ers have one of the league’s deepest backfields, and Danny Gray could push for the WR4 job — if not the No. 3 — if things break perfectly for him. Even the thought of Trey Lance leading a couple of drives should be enough to bet on San Francisco.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Packers 17
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Chicago Bears
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Simply put, the Bears are in trouble, and the strong possibility that we won’t see Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, or Khalil Herbert makes them a major betting risk on Saturday.
Kansas City’s rookies — particularly Skyy Moore and Isaih Pacheco — should earn plenty of snaps, while the often underappreciated Ronald Jones battles for a regular-season role, if not an outright roster spot. The Chiefs should be favored in this one, not the Bears.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bears 10
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Washington Commanders
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
How much will we see from Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold? Against backups, both could get the job done. But if Matt Corral gets most of the work, it could be a long day at the office assuming Christian McCaffrey is bubble-wrapped and the offense leans heavily on the up-and-coming Terrace Marshall Jr.
For Washington, there is deserved excitement and trepidation surrounding a refurbished offense that includes Carson Wentz, Brian Robinson Jr., and Jahan Dotson. On paper, this team is good enough to finish with a winning record. I don’t see much conservatism heading into the preseason. Everyone needs time to get on the same page, and that could mean extra work for some of the veterans, including Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown.
Prediction: Commanders 22, Panthers 13
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) at Buffalo Bills
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 4 p.m. ET
On one side, a Nick Foles- led offense with Parris Campbell, Alec Pierce, and Jelani Woods. On the other, a Case Keenum-led offense with James Cook and Khalil Shakir. Okay, there will be other contributors, but this is a fascinating and hard-to-read contest featuring two teams that probably won’t throw too much into this opening game.
We shouldn’t be surprised if Phillip Lindsay and Ty’Son Williams lead all running backs in carries. We’re giving Indy a slight edge with more key players battling for starting roles.
Prediction: Colts 19, Bills 13
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 7 p.m. ET
Seattle can compete in this one if they’re trying to finalize their QB pecking order in the next 10-14 days. Drew Lock and Geno Smith might be bottom-10 starting QBs during the season, but they might be top 10 on Saturday.
Kenneth Walker III, DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, and D’Wayne Eskridge offer a fascinating mix of experienced contributors and promising rookies, while Bo Melton needs only one big play to show off his speed and put Seattle over the top.
The Steelers have a three-way battle for the starting QB role, so expect at least two (if not all three) to see work. The backfield behind Najee Harris remains up in the air, and rookies George Pickens and Calvin Austin III should get a decent amount of run. This could be one of Week 1’s highest-scoring contests. The Seahawks should cover.
Prediction: Steelers 29, Seahawks 27
Miami Dolphins (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Tua Tagovailoa has everything he needs to shine. But assuming this game features Teddy Bridgewater and perhaps Skylar Thompson, it could be a tough night for the offense. We might anticipate a lot of work out of the backfield as Miami’s jam-packed RB corps begins to thin.
Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are among the most experienced No. 4 and No. 5 RBs of the past decade, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. But when assessing preseason point spreads, it matters.
How much work will Tampa Bay’s starters earn? After what happened late last season, probably none. Rachaad White and Cade Otton are intriguing additions to a championship-caliber roster. We’ll know after this weekend whether White could challenge Leonard Fournette for a seemingly unlikely (but in reality, quite likely) timeshare.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Dolphins 16
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 8 p.m. ET
If the Saints roll with plenty of Andy Dalton, Abram Smith, Chris Olave, and Marquez Callaway, then we should expect a solid offensive evening. This team went from having one of the least-effective WR groups to a top-16 corps, and perhaps top 10 if Michael Thomas returns to form and Olave shines as expected. Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harty, and Kenny Stills are all fighting for backup roles, which is a good thing if you’re betting on New Orleans.
Meanwhile, Houston might play it safe with Davis Mills, unless they’re considering making a play for Jimmy Garoppolo. So much in this game depends on how much run Marlon Mack and Dameon Pierce earn versus Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale. And the ultra-thin receiving corps (behind Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins) could make this an RB-or-bust evening.
Prediction: Saints 20, Texans 16
Dallas Cowboys (+2) at Denver Broncos
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s keep this simple. Both teams have a large collection of exceptional playmakers and are eyeing a Super Bowl run. There are no good reasons for either squad to play any of their starters, especially after each lost a key receiver (Tim Patrick and James Washington). So in a battle between backups, we’ll put our money on Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdle, Dennis Houston, and Jake Ferguson over Denver’s healthy second team.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Broncos 14
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 13
- Start time: 10 p.m. ET
See above: “Cowboys at Broncos.” Both LA teams are hungry for a deep playoff run. The Rams are good enough to win back-to-back titles, and the Chargers are good enough to face them if they can get through the fierce AFC West.
Longtime preseason god Chase Daniel, along with Isaiah Spiller and Jalen Guyton, should push the Chargers over the top, assuming the Rams rest every startable playmaker except, perhaps, the underrated Tutu Atwell.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Rams 10
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 14
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Minnesota’s first preseason contest should be fairly muted. Dalvin Cook is an annual higher-than-normal injury risk, Alexander Mattison is a premier RB handcuff, Adam Thielen is coming off an injury-plagued season, and Irv Smith Jr. hasn’t seen the field in over 19 months.
We’re excited to see what Ty Chandler and Jalen Nailor can do. Unfortunately, Kellen Mond and Sean Mannion might have trouble moving the ball.
The Raiders have the advantage heading into preseason game No. 2. We could see more work from Jacobs and White, along with other backfield contributors. We might even get a glimpse of Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and/or Darren Waller. Minnesota doesn’t have much of a chance.
Prediction: Raiders 28, Vikings 13
