The Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals kicked off NFL Week 11 on Thursday Night Football, with Pete Carroll’s team seizing the NFC West initiative in a 28-21 victory. The rest of the NFL Week 11 slate is action-packed with incredible matchups and storylines. Can the Indianapolis Colts trample the Green Bay Packers? How will the Baltimore Ravens bounce back in their tussle with the Tennessee Titans? Will the Kansas City Chiefs gain revenge over the Las Vegas Raiders? Our NFL predictions against the spread for Week 11 contains the scripts to these storylines.[sv slug=mocksim]
NFL predictions against the spread, Week 11
All spread lines are provided by DraftKings and were correct at the time of writing. They are, of course, subject to change the closer we get to kickoff.
Thursday, November 19, 8:20 pm ET
Before we get to the rest of the NFL Week 11 slate, let’s look at how Thursday Night Football played out.
Arizona Cardinals 21 Seattle Seahawks 28
The Seahawks dragged the Cardinals back down to earth with a bang with a win in Thursday Night Football. Seattle suffocated the Arizona ground game, held DeAndre Hopkins to just 51 yards, and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett secured a touchdown apiece in a game that saw nearly two hundred yards of penalty yardage.
In my original prediction for this game – Arizona Cardinals 31 Seahawks 28 – I stated that the Seahawks terrible defense would give Russell Wilson too much to do to keep Seattle in the game but they came to play on Thursday Night. Carlos Dunlap sacked Kyler Murray twice and the Cardinals averaged just 3.2 yards on the ground.
The Seahawks move to 7-3 and now have an extended rest before their Week 12 trip to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Philadelphia Eagles.
Sunday, November 22, 1:00 pm ET
New England Patriots (-2.0) @ Houston Texans (+2.0)
At the end of the 2019 NFL season, the New England Patriots and Houston Texans sat atop their respective divisions. Fast forward some 11 months and the situation is very different for both franchises. The Texans come into this game at 2-7, with the Patriots surprise win over the Baltimore Ravens seeing them move to 4-5.
Last time the two teams met, Deshaun Watson threw for three touchdowns and caught a six-yard touchdown as the Texans won 28-22. The Patriots have morphed into a run-first offense with a backfield by committee. Cam Newton is bringing a more athletic presence than Tom Brady ever did, and the Texans have allowed more running yards per game than any team in the 2020 NFL season.
The Texans’ ability, or inability, to stop the run will decide the game.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 clash: The Patriots sneak a win with a push on the spread.
Final score prediction: New England Patriots 26 Houston Texans 24
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
The two teams come into this game with contrasting results from disappointing performances. The Cleveland Browns are at 6-3 after a narrow win over the Houston Texans, whereas the Philadelphia Eagles’ defeat to the New York Giants leaves them at an embarrassing 3-5-1.
Nick Chubb returned to action for the Browns, rumbling to 126 yards and a touchdown, and he should find plenty of success against an Eagles run defense that has allowed over 130 yards per game. The Browns defense has been torched through the air so far in 2020. Unfortunately, the Eagles haven’t shown anything in this 2020 NFL season that makes you think they can take advantage of that.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 matchup: The Browns cruise to a victory and cover the spread.
Final score prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 18 Cleveland Browns 26
Atlanta Falcons (+4.0) @ New Orleans Saints (-4.0)
The New Orleans Saints will be without Drew Brees for this divisional rivalry after their star quarterback suffered broken ribs and a punctured lung in their win over the San Francisco 49ers. When Brees went out of the game it was Jameis Winston rather than Taysom Hill that stepped in to replace him. However, Adam Schefter reported on Friday that it will be Hill and not Winston that starts against the Falcons.
It seems a curious decision despite Sean Payton’s infatuation with the former BYU quarterback. Winston has a history of success against the Falcons and with the Falcons’ porous pass defense it would have been advantageous to have Winston dominate through the air. Hill has a career-long pass of 44 yards from 2018 and will obviously provide some interesting wrinkles in the ground game and you can expect a big game out of Alvin Kamara, injury permitting.
NFL predictions against the spread for this NFC South showdown: It’s extremely difficult to predict this game, and a lot hinges on the fitness of Kamara. With him healthy all game, I think the Saints still sneak a win but fail to cover the spread. Without, it could be a shock win for the Falcons.
Final score prediction: Atlanta Falcons 31 New Orleans Saints 34
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.0) @ Washington Football Team (-1.0)
Although the Washington Football Team defense allowed 276 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in their defeat to the Detroit Lions, they still have one of the best pass defenses in the league as they take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The matchup sees the first and second picks of the 2020 NFL Draft face off against each other.
Not only has the Washington defense allowed the fewest yards per game through the air, but they also had the fourth-most sacks in the NFL prior to Week 10. That will be particularly concerning for a Bengals offensive line that has been sub-optimal at best, downright atrocious at worst.
Alex Smith offers Washington their best passing threat at the quarterback position, but feeding running back Antonio Gibson will give them the best chance of victory against a Bengals run defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the 2020 NFL season.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 game: Washington wins a tight one with a push on the spread.
Final score prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 23 Washington Football Team 24
Detroit Lions (-2.0) @ Carolina Panthers (+2.0)
The 4-5 Detroit Lions travel to Charlotte to face a Carolina Panthers team that bore the brunt of a Tom Brady backlash last time out. Both teams are staring down the barrel of a losing season, although the Lions seem in a more desperate situation than the Panthers despite their better record.
Christian McCaffrey is out once again for the Panthers in a matchup that Carolina should dominate on the ground. The Lions have allowed an overage of 140.1 rushing yards per game. The Panthers’ defense had problems of their own against Tampa Bay, allowing 192 rushing yards to Ronald Jones and 341 passing yards from Brady. In a game where the defense will be the difference-maker, the Panthers should edge what will be a close game.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 clash in Carolina: The Panthers get the win and cover the spread.
Final score prediction: Detroit Lions 24 Carolina Panthers 27
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.0)
Will 2020 see the first perfect NFL season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the combination of suffocating defense and offensive firepower that could see them match that feat. Can the Jacksonville Jaguars be the team to stop the Steelers juggernaut?
Despite playing the Green Bay Packers surprisingly close last week, the answer is a resounding no. Their best offensive player so far in 2020 is running back James Robinson, and that plays straight into the strength of the Steelers defense. The Jaguars passing defense is one of the worst in the league, and they face a Pittsburgh offense that had their way with the Cincinnati Bengals secondary last time out.
Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Chase Claypool. Pick your poison as the Steelers secure their 10th win.
NFL predictions against the spread as the Steelers continue their quest for perfection in Week 11: The Steelers continue their quest for perfection and easily cover the spread.
Final score prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 33 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Tennessee Titans (+5.0) @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.0)
Two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL meet as the Tennessee Titans look to bounce back from their Thursday Night Football defeat to the Colts against a Lamar Jackson led Baltimore Ravens that slipped to a surprise defeat to New England. The two are tied 12-12 in the head to head, with the Titans winning the most recent matchup, last year’s AFC Divisional Round clash.
The Ravens have been better defensively than the Titans this season, and that will be the key to them emerging with a close victory. They are allowing 20 rushing yards less than the Titans per game, 54 passing yards less, and have allowed seven less total touchdowns. Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 195 yards last time the two teams met, and you would like to think the Ravens will be better prepared for that threat this time around, although they struggled to contain Damien Harris in the Sunday Night Football game in Week 10.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 battle: The Ravens win but fail to cover the spread.
Final score prediction: Tennessee Titans 23 Baltimore Ravens 27
Sunday November 22, 4:05pm ET
Miami Dolphins (-3.0) @ Denver Broncos (+3.0)
In amongst all the hype over Tua Tagovailoa, it’s worth remembering that the Miami Dolphins defense has been one of the best units in the NFL through the first 10 weeks. They get the opportunity to rack up the seventh win of the season against a Denver Broncos team that still doesn’t really know what it has under center in Drew Lock.
The Broncos have been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL this season and rank near the bottom of the league for passing yards per game. Their run game is hardly setting the NFL on fire either. I expect them to struggle to move the ball on the Dolphins defense, with the Miami offense having too much on offense for a defense that has desperately missed Von Miller.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 Mile High matchup: The Dolphins continue their winning ways, covering the spread in the process.
Final score prediction: Miami Dolphins 27 Denver Broncos 21
New York Jets (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
This game really doesn’t need much analysis. The New York Jets come off the bye week to continue their collision course with the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. They’ve been ineffective on both sides of the ball, and that’s probably being a little too kind.
The Chargers were far from effective offensively in their defeat to the Miami Dolphins, but they should comfortably bounce back against the worst team in this 2020 NFL season.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 clash: Los Angeles wins and covers the spread.
Final score prediction: New York Jets 14 Los Angeles Chargers 28
Sunday, November 22, 4:25 pm ET
Green Bay Packers (+1.0) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.0)
Aaron Rodgers faces Philip Rivers in a battle of the veteran NFL quarterbacks, but which one comes out on top?
The Green Bay Packers were nowhere near as dominant against the Jacksonville Jaguars as I was expecting, and now they face what is arguably the most complete defense in the NFL. Although the Indianapolis Colts offense lacks the potency of the Packers, there is a matchup that could give them the edge. The Packers have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the running back position in the NFL prior to Week 10, and the Colts averaged 10 yards per reception from their running backs in their Thursday Night Football win over the Titans.
Nyheim Hines will be the player to watch as the Colts sneak their seventh win of the season.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 veteran QB collision: The Colts get the win and cover the spread,
Finals score prediction: Green Bay Packers 24 Indianapolis Colts 27
Dallas Cowboys (+7.0) @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.0)
If Dak Prescott was the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, this game could have a very different outlook. The Minnesota Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and Prescott had been racking up passing yards prior to his injury. The Cowboys offense isn’t remotely the same beast without him, whether it’s Andy Dalton, Garrett Gilbert, or Ben DiNucci under center.
What we will actually see in this Week 11 clash is Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook brutalizing a Cowboys run defense that had allowed the second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The Vikings have yet to play on Monday Night Football at the time of writing, but Cook already has four 100+ yard games for the season.
NFL predictions against the spread for this Week 11 clash: The Vikings win big and effortlessly cover the spread.
Final score predictions: Dallas Cowboys 18 Minnesota Vikings 30
Sunday, November 22, 8:20 pm ET
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.0)
The last time these two teams met, the Las Vegas Raiders went into Arrowhead Stadium and handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first defeat of the season with a 40-32 win. Can the Raiders do it again, or will the Chiefs gain revenge and increase their advantage in the AFC West?
Josh Jacobs rushed for two touchdowns in the first game, and shutting him down will be essential if the Chiefs want to emerge from Sunday Night Football with the victory. The Kansas City run defense has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, while playing well against the pass. The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, and Patrick Mahomes should be able to orchestrate the win that alluded the Chiefs earlier in the year.
NFL predictions against the spread for Week 11 Sunday Night Football: The Chiefs get their revenge with a push on the spread.
Final score predictions: Kansas City Chiefs 35 Las Vegas Raiders 28
Monday, November 23, 8:15 pm ET
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
One of the highest-scoring offenses in the 2020 NFL season collides with one of the league’s stingiest defenses as the Los Angeles Rams travel to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Monday Night Football. The last time that Tom Brady and Jared Goff stepped onto the same field was at Super Bowl LIII, where Brady emerged victorious.
Tampa Bay made some changes to the offensive line after the heavy defeat to the New Orleans Saints, and they paid dividends in the win over the Carolina Panthers. Brady took just one sack, and the running game found its groove. That offensive line will be critical to the Buccaneers’ chance of victory as they face Aaron Donald.
The two teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides of the ball, and Tampa Bay should sneak a win in a very close fought game.
NFL predictions against the spread for Week 11 Monday Night Football: Tampa Bay wins but fails to cover the spread in a tight game.
Final score predictions: Los Angeles Rams 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
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Oliver Hodgkinson is an NFL Draft and NFL analytics contributor for the Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @ojhodgkinson.