Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season has come and gone. The Philadelphia Eagles clinched a playoff spot, the Chicago Bears came from behind to topple the Green Bay Packers, and the Carolina Panthers gained some leverage in the NFC South with their victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
These games, among others, led to movement in our PFSN power rankings this week compared to last. Here’s how the NFL is shaping up entering Week 17, according to our metrics system.
Please note that these rankings are decided entirely by PFSN’s analytical model, rather than the author’s opinion of the teams.
32) Las Vegas Raiders
- Last Week’s Ranking: 32
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 31.6%
With a 2-13 record coming out of Week 16, the Las Vegas Raiders remain one of the NFL’s bottom-feeders. They kept things close against a talented Texans team on Sunday, though, and Ashton Jeanty exploded to the tune of 188 scrimmage yards and two total touchdowns in a narrow 23-21 loss.
Ashton Jeanty (10)
Las Vegas Raiders
51 yards
pic.twitter.com/CSzduOlX6q— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) December 22, 2025
It’s been a rough season for the Raiders, but seeing Jeanty look like the superstar running back he was at Boise State is a welcome silver lining for the organization and its fan base. They remain in firm competition for the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
31) New York Jets
- Last Week’s Ranking: 30
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 4.9%
The New York Jets drop a spot in PFSN’s NFL power rankings going into Week 17. Their 29-6 loss to the Saints sees their record fall to 3-12, marking their third consecutive loss. It’s tough to string together a winning streak when you’re down to your third-string quarterback like New York is, but it’s still been an uninspiring stretch of games.
Perhaps the craziest thing about the Jets’ 2025 season is that they haven’t tallied a single interception on defense through 15 games. That’s the longest streak without a pick in NFL history, and as Ari Meirov pointed out, they’re only two games away from being the first team to ever complete a full season without a single interception forced.
30) Cleveland Browns
- Last Week’s Ranking: 29
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 11.5%
There was some encouraging play from the Cleveland Browns in their home matchup against the Bills on Sunday, but they were unable to pick up the win in a 23-20 loss. The loss marked their fourth loss in a row as they slide further down the NFL league-wide standings.
A compilation of #Browns QB Shedeur Sanders from today’s game against the Bills: pic.twitter.com/jxG5fUjOS9
— Camryn Justice (@camijustice) December 22, 2025
Losing rookie running back Quinshon Judkins is a significant loss for a Browns offense that’s struggled to generate big plays as it is. The hope for the rest of the year is that Myles Garrett breaks the NFL’s single-season sack record and that they see encouraging growth from Shedeur Sanders in their final two games.
29) New York Giants
- Last Week’s Ranking: 27
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 36.0%
It’s hard to win games in the NFL when your offense finishes with only 13 net passing yards. That’s the unenviable situation the New York Giants found themselves in on Sunday, as the Vikings totally nullified their passing attack in a 16-13 loss that saw the Giants fall to 2-13 for the year.
This was easily Jaxson Dart’s worst single-game performance since entering the NFL. He’s been solid for most of his rookie year, but though the Giants’ defense showed up in a big way against Minnesota, poor passing and a lackluster offensive line doomed New York from the very start.
28) Tennessee Titans
- Last Week’s Ranking: 31
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 14.8%
Nobody’s going to mistake the Tennessee Titans for the next team up in the AFC. Even without Patrick Mahomes, though, they defeated the Chiefs on Sunday by an emphatic 26-9 margin, picking up their third win of the year in an encouraging late-season performance.
Most notably, Cam Ward achieved his career-high passer rating of 122.3. This marks the second game in a row that the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft has reached triple digits in his passer rating, which demonstrates encouraging growth amidst a lackluster season from the Titans.
27) Arizona Cardinals
- Last Week’s Ranking: 25
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Chance for 1st overall pick: 0.8%
It’s been a season to forget for the Arizona Cardinals, and that trend continued in Week 16. Their 26-19 loss to the Falcons gives them a seven-game losing streak, after already going on a five-game losing streak earlier in the year. They’re now at 3-12 in the 2025 NFL season.
The Cardinals are now 2-8 in one-score games, which speaks to their struggles with closing out when it matters most. There’s talent on the roster that’s not being properly utilized, which could place head coach Jonathan Gannon’s job security in doubt as the regular season winds down.
26) Miami Dolphins
- Last Week’s Ranking: 21
- Eliminated from playoff contention
Quinn Ewers made his first NFL start on Sunday, taking over Tua Tagovailoa’s role as the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback against the Bengals. It wasn’t a pretty outing, though, as Ewers threw for 260 yards but had no touchdowns and two interceptions. Miami’s defense also struggled in a 45-21 blowout loss to Cincinnati.
After a four-game winning streak a few weeks ago, the Dolphins have dropped two in a row since being eliminated from the NFL playoff race. This is clearly a better team when Tagovailoa is at quarterback. Still, his limited ceiling as a franchise quarterback means Miami is likely to go in a different direction for the future.
25) Washington Commanders
- Last Week’s Ranking: 24
- Eliminated from playoff contention
They deserve credit for keeping the game close for three quarters, but the Washington Commanders didn’t stand much of a chance of beating the Eagles with how their season has gone. Marcus Mariota suffered a mid-game hand injury, sending third-string veteran Josh Johnson in at quarterback, and it went about as well as expected.
With nine losses in their last ten games, it’s been a nightmare of a year for the Commanders in 2025. In an ideal world, they get out of this season without any further damage, with time to get their key contributors healthy and ready to bounce back in 2026.
24) New Orleans Saints
- Last Week’s Ranking: 28
- Eliminated from playoff contention
It’s remarkable to think that their season looked so poor as recently as the end of November, but the New Orleans Saints’ play in December has sparked considerable long-term optimism for the franchise. They defeated the Jets by a 29-6 margin on Sunday, securing their third consecutive victory.
10 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns for Chris Olave today, setting or tying his career-highs in all three categories, in the New Orleans Saints’ win over the New York Jets. pic.twitter.com/eVDT6bq9U8
— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) December 21, 2025
Tyler Shough has turned a corner in recent weeks, and that high level of play continued in Week 16. He finished the game with 308 passing yards and a touchdown, and he was aided significantly by the eight sacks the Saints’ defense tallied against the Jets on Sunday.
23) Kansas City Chiefs
- Last Week’s Ranking: 22
- Eliminated from playoff contention
With Patrick Mahomes injured and their playoff hopes already dashed, the rest of the season was always going to be an autopilot performance from the Kansas City Chiefs. After their 26-9 loss to the lowly Titans, though, they’ve reached a low that was perhaps unimaginable for any Andy Reid-coached team.
After Mahomes’ torn ACL, things got even worse when Gardner Minshew suffered a torn ACL of his own in Sunday’s loss to Tennessee. Barring a free agent addition off the street, third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun seems to be the choice at quarterback for the remainder of the Chiefs’ season.
22) Cincinnati Bengals
- Last Week’s Ranking: 26
- Eliminated from playoff contention
The Cincinnati Bengals may have been eliminated from the playoffs already, but that doesn’t mean they have nothing to play for. They scored 45 points in their win against the Dolphins, with Joe Burrow throwing for 309 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in his best game since returning from injury.
Chase Brown dominated to the tune of 109 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns, and Ja’Marr Chase caught nine passes for 109 receiving yards of his own. Given how dominant their offense can be in spurts, it just goes to show how high the Bengals’ ceiling can be with a competent defense.
21) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 19
- Playoff Odds: 37.9%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ failures down the stretch in 2025 have constituted one of the most significant midseason regressions in recent NFL history. After dropping to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ve now lost six of their last seven matchups and no longer hold first place in the NFC South.
If the Buccaneers want to win the division, it will be invaluable to defeat the Dolphins in Week 17. That said, their Week 18 rematch against Carolina will be crucial to getting them back in first place. If they fail to do both of those things, it’ll be the first time they’ve missed the NFL postseason since 2019.
20) Atlanta Falcons
- Last Week’s Ranking: 20
- Eliminated from playoff contention
Though the Atlanta Falcons don’t have a chance to make it to the NFL postseason, they’ve had a slight rebound in recent weeks. They’ve now won consecutive games with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and they defeated the Cardinals 26-19 on Sunday to bump their record up to 6-9 for the year.
Bijan Robinson remained his reliable self, tallying 178 offensive yards and scoring a touchdown against Arizona. Perhaps most entertaining has been the resurgence of Kyle Pitts in recent weeks; in his last four games, he’s caught 31 passes for 395 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
19) Carolina Panthers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 23
- Playoff Odds: 62.1%
Given how competitive the first-place race in the NFC South is, the Carolina Panthers needed an intense late stretch of the season to take over the top spot from the Buccaneers. They did just that when the two teams squared off on Sunday, as Carolina’s 23-20 win puts them at an 8-7 record atop the division.
They’d probably have the worst record of any divisional winner in the NFL, but a divisional win is something to be proud of, regardless. The job isn’t done yet, however, as the Panthers face off against the Buccaneers one more time in Tampa Bay in Week 18.
18) Indianapolis Colts
- Last Week’s Ranking: 17
- Playoff Odds: 3.7%
My, how the mighty have fallen. The Indianapolis Colts’ collapse in the second half of the season was already underway before Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury, but his absence certainly hasn’t helped. On Monday night, however, it was the defense that cost them the game. Indianapolis fell 48-27 to the 49ers, dropping to 8-7 for the year.
Philip Rivers wasn’t bad in Week 16, throwing for 277 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. However, Jonathan Taylor was unable to get going, and the Colts’ defense gave up five passing touchdowns to Brock Purdy. This marks the fifth game in a row that they have lost, all but guaranteeing they’ll miss the playoffs after a stellar 8-3 start.
17) Dallas Cowboys
- Last Week’s Ranking: 16
- Eliminated from playoff contention
With the Eagles’ win on Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Though that came out of their own control, they wouldn’t have been able to stay in contention if Philadelphia won, anyway. The Cowboys’ record dropped to 6-8-1 with their 34-17 loss to the Chargers on Sunday.
Dak Prescott and George Pickens continued their phenomenal connection in Week 16 that they’ve displayed all season. However, Dallas’ defense was unable to shut down the Chargers’ well-rounded offensive attack, a recurring theme for the Cowboys in 2025.
16) Baltimore Ravens
- Last Week’s Ranking: 18
- Playoff Odds: 8.0%
Despite holding the Patriots to a narrow Sunday night matchup, the Baltimore Ravens were unable to get the job done with their 28-24 loss. Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that saw him pulled early from the game, and Tyler Huntley was unable to seal the deal in his relief.
The Ravens rise up a spot since the Cowboys faced a more devastating loss, but they could soon follow Dallas towards playoff elimination. Baltimore needs to win each of their two remaining games, and they need the Steelers to lose in Week 17 to the Browns. If that scenario doesn’t happen, the Ravens will be eliminated from postseason contention.
15) Minnesota Vikings
- Last Week’s Ranking: 15
- Eliminated from playoff contention
It wasn’t a pretty victory, but a win is a win in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings narrowly escaped from New York (or rather, East Rutherford, New Jersey) with a 16-13 win over the Giants. Though they’re eliminated from the NFL postseason and practically have the last-place spot in the NFC North locked up, they still have a respectable 7-8 record in a chaotic season.
J.J. McCarthy suffered a hand injury that removed him from the game, bringing third-string quarterback Max Brosmer back into action. The Vikings’ lack of offensive explosion has arguably been the most significant factor in their regression compared to 2024. But as long as their defense remains strong, they’ll be competitive in a lot of games they play.
14) Pittsburgh Steelers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 14
- Playoff Odds: 92.0%
There were many instances where it seemed like the Pittsburgh Steelers might be in danger of blowing their lead. They actually gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game, although it was called back due to offensive pass interference. In the end, though, they defeated the Lions to bump their record up to 9-6.
When a player punches a fan in the face, and it isn’t the wildest thing to happen in an NFL game. Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions. pic.twitter.com/6B7VV8hSib
— Bob Cornelia (@BobCornelia) December 22, 2025
Mike Tomlin’s illustrious streak of winning seasons has extended to 19 years, as their win on Sunday ensures the Steelers finish with a record above .500. Perhaps more importantly, though, the win gives them some added separation in first place of the AFC North.
13) Los Angeles Chargers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 13
- Playoff appearance clinched
Winners of four straight games, the Los Angeles Chargers have done a great job of stacking victories together as the NFL playoff race heats up. Their most recent win was a decisive 34-17 win over the Cowboys on Sunday.
Most notably, Justin Herbert threw for exactly 300 yards and scored three total touchdowns with no interceptions. Omarion Hampton also stepped up with 85 rushing yards and a touchdown, marking his first rushing touchdown since Week 4, as the standout rookie running back has missed most of the year due to injury.
12) New England Patriots
- Last Week’s Ranking: 11
- Playoff appearance clinched
It was a competitive matchup that went down to the wire. In the end, the New England Patriots were able to secure the narrow 28-24 win over the Ravens on Sunday night. Now sitting at 12-3, they’ve become the second team in the AFC to clinch a spot in this year’s postseason.
Two touchdowns in the fourth quarter helped catapult the Patriots into the lead, and Drake Maye threw for 380 yards and two touchdowns in primetime. It still remains to be seen whether New England ends up as the AFC East champions or if they end up as a Wild Card squad, but making the playoffs after a 4-13 campaign the year before is an incredible feat.
11) Detroit Lions
- Last Week’s Ranking: 10
- Playoff Odds: 4.9%
In an explosive shootout that went down to the very last play, the Detroit Lions just narrowly missed out on what would’ve been an impressive comeback victory over the Steelers on Sunday. They fell to 8-7 as a result of that loss.
After losing against the Steelers, Detroit is no longer mathematically able to win the NFC North. As far as making the playoffs goes, they will need plenty of help going their way for the rest of the regular season. The Lions need to win their remaining two games, and they also need the Packers to lose their next two games.
10) San Francisco 49ers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 12
- Playoff appearance clinched
Though the San Francisco 49ers were competitive with Mac Jones at quarterback, they’ve been playing on another level since Brock Purdy returned from injury. With their Monday night win against the Colts, they’ve now won five games in a row and sit with an 11-4 record.
Coming out of Week 16, the 49ers have clinched a postseason appearance with two games left in the regular season. They figure to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team, though finishing the year with consecutive victories over the Bears and Seahawks could still see them end up as divisional champions and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
9) Green Bay Packers
- Last Week’s Ranking: 8
- Playoff Odds: 95.1%
The Green Bay Packers’ chances of winning the NFC North took a pretty big hit on Saturday, as they blew a ten-point lead to the Bears to fall to 9-5-1 for the 2025 NFL season. Malik Willis played well in Jordan Love’s departure due to a concussion, but the defense was unable to hold down the fort after a stellar first half.
Fortunately for the Packers, they’re still in a pretty good position to make the postseason. They’re a long shot to win the NFC North at 1.5 games out of first place with two weeks left in the season, but they should be a safe bet to appear in the playoffs in some capacity.
8) Chicago Bears
- Last Week’s Ranking: 7
- Playoff appearance clinched
If you had any doubts about whether the Chicago Bears are legit, those questions should be answered by now. They came back from down ten to send the Packers to overtime, then Caleb Williams hit a game-winning 46-yard dart to DJ Moore for a touchdown, sending the Bears to 11-4 for the 2025 NFL season.
The win marked the first time the Bears have defeated the Packers at Soldier Field since 2018, which coincidentally was the last time they won the NFC North. The coaching staff’s consistent and effective halftime adjustments, combined with Williams’ clutch play, could make them a postseason dark horse this year.
7) Houston Texans
- Last Week’s Ranking: 4
- Playoff Odds: 96.3%
Just like that, the Houston Texans are winners of their last seven games. Their latest victory was a narrow one, but as always, every win counts in the NFL. They’re now 10-5 and in a firm position for a playoff spot after defeating the Raiders 23-21 on Sunday.
It wasn’t the flashiest outing from the Texans’ offense, having only scored one touchdown on that side of the ball against Las Vegas. However, Derek Stingley Jr. returned a Geno Smith interception for a touchdown, and the likes of Derek Barnett, Danielle Hunter, and Will Anderson Jr. each tallied sacks to derail the Raiders’ efficiency.
6) Philadelphia Eagles
- Last Week’s Ranking: 9
- Playoff appearance clinched
Thanks in part to a dominant performance from Saquon Barkley reminiscent of last year’s OPOY-winning campaign, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Commanders on Saturday to improve to 29-18. The win clinched the NFC North crown for the Eagles, making them the first team in the last two decades to win the division in consecutive seasons.
It seems as though some of the Eagles’ most significant question marks had been answered in the win over Washington, including Barkley’s performance and the connection between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. That could spell disaster for whichever Wild Card team meets them in the playoffs.
5) Buffalo Bills
- Last Week’s Ranking: 6
- Playoff appearance clinched
It was a closer game than the Buffalo Bills had likely hoped, but they stayed competitive in the race atop the AFC East and won 23-20 over the Browns on Sunday. The win brought their record up to 11-4 and gave them their fourth win in a row in the final stretch of the 2025 NFL season.
Heading into a presumed playoff appearance, it’s clear the Bills have a dangerous weapon in James Cook. He finished Sunday with 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns, further adding to what’s been an All-Pro season for Buffalo’s star running back.
4) Denver Broncos
- Last Week’s Ranking: 3
- Playoff appearance clinched
After 11 consecutive victories, the Denver Broncos’ incredible winning streak came to an end on Sunday. They fell to the Jaguars 34-20 in Week 16 in disappointing fashion, bringing their record down to 12-3.
Despite their loss at home to Jacksonville this week, the Broncos remain one of the best teams in the NFL. Their dominant defense didn’t show up against the Jaguars as it has for most of the season, but they should still be considered a strong AFC contender based on their overall performance this year.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars
- Last Week’s Ranking: 4
- Playoff appearance clinched
The Jacksonville Jaguars continued their winning streak with their sixth win in a row on Sunday, and this one was arguably their most impressive victory yet. They marched into Denver and handed the Broncos their first win since Week 3, defeating them 34-20 and improving to 11-4 in the process.
After a slow start to the year, Trevor Lawrence has been practically unstoppable in recent weeks. In his last four games, he’s scored 14 total touchdowns with no interceptions, leading the Jaguars to wins in each of those games. He’s getting hot at the right time, which is dangerous for the rest of the AFC.
2) Seattle Seahawks
- Last Week’s Ranking: 2
- Playoff appearance clinched
Although the Seattle Seahawks defeated the Rams and improved their score in PFSN’s analytical model on Thursday night, they still rank as the No. 2-graded team in the model. That said, they’d surely take that if it meant beating a divisional rival and propelling into first place in the NFC West.
The 38-37 win in overtime improves Seattle to 12-3 for the year. They face two potential playoff teams in their final two weeks in the Panthers and 49ers, but there’s a very real chance the Seahawks win out and secure home-field advantage for the entirety of the postseason.
1) Los Angeles Rams
- Last Week’s Ranking: 1
- Playoff appearance clinched
One of the first teams in the NFL to secure a playoff spot in Week 15, the Los Angeles Rams fell just short in an overtime brawl with the Seahawks on Thursday night. Despite the loss and falling behind them in the standings, they still have the top spot in PFSN’s power ranking model.
Matthew Stafford strengthened his NFL MVP chances with a 457-yard, three-touchdown outing on the road against the Seahawks. Puka Nacua dominated to the tune of 12 catches, 225 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Rams’ defense can rebound back to form after a down game against Seattle, they’ll be just fine in the postseason.
