NFL Predictions Against the Spread Week 14: Can Bills upset the Steelers?

As the 2020 NFL season winds down towards its conclusion, every win can make the difference. Will your team be playing or watching from home in January? Which teams can take a step closer to booking their playoff place this week? Can the Buffalo Bills spring a surprise by ending the Pittsburgh Steelers’ unbeaten run? Let’s take a look with our NFL Week 14 predictions against the spread.

NFL Week 14 predictions against the spread

All spread lines are provided by DraftKings and were correct at the time of writing. They are, of course, subject to change the closer we get to kickoff.

Thursday, December 10th, 8:20 PM ET

New England Patriots (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

The New England Patriots produced their best defensive performance of the season in shutting out the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. It was a timely performance as they prepare for a rematch of the most defensive Super Bowl in recent memory.

The Los Angeles Rams were also defensively dominant in Week 13. They are perfectly equipped to deal with the Patriots’ offense as they have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. That should be the difference-maker against a Cam Newton-led Patriots offense that is at its best when running the ball down the opposition’s throat.

NFL predictions against the spread for Thursday Night Football: The Rams win but fail to cover the spread.

Final score prediction: New England Patriots 14 Los Angeles Rams 18

Sunday, December 13th, 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears (+1.5)

Both teams come into this game on the back of close divisional losses in Week 13. The Chicago Bears managed to get their ground game going against the Detroit Lions. That should give them confidence against a Houston Texans team that has been one of the worst in the NFL against the run.

With Deshaun Watson, the Texans have a clear advantage in the passing game. However, the Bears’ pass defense has been impressive at times this year. As a result, they could be in a position to pull off their first win since Week 6.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 matchup: The Bears win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Houston Texans 21 Chicago Bears 24

Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals

Can Andy Dalton deliver a win for the Dallas Cowboys as he returns to his former home? Can the Cincinnati Bengals offense take advantage of an abysmal Cowboys defense?

The former seems far more likely than the latter. The Bengals have managed less than 200 total yards of offense in their last two games without Joe Burrow. Although the Cowboys are a far less potent opponent without Dak Prescott, they still have a wide receiver trio in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup that are a handful for any defense to handle. The Bengals’ best hope of a surprise win will be if the Cowboys struggle with a significantly shortened week.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 game: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Dallas Cowboys 23 Cincinnati Bengals 18

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa took back the keys to the Miami Dolphins offense from Ryan Fitzpatrick and drove the team to a win in Week 13. However, the Dolphins’ defense has been the strength of the team this season. They will face their toughest test of the year against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense in Week 14.

The Dolphins may have outperformed expectation in 2020, but the Chiefs’ offense is virtually unstoppable. With an improved defense, you could argue they’re better than last year’s Super Bowl-winning team.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 showdown: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 30 Miami Dolphins 23

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ New York Giants (+2.5)

After beating the Seattle Seahawks last week, are the New York Giants the team to beat in the NFC East? Can they win back to back games against the NFC West? How will the Arizona Cardinals respond to their Week 13 loss?

Theoretically, the same game plan that stymied the Seattle offense could work for the Giants against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are similar quarterbacks, and the Cardinals and Seahawks both like to get the ball moving on the ground. That plays perfectly into the strength of the Giants’ defense.

With the Cardinals on a losing streak and the Giants winning their last four, it is difficult to bet against Big Blue.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 showdown: The Giants win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Arizona Cardinals 19 New York Giants 21

Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Minnesota Vikings kept themselves in the race for the NFC wild-card spot in Week 13. It took overtime for them to beat a poor Jacksonville Jaguars team, however, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers represent a tougher challenge.

Tom Brady and the Bucs have had the bye week to stew on their humiliation at the hands of Tyreek Hill. They need to return to winning ways to try and book their place in the post-season. The Vikings’ defense has been awful in the passing game, and as such, the Bucs should have the advantage in a high-scoring game.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 clash: Tampa Bay wins and covers the spread.

Final score prediction: Minnesota Vikings 28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

With both teams on four wins, the only thing the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers are playing for is their position in the 2021 NFL Draft. Currently, the Panthers are scheduled to pick seventh, with the Broncos set to pick 12th.

That being said, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater may well be playing for his job. With a week of rest, he should have wide receiver DJ Moore available, which will have a significant impact on the Panthers’ offense. Although this game should be close, I think the Panthers have the edge, especially with the play of rookie Jeremy Chinn on defense.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 game: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Denver Broncos 21 Carolina Panthers 23

Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)

Two teams at opposite ends of the AFC South go to battle in a rematch of their Week 2 clash. Despite a fourth quarterback comeback attempt from Gardner Minshew, the Jacksonville Jaguars fell to a 33-30 defeat. They haven’t won since, resulting in the departure of general manager David Caldwell.

Although the Jaguars kept Derrick Henry relatively quiet in Week 2, they have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season. As such, the Tennessee Titans can be expected to lean on the ground game. Although the Titans’ defense was torched by the Cleveland Browns in Week 13, they should be good enough to withstand a Mike Glennon-led offense.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 AFC South clash: The Titans win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Tennessee Titans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Sunday, December 13th, 4:05 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)

The result of this game could have huge implications for the NFL post-season. The Las Vegas Raiders are still in contention for a wild-card spot, and the Indianapolis Colts are still in the race for the AFC South title.

The Raiders were just one play away from being the first team to lose to the New York Jets in 2020. As such, the Colts should be considered a big favorite. Even before that game, the Raiders had given up the sixth-most passing yards in the league as they’ve struggled to take down the quarterback. Phillip Rivers should be able to make plays and deliver the Colts their ninth win of the year.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 game: The Colts win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Indianapolis Colts 28 Las Vegas Raiders 24

New York Jets (+13.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

These two teams almost provided the two biggest shocks of Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season. The New York Jets were seconds from their first win of the year, while the Seattle Seahawks suffered their own New York nightmare with a loss to the Giants.

Thankfully for Seahawks fans, there shouldn’t be a repeat in Week 14. Although the Jets and quarterback Sam Darnold put up 28 points against the Las Vegas Raiders, they are still averaging the least points per game in the NFL. Russell Wilson should easily outscore the Jets’ offense as he goes up against a defense that allows nearly 300 yards per game.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 game: The Seahawks win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: New York Jets 17 Seattle Seahawks 31

Sunday, December 13th, 4:25 PM ET

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Detroit Lions (+7.5)

The Green Bay Packers were big winners when these two NFC North rivals met back in Week 2. Although the Detroit Lions got their first win under interim head coach Darrell Bevell in Week 13, only a fool would bet against a Packers win in Week 14.

Aaron Jones was the driving force behind the 42-21 win in Week 2. He should feature prominently against a rushing defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. The Lions haven’t been much better in the passing game either. Davante Adams should add another touchdown to his season tally as a result of that poor defense.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 rivalry game: The Packers win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 24

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5)

Taysom Hill went undefeated in his three-game stretch as the New Orleans Saints starter, but Drew Brees is scheduled to return in Week 14. Despite Brees approaching the end of his career, his return provides an offensive boost as the Saints look to secure the number one seed in the NFC with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles looked better, with Jalen Hurts running the offense in relief of Carson Wentz during the second half against the Green Bay Packers. However, even the rookie’s influence on the offense won’t be enough to overcome one of the NFL’s best defenses.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 clash: The Saints win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: New Orleans Saints 30 Philadelphia Eagles 21

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)

After being shell-shocked by the New England Patriots, Justin Herbert gets the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards per game. They also have one of the lowest interception percentages in the NFL.

The Falcons have been poor in the passing game, which has been the strength of the Los Angeles Chargers defense. For Atlanta to win, they would need to attack the Chargers on the ground, and they are only averaging 103.5 rushing yards per game.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 clash: The Chargers win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Atlanta Falcons 24 Los Angeles Chargers 27

Washington Football Team @ San Francisco 49ers

The Alex Smith comeback story gets itself another chapter as he faces the San Francisco 49ers, his first NFL team. Although the Washington Football Team have doubled their win total over the last three weeks, the 49ers will be a heavy favorite to get the win and put a dampener on the Smith fairytale.

Both teams are very strong defensively, but the 49ers have a slight advantage in the running game. If they can contain Antonio Gibson, they should be able to escape with a narrow victory as they try to keep in touch with the rest of the NFC West.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 matchup: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Washington Football Team 21 San Francisco 49ers 23

Sunday, December 13th, 8:20 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Both teams are yet to play in Week 12 at the time of writing, but it’s safe to presume that the Pittsburgh Steelers are still unbeaten as they prepare to face one of their potential challengers to the AFC Championship. Can the Buffalo Bills end the Steelers’ dreams of a perfect season on Sunday Night Football?

Unfortunately for the Bills, probably not. Their offense primarily goes through the passing game with Josh Allen, and the Steelers have allowed the least passing yards per game in the NFL. Although the Steelers rushing offense hasn’t been electric, they should take advantage of a poor Bills rush defense with a rotation in the backfield.

NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 14 Sunday Night Football: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Buffalo Bills 23

Monday, December 14th, 8:15 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Lamar Jackson returns as the Baltimore Ravens try to break a losing streak dating back to their defeat to the New England Patriots. By contrast, the Cleveland Browns have won their last four. Cleveland will be looking to avenge their Week 1 walkover loss to the Ravens in this AFC North rivalry.

Despite the loss, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 132 rushing yards and have developed into the best running back duo in the NFL. The Ravens are more susceptible to the ground game than the passing game. Even if they do contain the run, Baker Mayfield had his best game of the season last week and could build on that.

NFL predictions against the spread for Week 14 Monday Night Football: No spread at the time of writing.

Final score prediction: Baltimore Ravens 21 Cleveland Browns 24

If sports betting is your thing, and we urge you to gamble responsibly, check out the “Against the Spread” podcast.

Oliver Hodgkinson is an NFL Draft and NFL analytics contributor for the Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @ojhodgkinson.

Oliver Hodgkinson is an NFL Draft and College Football Analyst for Pro Football Network. Check out the rest of his work here, and you can find him on Twitter @ojhodgkinson.

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